Apple ripe for a correction?

“Apple Inc. shares may be too hot for their own good,” Sue Chang reports for MarketWatch. “The stock has steadily climbed since the beginning of the year, making it among the top performers in the market year to date. But its phenomenal success has also put it right in the heart of “extreme overbought” territory, triggering fears that Apple shares are ripe for a major correction, according to Bespoke.”

“‘It’s currently at the very top of its uptrend channel, so we would expect some sort of ‘cool-off’ period to begin soon,’ Bespoke said in its analysis,” Chang reports. “At the rate it’s going, Apple’s market cap may even top $900 billion in a few months, according to Wall Street.”

Chang reports. “Of course, Apple fan and major investor Carl Icahn argues the market is undervaluing Apple. He said earlier this month that the stock is worth $216 a share, which would give it a market cap of $1.3 trillion.”

Read more in the full article here.

16 Comments

  1. Typical market manipulation. Nothing has changed with regard to how Apple does it’s business. There is every reason to believe that the future looks bright for Apple’s shareholders, but AAPL might be ripe for a bit of manipulation by speculators.

    1. As soon as AAPL goes down people on this board are quick to yell “MANIPULATION! MANIPULATION!” The fact is AAPL has risen about 28.5% in the last two months. That’s an incredible feat for a stock (It would take about thirty years at today’s bank savings-account rates to see that kind of profit). The fact is, people take profits, and stocks experience temporary declines for various reasons. The more AAPL goes up without small corrections, the more precipitous and longer-lasting the fall when that correction does occur. Such corrections are healthy, and ensure that stocks rise in a more steady, solid way. So, people, please stop looking for sinister, ulterior motives every time AAPL declines for a period.

      In addition, with a stock as liquid and widely-traded as AAPL, such “Manipulation” would be extremely difficult to pull off.

      1. Good overall comment. One correction: no length of time that actually makes a bank savings account profitable, because of inflation.

        To actually be profitable, a savings account would need an interest rate greater than the average inflation rate, which right now is approximately 2% a year in America. No banks offer savings accounts with interest rates that high, so they all slowly lose money to inflation over time.

        Savings accounts are still useful because of their liquidity (how easy is it to move cash in and out), and because they reduce losses from inflation. But they should not be considered a source of profit.

        1. I think you mean you lose purchasing value over time in a savings account.. The actual monetary amount in the account will go up but the cost of things you could buy will go up faster. Agreed, savings account are currently at best, more useful to slow down the loss of purchasing power.

      2. If you’ve ever held AAPL, you would have seen many times how easy it is to manipulate such a volatile stock.

        One or two analysts start airing doubts publicly and then a few more join in and take their profits. Before you know it, enough doubt has been generated for the stock to fall, even though nothing tangible has changed.

        These ‘corrections’ are a regular part of AAPL’s cycle and I try to take advantage of them and invest in more shares when it happens, but I’d still prefer that the stock was not manipulated by speculators. However there’s nothing that small investors can do about it other than to buy up the shares of people who have been duped into selling them for less than they are really worth.

    1. You took the words right out of my mouth. Mark (above) talked about the 28.5% rise in the last 2 months. My thoughts were that we are ALREADY in a correction cycle. When rise reaches about 40-50% and the P/E ratio reaches the mid-20s, then the correction will be over!!

    2. Part of the uncertainty associated with AAPL is that over 50% of their revenue (139.6B of 222.4B according to Trefis:AAPL page) is due solely to iPhone device sales. It is not surprising then that investors will move erratically on any news that affects it whatever it may be.

  2. Annnnnnnd…cue the trolls. Slithering from the shadows seeking self-aggrandizement, Colin Gillis pops up on CNBC proclaiming Apple is finished and has set his low price target of $115. Dufus still blabbers, “Apple can’t…” Or “Apple won’t…” Not eve iCal-worthy.

  3. “Of course, Apple fan and major investor Carl Icahn argues the market is undervaluing Apple”

    To call Icahn a “fan” of anything but profit is a joke. If anything he’s usually more hater then fanboy.

    If Icahn is a fan, there’s a solid reason.

    1. How many of those shares are actively traded? The vast majority are in index funds, retirement funds, and mutual funds. Those don’t move either way (and they make more long-term gains than those of us who try to time the stock).

      There are trading programs that the Market Makers run, which exaggerate small movements. They see AAPL drop a dollar, they sell a concentrated amount, and then watch the other programs pick up on it, and sell. That causes a 2-3% drop, maybe over a couple of days. Happens with great regularity in the weeks approach Apple’s earnings reports.

      Once down 2-3%, they jump back in, and the mere fact that they buy a lot of shares in a hurry spikes the stock and they make a nice profit, even as the stock’s position hasn’t really changed.

      So you either guess when that’s gonna happen (and usually miss out on the good parts), or you keep it simple and buy and hold. But this is a definite thing.

  4. AAPL owes me a living because I put some money into the stock. Everybody is manipulating the market because I don’t know how it works. AAPL should triple my money in 4 months. When I sell at the peak, it is OK but if others do it, that is stock manipulation because it drives the price down.

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