We estimate total iPhone installed base hit 715 million, including 228 million of second-hand devices, in December 2016, with year-on-year growth of 20%. We model year-end installed base to grow 13% in CY17 and 9% in CY18. We estimate, by the end of 2018, there will be 300 million second-hand iPhones in use.
We are refreshing our highly granular iPhone installed base model. We estimate 31% of the new phone installed base will be 2 years or older at the time of the September 2017 launch event. Although refreshment cycles are lengthening to 2.5+ years, which means not everyone will take advantage, the availability of un-upgraded phones will serve as a tailwind as Apple launches the new models. — BMO Capital Markets analyst Tim Long
“Long writes that while the target of doubling service revenue is ambitious, it’s still achievable,” Rivas reports. “Long has an Outperform rating and $160 price target on Apple.”
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MacDailyNews Take: Apple’s Services business is actually much larger than most people think since Apple only quotes the one-third the company takes of total purchases. Doubling it in 4 years seems eminently doable.
Citi ups Apple price target to $160 on impending iPhone supercycle – March 6, 2017