TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo expects Apple to finally deploy its own modem chips starting in 2025.
Huawei purchases 23–25 million and 40–42 million mobile phone SoCs from Qualcomm in 2022 and 2023, respectively.
However, it’s expected that Huawei’s new models will fully adopt the new self-developed Kirin processors starting in 2024, so Qualcomm will not only lose Huawei’s orders completely from 2024 onwards but also face the risk of a decline in shipments to non-Huawei Chinese brand clients due to the competition from Huawei.
Qualcomm’s SoC shipments to Chinese smartphone brands in 2024 are expected to be at least 50–60 million units lower than in 2023 due to Huawei’s adoption of the new Kirin processors and will continue to decline year by year.
My latest survey indicates that Qualcomm will likely start a price war as early as 4Q23 to maintain market share in the Chinese market, which will be detrimental to profits.
Two other potential risks for Qualcomm are that the market share of Exynos 2400 in Samsung mobile phones is higher than expected, and Apple is expected to use its own modem chip starting in 2025. I will discuss more details in the future.
MacDailyNews Take: When Ming-Chi Kuo talks, people listen. And extortionist Qualcomm’s coming quandary will be very well-deserved indeed.
See also:
• Huawei’s Buran? New smartphone shows 5G capabilities despite U.S. tech sanctions – September 1, 2023
• Kuo: Apple 5G modem failure causes 2024 iPhone SE 4 cancelation – January 6, 2023
• Apple’s homegrown modems are taking longer than expected – November 7, 2022
• Apple has begun developing their own cellular modem; Qualcomm shares drop – December 11, 2020
Please help support MacDailyNews. Click or tap here to support our independent tech blog. Thank you!
Support MacDailyNews at no extra cost to you by using this link to shop at Amazon.
