Gene Munster: Early iPhone 14 demand signs are strong

Longtime Apple analyst Gene Munster has found that an expansion or compression of iPhone delivery times over the years have been a leading indicator of demand. 2022’s delivery times hint that early iPhone 14 demand is strong.

Available in a 6.1-inch display and a new, larger 6.7-inch size, iPhone 14 and iPhone 14 Plus feature impressive camera upgrades and groundbreaking new safety capabilities.
Available in a 6.1-inch display and a new, larger 6.7-inch size, iPhone 14 and iPhone 14 Plus feature impressive camera upgrades and groundbreaking new safety capabilities.

Gene Munster for Loup Funds:

Three days into the iPhone 14 cycle, we looked at average lead times in eight countries for the base iPhone 14, Pro and Pro Max models and found an average lead time of 3.1 weeks. This is a longer average than we observed in 2021 and 2020 (measured as 2.0 weeks) as well as the cycles of 2018 and 2019 (measured as 2.5 weeks).

The 3.1-week average is the highest since the 5.5-week average in Fall 2017 preceding iPhone revenue growth of +18% in FY18.

Extrapolating lead times to sales is more of an art than a science given that we don’t know how many phones Apple is able to produce. That said, longer lead times have historically been an indicator of healthy demand and shorter lead times an indicator of softer demand.

MacDailyNews Note: Loup also observed that Apple Watch lead times were slightly longer than last year with Series 8 running just under 3 weeks, inline with Loup’s Series 7 lead time observations last year. Loup also saw slightly longer Apple Watch Ultra lead times at just over 4 weeks which results in an uptick in the overall Apple Watch lead times.

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