According to the latest forecasts from Informa Telecoms & Media, Android tablet sales will be neck and neck with the iPad in 2015 with 87 million and 90 million unit sales, respectively. Although Apple has dominated this space since the launch of the iPad in 2010, this is set to change with the introduction of low-cost Android tablets, the wider launch of Android 3.0 (Honeycomb) and the possibility of other major brands such as Amazon launching tablets on the OS.
“We have seen a huge explosion in the tablet market in recent years, driven primarily by the iPad, and we estimate that the market will go from strength to strength, growing from under 20 million tablets sold in 2010, to over 230 million in 2015,” comments David McQueen, principal analyst at Informa Telecoms & Media, in the press release. “We expect Apple to retain its leading market share until 2015 but only just. From 2013, as cheaper and more advanced Android tablets enter the market, we forecast that sales will pick up considerably, eventually surpassing iPad sales in 2016.”
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Apple currently has 75% of the market but this will drop to just 39% in 2015. Meanwhile Android will see a huge increase in its market share, as the devices and the ecosystem around the platform improve. By 2015, it will have 38% market share, putting it on a par with the iPad.
“Three factors have proven to be decisive in the success and failure of tablets: brand; access to distribution channels; and product quality, including the application environment offered. At the moment, the iPad leads in all three areas but Apple’s edge is likely to wane as the quality of the competing products and application environments improves,” adds McQueen.
It is anticipated that, once Windows 8.0 is launched, there will be a variety of tablets available in the market based on Intel and ARM architecture. These are most likely to include a Nokia device as well as a number from the traditional PC vendors.
RIM’s PlayBook is expected to show only modest growth early on following its launch as some mobile operators have shown to be reticent to carry the device as they are struggling with the business model owing to it initially being Wi-Fi only. However, volumes will be buoyed by the inclusion of Android apps on the device and the introduction of cellular connectivity (HSPA+ and LTE versions are expected before end-2011).
“Most mobile operators are expected to focus on supporting iOS and Android tablets in line with demand, and their current indifferent support for Windows, BlackBerry OS (QnX), webOS and MeeGo tablets will prove decisive in shaping consumers’ purchasing decisions in the short term. However, it is those devices that can also dominate the consumer-electronics sector and online retail channels as well as nurture their current partnerships with the mobile operators that will win out,” concludes McQueen.
Source: Informa UK Ltd.
MacDailyNews Take: iCal’ed.
In a worst case scenario, following the logic published in the article, I can see Apple dropping to 50-60%, but only if Windows has actually come along with a product that is massively adopted by end users, (and combined with whatever state Android driven Tabs are in, et. al, also assuming massive adoption by then).
It’s a fairly pretentious little article, but it’s not far fetched based on the way the world has traditionally gone with regard to Apple products. But alas, I for one am thrilled to report from my POV that, it seems the world is learning a new way – one thing is for sure – time will tell.
Competition can be a beautiful thing, just remember that you’re not voting with opinions expressed verbally and in writing – you’re voting with your dollars. If you don’t want to see Windows spring back from having one foot in the grave, then by all means, pick something that doesn’t use Windows OS. And if you honestly prefer Apple iOS over Android, then put your money where your mouth is.
I’ve heard of sativa and indica, but never informa. Must be potent if it causes this sort of delusion though.
John Gruber of Daring Fireballs has this to say about BLOATED fantasy android tablet numbers:
“Breakdown by Google of Android devices in use by screen size. “Xlarge” is defined as any screen 7 inches or larger. By Google’s count, only 0.9% of activated in-use devices are tablets. Multiply that by the 135 million total Android “devices” that Larry Page announced last week during Google’s quarterly analyst call, and you get 1.21 million tablets. Compare that to the 28.73 million iPads Apple sold through the end of June”
We are not children anymore and should not fight over useless things like market share. It is the profit margin that matters the most!! Just ask Dell 🙂
With these light weight operating systems, the key will be can Apple successfully continue to maintain tight security over using the device for business, banking, and other sensitive transactions. In my mind, that will be the big differentiation between Android, Windoze and iOS. The walled garden so to speak, will look better and better as more and more viruses and compromised software is introduced into Android and Windoze ecosystems. And performance will be better without having to run all the security software.
Nice analysis. Couldnt agree with you more. Security is paramount. Also the ability to have a cohesive user experience, where developers know the rules, the customer knows what to expect when buying these apps and Apple keeps the product quality high and design remains the highest priority.
Man, Somebody should do a intervention with whoever wrote this article, because he is smoking way too much crack. Seriously, get help and stop smoking crack!!!!
Forget iPad, Android… How in the heck can anyone forecast 4 years in advance with any kind of surety? Informa has just informed everyone that they’re bush league forecasters.
Most of these analysts erroneously assume a mature, static market. The underlying premise is that nothing will change; Apple won’t make any significant improvements or innovations, and no one else will either, except to achieve parity with the current state-of-the-art. Therefore, so the thinking goes, Android (or Windows Phone 7, or Blackberry, or HP, etc.) will eventually catch-up to Apple.
Typical rearview-mirror thinking. To paraphrase Wayne Gretzky via Steve Jobs, these guys are “skating to where the puck is, not where it’s going to be.” That’s why they’re analysts.
Of course, this is not to mention the other problems with this line of reasoning: In the world of technology, while it might be possible to predict six months or a year ahead, four years is an eternity. And, you can’t compare either the PC market or the smartphone market to tablets. In a market this nascent and unique, there is no reliable forecasting model.
It’s also interesting to point out that almost no one predicted any of Apple’s prior successes. This isn’t surprising by itself; no one has a crystal ball for any company. But in the conservative culture of economic forecasting, there’s always been a strain of incredulousness when it comes to Apple. To many, Apple is still this flaky company with the weird, California-hippy-metaphysical corporate culture. Throughout its history, though, Apple has continually re-invented itself, and refuses to play by the rules — and thus has continuously defied common expectations.
Reminds me of TV sports analysts who use technology to freeze a part of the action on TV, then move some players around to illustrate how the play might have succeeded instead of failed. Problem is, the model assumes the opponents would have remained in the same positions, which is ridiculous since they would not have reacted the same way to different moves.
Well said!
Yeah, those low cost tablets will make all the difference. Sure, certainly, off course !
More cheap and more crappy. Isn’t that why they are not selling any now?
What a bunch of jackasses writing pure doodoo.
@UberMac
“low cost tablets will make all the difference. Sure, certainly, off course !
More cheap and more crappy. Isn’t that why they are not selling any now?
What a bunch of jackasses writing pure doodoo.'”
THAT IS ‘ANDY DUNG’, the Geekscum version of Doodoo.
They even have a super cheap POS called just that ‘Andy Tablet’, sort of like a lab rabbit pellet.
Hey “Informa Telecoms & Media” I’ve got your 2015 Android market share right here!
The reason they say 2015 is because many of them will be retired by that time and there will be no one who will remember that quote … but us!!!!!
None of them mentioned the fact that Apple is suing the pants off the Android phone makers. Why wouldn’t the same fate befall the tablet makers?
Of course Android will capture more market share, just like in the phone biz. But who cares? Apple will remain immensely profitable.
Remember, there are no carriers involved here… Android effectively has ZERO advantages
Net Applications says from their stats of web usage: Android tablets have 3% market share vs 96.5% for iPad.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/blog/2011/jul/06/ipad-browsing-web-domination-android
What he meant to say was that by 2015 the Android tablets will catch up to the iPad of 2010.
Great, another one of those “Apple is awesome and, oh by the way, will stop growing next year” predictions. How in the world can they predict that iPad growth will crash and burn from plus 250 % this year to just 25 % average for the next 5 years and NOT spend 10000 words on a thorough explanation what devastating factors there are Apple will completely lose its mind and deliver the worst performance since the 1990s?
I’ll tell you what will happen. Apple will break the 90 million per year barrier in 2012, or 6 months later at the latest. To predict 2015 is pointless because nobody besides Tim Cook has any real insight into sales patterns on the tablet market.
iCal’ed bitches and for the last fuckin’ time, Android is NOT a fucking product, it’s an OS and a lousy one I might add!
HP tablet is a product, Acer tablet is a product, Samsung Tablet is a product but Android ain’t no fucking product!
It is a malware piece of shit OS that Google TRIED to copy from Apple and they did it very badly! Apple’s iOS is a breath of fresh tech air, whereas Android is a turd on a screen! So I can’t see Turdoid BASED tablets to close the gap anytime soon, and oh, don’t forget to flush the toilet!
Because this worked so well for the iPod killers.
Nobody can not predict