“Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster this morning reiterates an Overweight rating on Apple, and a $160 price target, writing that ‘we believe investors may begin to focus on [Apple Watch’s] opening weekend metrics,'” Tiernan Ray reports for Barron’s.
“But tracking initial sales of Apple Watch is not like opening-weekend sales of the iPhone or iPad, because the Watch is going to be included in the ‘Other’ category of revenue, Apple has said,” Ray reports. “And so the company ‘may or may not release opening-weekend sales figures.'”
“Munster is projecting Apple will sell 300,000 pre-orders in the first 24 hours and 1 million units in the first weekend,” Ray reports. “On CNBC‘s ‘Squawk Alley’ this morning, Munster discussed his report, saying it was ‘the most mysterious’ product debut ever perhaps for Apple. ‘This first wave is mostly the fanboys,’ said Munster of initial sales.”
Read more in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: What do you think, is Gene to low, too high, or just about right?
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Readers “Fred Mertz” and “Edward W.” for the heads up.]
Only Goldilocks can answer that question effectively!
The problem arises in what the three bears are going to say about Goldilocks answer! 🙂
Baby Bear, “Someone tried my Apple watch!”
Daddy Bear, ” Someone tried my Apple Edition watch!”
Mummy Bear, ” Someone tried my Apple Sports watch and is still wearing it!!!!”
Goldilocks, Oh! Oooo!!!
Way below what it will really be in Pre-Orders April 10. 👀💥😱😃😜🚀
More that a million pre-orders April 10. More than 2 million through April 12.💥
Easily!
Based on the talk at work, those numbers are quite low. A number of people plan to pre-order as soon as the button goes live. Quite a few are interested in the SS version and the Milanese band seems popular, as well.
way too low
“May hit 1 million units”? Apple will have at least 10 times that many “sold” before the end of the pre-order period. If he’s saying Apple will sell 1 million at Apple Stores during the opening weekend, in addition to the units already on order by then, that may be accurate. It depends on how many Apple sets aside for the opening weekend Apple Store inventory. If Apple sets aside 1 million units, that’s how many get sold (before the waiting list starts). If it’s 2 million units, that’s how many get sold…
I think 1 million might be a realistic estimate if no one had seen or touched an Apple Watch before April 24. But, people will be able to see, hold, and wear the Apple Watch in stores for 2 weeks before the launch day. I believe this will have a dramatic result on launch day sales. People who would not have pre-ordered an Apple Watch otherwise will see them in the stores and will “fall in love” or “have to have one” or however you want to put it.
I think 2 million + opening weekend sales will be more accurate.
But Gene, you forgot to mention the new TV that Apple is coming out with this year. 😉
Folks, SHHHHHHHHHHH on the pre-orders April 10th. I want to be sure I get mine before the floodgates open!
Yeah, let’s start making people think they have to preorder in store with an appointment, so we can get ours at midnight.
As Apple is very likely to sell out during that first weekend, and as such the actual number sold will be constrained by production and not customer interest, I believe the relevant numbers are not how many will be sold on opening day or during that first weekend. Unless a company still has product sitting on the shelf at the end of that first weekend (looking at you Microsoft & Samsung), the number sold is somewhat meaningless.
The relevant numbers are how many Apple will sell in the first 30 and 90 days. Those numbers will really tell the tale as to how popular the Apple Watch is.
I believe Apple should be very happy if they put 4 million into customers’ hands in that first 30 days with a backlog of no more than 30 days. Then Apple should be extremely happy if they put more than 10 million into people’s hands by 23 July (90 days) with a backlog of no more than a week. Even then, it would not surprise me if Apple exceeded those numbers.
Shadow, let’s make a fun bet. I will bet one of two things will happen, maybe both. 1) Apple will sell 4 M in 30 days (tho I doubt they announce that) 2) backlog will be 6 weeks by April 30.
That is, I think u underestimate Watch selling.
Winner can have a beverage of their choice. Loser has to wash the car or something.
I wonder how long it takes on opening night to be sold out. I’m guessing mere minutes, pending the reliability of their site when the wildness begins.
I doubt this will be unlike iPhone 6 midnight preorders. Everyone crazy enough to be a midnight preordered of iPhone is more than likely going to be doing the same thing with the Watch.
Uhhhh, make that 1,000,001, Gene 🙂
Way too low.