“Apple will release a television in 2013 for between $1,500 and $2,000, but it won’t instantly revolutionize the industry, says Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster,” Eric Mack reports for CNET. “You have to wonder how much time it takes to trim a hedge that big.”
“Munster says the content offerings on an Apple-branded set might not initially be that much different than that of the currently available Apple TV set-top box, but that within five years he would expect the company to push back against the current cable and satellite TV models and move toward more DVR in the cloud and unbundled channels that consumers can pick and choose,” Mack reports. “Just imagine how much smoother Thanksgiving will go with the ability to add Lifetime and the Golf Channel to your bill for just the month of November, keeping your more opinionated relatives occupied and away from each other’s throats.”
Mack reports, “Some other features Munster says to expect in his latest missive include Siri, compatibility with third-party devices and the ability to run apps and games. He also says to look for screen sizes in the 42- to 55-inch range.”
Read more in the full article here.
Poor Gene.
Please give poor Gene a rest. Apple will do what Apple will do when it comes to TV. We know the general record of anal-ysts when it comes to predicting new Apple products.
Gene has been predicting an Apple TV’s imminent release for five years. He has specked it out several times. It has never happened. He is the major drum beater for Apple to do this. This current piece is truly underwhelming. Already he is being touted in the internet press as someone who is often correct. Not on this issue.
Gene, Gene, Gene…there will be no branded standalone television set, you need to let that go and move on with your life…such as it is.
Of course there WILL be a complete Apple TV at some point. Just because someone predicts something for “five years,” it doesn’t mean that prediction is wrong THIS year, or NEXT year.
Apple would not bother with the current Apple TV box, even as a “hobby,” if there was no goal to eventually GO BIG with a complete Apple TV. A device that sells for $99 (with at most $20-30 profit per unit) has limited overall profit potential. That may be fine for iPod shuffle, but not for the “next big thing” after iPad.
What “Gene” is wrong about is this bit
> Munster says the content offerings on an Apple-branded set might not initially be that much different than that of the currently available Apple TV set-top box
If the “iTV” is just an HDTV with an integrated Apple TV box, then it’s just a more expensive hobby. And if that’s all Apple has going for iTV, then Apple will not do it. They’ll just keep going with the current Apple TV box (“hobby”) until all the pieces are in place for iTV. When Apple does eventually release its complete TV product, it will be much more. There will be a reason (or multiple reasons) why “everyone” (everyone who watches TV) will want one.
Just because someone predicts something for “five years,” it doesn’t mean that prediction is wrong THIS year, or NEXT year.
Tell that to those who have been predicting the success of Linux on the desktop for close to 10 years.
Ken, I usually agree with you, but not this time.
As for profit, I believe it was John Gruber who put forward the idea that the TV will be cheap hardware made profitable by media sales, as opposed to the music and software model of cheap media available for expensive Apple hardware. As people have grown accustomed to cheap video devices., this makes more sense to me. Also, the media producers are likely to hold out against low prices on their product, so even at 30%, Apple will profit more.
Hey, even “Laura” (don’t even remember her last name), the “analyst,” was eventually RIGHT about AAPL dropping when she gave her infamous and ridiculed SELL guidance (while it was between $100 and $150). AAPL went up to just above $200 a share, then dropped to below $80 (due to the 2009 financial crisis). Her reasons were all wrong, but her advice to sell, was eventually correct.
And Gene is mostly wrong about what “iTV” will be and what it will do. BUT he IS right that there will be a complete TV from Apple, eventually…
> As for profit, I believe it was John Gruber who put forward the idea that the TV will be cheap hardware made profitable by media sales
PLEASE, that’s nonsense. Apple is NOT going to follow the “Kindle Fire” business model. Apple will continue to profit mostly from sales of cool hardware; media/content/app sales will continue to be a “value-added” service that is provided to promote more hardware sales, like Siri and iCloud. A $99 device, even if sold in large numbers, does not have the profit potential to make it the MAIN weapon in an assault on a new (well-established) market; that’s why Apple still calls it a “hobby.” But a $999 device does…
Apple has the “hook,” that makes its complete TV into a iPad-like “must have” product, already figured out. That’s what Steve Jobs meant when he said he finally “cracked” it. Apple just needs to get all pieces of this new strategy in place and time it just right. It will be the cleverest Apple move yet. I’ve described my personal guess a few times already, so I won’t repeat it here. 🙂