Morgan Stanley: Apple likely to outperform Sept. quarter estimates by a healthy margin

Morgan Stanley has raised their iPhone shipment forecast for Apple’s September (fiscal Q421) to 52 million units (from 49 million) to be more in line with the shipment total implied by 50 million iPhone builds in the quarter. With investors focused on December quarter iPhone sales, analyst Katy Huberty doesn’t expect September’s earnings — even if they beat by a healthy margin — to move the stock.

Apple's iPhone 13 Pro
Apple’s iPhone 13 Pro

Philip Elmer-DeWitt for Apple 3.0:

From a note to Morgan Stanley clients that landed on my desktop Friday:

Estimates likely to move higher post-earnings, but we don’t view earnings as a material stock catalyst. Our quarterly checks indicate Apple is likely to outperform September quarter Street estimates by a healthy margin (MS F4Q revenue is 4% above consensus estimates) on the back of stronger than expected iPhone shipments and continued Services outperformance.

MacDailyNews Take: As with the general consensus, Huberty sees tough compares in fiscal 2022 for Apple vs. the boom times seen during the response to COVID-19 that juiced work-from-home tech purchasing in 2020 and 2021.

When Apple reports fiscal Q421 earnings results on October 28th, we’ll have them for you as soon as they are available, right around 1:30pm Pacific / 4:30pm Eastern and follow that with live notes from Apple’s confernce call with analysts starting at 2pm Pacific / 5pm Eastern.

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  1. Yeah, yeah, talk is cheap. Will it be a healthy enough of a margin to move the stock higher? Apple already had three consecutive good earnings reports, so maybe the next one will actually move the stock higher. We’ll see what the big investors think. So far, they haven’t been excited by anything Apple has done.

  2. You seem to easily forget the AAPLs gains in ’21 (say nothing of ’20). It’s up 25% in the last 6 months. Please tell me where you are getting approx 50% gain (compounding) yearly in a stable, low risk investment?

    Sure, I want it to rise (more), but let’s be realistic. Besides, there are few analysts NOT expecting another 10% > on top of current gains. These estimates don’t include dividends.

  3. I just don’t care. I’ll still use my five year old iMac and old iPhone but I’m not buying or replacing them. Sorry I just don’t have any respect for Apple anymore. Maybe it’ll affect their share price and they’ll change some of their policies but then again I just don’t care.

    1. If one is a “pro,” or close, you want to use tools that help complete the job quicker/more smoothly.
      If true, you’d “care” about the 2-latest Apple portables. What’s been noted publicly from 3rd party sources, the “Pro & Max” are true beasts. They do NOT fit into the iteration realm. These are true industry innovations and have put all other pc makers on their heels.

      Btw, I happen to agree with Apple’s “slippage” in VERY important “non-tech” areas. Imo, the jury is still out per the devolution…’tis concerning, nonetheless.

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