Ming-Chi Kuo warns Apple Vision Pro shipment growth may be below market expectations

TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo is warning that Apple Vision Pro shipment growth may be below what the market expects.

Apple Vision Pro: Apple’s first spatial computer
Apple Vision Pro: Apple’s first spatial computer

Ming-Chi Kuo via Medium:

Based on some component suppliers’ maximum production capacity estimates, Vision Pro shipments in 2024 will be at most 400,000–600,000 units, which is less than the market expectation of more than 1 million units.

Apple may have canceled the low-cost Vision Pro version plan (with market consensus expecting a 2025 launch). Unless Apple significantly reduces the price of Vision Pro, the anticipated significant shipment growth in Vision Pro shipments starting in 2025 may not materialize.

The Vision Pro 2 could enter mass production by 1H27 at the latest, suggesting there may be no hardware updates for the Vision Pro in the coming years.

From a technical point of view, I believe that the Vision Pro will undoubtedly provide users with an excellent experience. However, the question is why users need this product. The Vision Pro may take longer than the market expects to become the next star product of the iPhone.

MacDailyNews Take: “The question is why users need this product.”

“The Macintosh uses an experimental pointing device called a ‘mouse.’ There is no evidence that people want to use these things.” — John C. Dvorak, bloated gasbag, San Francisco Examiner, February 19, 1984

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    1. Ridiculous statement. You could say that about any computer.

      The market demand for this device and its successors is UNLIMITED. This will be the most sought-after product of this decade. Every single unit Apple produces will be sold for years to come and sales of the v. 2 Vision Pro will be 100x whatever v. 1 sells next year.

      People will finance these (it costs far less than a decent used car) to get their hands on the most futuristic piece of consumer technology since the iPhone in 2007.

  1. Fear, uncertainty and doubt (often shortened to FUD) is a manipulative propaganda tactic used in sales, marketing, public relations, politics, polling and cults. FUD is generally a strategy to influence perception by disseminating negative and dubious or false information, and is a manifestation of the appeal to fear.
    So typical……

  2. The success of Apple Vision Pro will largely rest upon the software. The collective genius of what the developers can create for this hardware will be determinative of how it will be used and the interest level of customers. The hardware could be amazing but if the software is hokey sells will suffer. Therefore, it might be the second generation Apple Vision Pro that sees scalable sales.

    The learning curve for the developers is going to be huge. They have to move from imaging software that functions on a limited two dimensional screen to a limitless three dimensional platform. Bust or boon, this is an amazing opportunity for both Apple and the developers.

    It will be fun to watch if the combined power of Apple’s hardware and developers creativity will be strong enough to jump the curve on how the world thinks about computing. Only time will tell.

  3. Apple will sell every one they can make.

    Apple understands the need to provide a killer experience while the killer apps are being developed.

    People will be buying them for all kinds of reasons (films, sports, concerts, games) and will discover they can get a lot done with it (productivity).

    That’s more than enough to get this platform off the ground.

    And then the killer apps will show up, and they will be irreproducible on any other platform or device.

    1. Remember when all of the analyst trash was saying that Apple “must have a killer Apple Watch app”?

      It turned out that notifications on your wrist without having to look at your iPhone ARE the “killer app”.

      Apple won’t do this, but they could release it like the iPhone and only support their own software and it’d still be sold out for the next 5 years. They’ve already ported all of their own apps into Vision OS and it sounds like it’ll be automatic for a base level functionality for all iOS/iPadOS apps.

      3rd party developers will be icing on the cake to appeal to various niches with standout mass-appeal apps supplementing the core Apple apps, like on all our Apple devices now.

      Sure, individuals will have their own preferred “killer apps” but the entire UX itself is the key. It’s not about doing things in a totally new way, but familiar computing experiences within a novel paradigm that sparks creativity and imagination.

      Like being inside of the internet or a computer.

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