Apple’s first foldable iPhone could contribute about $14 billion in revenue in the December quarter, according to Morgan Stanley, which called next week’s product event the company’s most consequential since the iPhone X.
Analyst Erik Woodring described the device as the biggest iPhone form-factor change since 2017. The bank expects strong early demand, but tight supply, with 7 million to 8 million units built in the second half of 2026 and as many as 20 million over the first product cycle. Shipments are expected to start in October or early November.
Morgan Stanley also framed the launch as a test of Apple’s pricing power. Rising NAND and DRAM costs are expected to push Pro models more than $200 higher year over year. The key upgrade on the iPhone 18 Pro is likely TSMC’s 2-nanometer process, aimed at stronger on-device AI performance. The bank said Apple appears more focused on securing components than finding buyers, though memory supply could still limit near-term production.
The September 9th event will also mark a leadership shift. New CEO John Ternus is expected to introduce the foldable — rumored as iPhone Fold or Ultra — alongside what Morgan Stanley called the broadest like-for-like iPhone price increases in company history. Woodring kept an Overweight rating and a $360 price target, noting Apple stock often outperforms into launch events, but can fade on the day itself. Sustained gains, he said, will depend on later estimate revisions.
Other analysts have put the foldable at roughly $2,300 to $2,500. Independent checks from Ming-Chi Kuo have pointed to similarly constrained early volumes and the possibility of weeks-long wait times.
MacDailyNews Take: We’ll see how supply holds up when pre-orders beign – likely within a minute or two. If you want one of the first foldable iPhones, you’ll need to pre-order within the first minutes!
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