Gene Munster: Mac growth will continue for years, powered by Apple Silicon and remote work

Loup Ventures’ Gene Munster and David Stokman believe the accelerating digital transformation will continue to drive Mac growth rates higher, and the segment will exceed investors’ expectations in 2022.

The new MacBook Air, 13-inch MacBook Pro, and Mac mini are now powered by M1, Apple’s revolutionary chip.
The new MacBook Air, 13-inch MacBook Pro, and Mac mini are now powered by M1, Apple’s revolutionary chip.

The reason for their optimism: a combination of work and learn from anywhere, the lesson learned due to the response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and a multi-year refresh cycle around the staged rollout of Apple Silicon across the Mac family.

Dan Howley for Yahoo Finance:

Mac accounts for about 12% of Apple’s overall revenue and was essentially flat in the five years prior to the pandemic, up on average 1% annually.

MacDailyNews Take: Not the Mac’s fault. That was Apple management’s fault for ignoring it, saddling it with bad designs (Mac Pro trash can), and bad keyboards, among other issues.

Over the past three quarters, that trend has been reversed, and Mac growth has stepped up to the mid 20% range.

MacDailyNews Take: Yes, it seems that finally waking up and paying attention to the horse that brung ya pays dividends.

While the segment’s growth rate will decline from those highs due to rising comps, we believe the Mac will be a source of upside for the company in 2022 given our expectation of Mac growth of 5% in FY22 compared to the Street looking for 2%. For FY23 we expect 5% Mac growth compared to the Street at down 4%. The reason for our optimism: a combination of work and learn from anywhere and a multi-year refresh cycle around the staged rollout of Apple’s new M1 chip across the Mac family.

MacDailyNews Take: One slight note, it will be Apple Silicon across the Mac family, not just M1 varients. The M1 is just a starting point.

Looking forward, our FY21 Mac revenue growth estimate of 7% is in line with consensus. Beyond this year, we are more optimistic compared to consensus estimates and believe the Mac can grow 5% in both FY22 and FY23, compared to the Street at 2% and -4%, respectively…

Even with vaccinations and a return to greater normalcy in 2021 and beyond, we believe, long-term, 25% plus of knowledge workers will continue to work either part- or full-time remote, up from around 6% pre-pandemic. This is a revision upward from our fall 2020 estimate that 20% would be full or part-time remote. This shift is driven by greater employer comfort with remote work as productivity has remained acceptable over the past year, in part from a surge in remote workflow tools, along with video conferencing now viewed as a good alternative to many in-person meetings.

One impact of this sustained step-up in remote work is more tech outfitting for home offices. The additional ~10m full and part-time remote workers will need reliable computing hardware. While Apple products like the Mac cost on average 20% more than a comparable PC, the cost difference is justified given Macs are more reliable, require less hardware support, and tend to be more resistant to malware which can be a productivity drain. Today, the Mac has about 8% share (source: IDC) of the global desktop computing market, a figure that has been essentially flat for the past 15 years. We believe that will slowly change and expect Mac market share to inch higher in the years to come driven by the digital transformation, along with a time-tested trend: those who adopt Apple products typically remain lifelong customers…

On top of the accelerating digital transformation, the Mac tailwind will strengthen from a once-in-a-decade hardware refresh… On the company’s December quarter earnings call, Tim Cook said the M1 “gives us a new growth trajectory that we haven’t had in the past.” We agree and believe the Mac will continue to get a measurable boost over the next 2-3 years from its refreshed lineup, as it offers material speed and performance improvements over the previous Intel-based Macs.

MacDailyNews Take: No matter what, by now it should be clear: The Mac is indomitable.

(And Intel sucks.)

8 Comments

  1. Certainly, in short, the Mac is BACK!

    M1 is a paradigm game changer and expect Apple to increase in market share with superior performance in award winning industrial design…

    1. Good thing that somebody finally woke up to the reality that Apple was not a phone/iPad or IOS company, and finally got serious about Mac line of products, essentially saving the company.
      Job well done.

      1. Amen, brother.

        Cook is slow on many things, but it is good to see he sometimes listens to customers and reverses course the Gold Standard example is the MacPro Tower and the ButterFried keyboard, Jony Ive’s swan songs.

        Still, more work needs to be done such as incorporating doubling ports in Pro laptops and others, removable batteries, less soldered boards and more expandability in computers extending the life of hardware.

        We shall see…

  2. One area they didn’t cover, but is related to the remote working, is the fact that companies have changed to more Cloud based networks. When employee’s can work remotely and their company networks now support a wider range of computers or devices, employee’s will be allowed a “choice”.

    If employee’s are allowed a choice of what computer they can use instead of only being able to use a company issued PC running Windows OS, this will propel the Mac sales to height beyond their estimates. Look at companies like Jamf who’s software gives system administrators the ability to manage any devices running MacOS, iOS, iPadOS and tvOs on networks. Even Microsoft has their version of software to manage Apple devices on their networks. MS knows this and they will also drive the adoption to “user choice”.

    How many people do you know who have Mac’s and iOS devices at home for personal use but have been required, because of lazy, ignorant IT administrators, to us a PC running Windows? Those days are soon to be gone and what will that really mean to Apple’s growth.

    No, the PC war is not over by a long shot and its looking very much like MS knows it.

    1. Totally agree, moving to the cloud and adopting browser standards had immediately removed 98% of barriers to using a Mac. Troubleshooting problems on a PC is way more time consuming and frequent than on the Mac. At home users generally know and appreciate this, but struggle to pay the 20% premium.

  3. “How many people do you know who have Mac’s and iOS devices at home for personal use but have been required, because of lazy, ignorant IT administrators, to us a PC running Windows?”

    Generally speaking, you are correct. However, a paradigm shift has taken place since the introduction of iPhone as CEOs and company leaders have asked IT to support a wide range of Apple products.

    For example: at my international company, we are still working on cheap PCs, but everyone has iPhones and iPads supported by IT.

    As the M1 chip word gains ground, surely the numbers will increase…

  4. In other news, the trend towards working from home has left Apple’s new “spaceship” building mostly vacant. Rumors are circulating (pun intended) that the building will be re-imagined as the worlds largest indoor running and cycling track.

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