Can Apple’s market value get to $3 trillion this year?

Wedbush analyst, and noted Apple bull, Daniel Ives predicts that the Cupertino Colossus still has plenty of headroom. In a note to clients last week, Ives made this bold prediction: “We believe the path to Apple hitting $3 trillion in market cap is now firmly on track over the next year.”

Can Apple's market value get to $3 trillion this year? Apple Park in Cupertino, California
Apple Park in Cupertino, California

Danny Vena, Dan Caplinger, and Jason Hall for The Motley Fool:

In this video clip from Motley Fool Live, recorded on Jan. 28, “The Wrap” host Jason Hall and Fool.com contributors Danny Vena and Dan Caplinger discuss the catalysts that could drive Apple shares higher and whether the stock will reach this ambitious watermark over the coming year.

Jason Hall: Let’s do a little over, under action here… Danny Vena, are you taking the over or the under on Apple’s stock price being 26% higher in a year?

Danny Vena: we’re going to see a lot of iPhones purchased over the next couple of years. I think the more iPhones there are, the more services business is going to grow. You put those two things alone together, I think you get more than 26% upside over the coming 12 months. So I’m going to say over.

Dan Caplinger: I’m going under… In order for Apple to become a $3 trillion company, the value of its outstanding shares needs to go up by a total of 26%. One of the things that you said, “hey, that means the share price has to go up.” But actually, I think that share price is going to have to go out more than that and that’s because Apple’s buying backup boatload of shares to the tune of, I just looked it up, $80 billion last year.

Hall: So to add that much market cap guys, it’s got to add a Berkshire Hathaway-and-a-half… I’m going to take the under here. I’m going to take the under, it’s going to go up 25.5%.

MacDailyNews Take: Apple’s market value will hit $3 trillion by the end of 2022, barring unforeseen circumstances which, with 2020 as an example, are always a possibility. Of course, with that, we’re now covered if AAPL manages to do it in 2021. 😉

7 Comments

  1. With the current potato in the White House who is enacting Obama 2.0 and doubling down on policies and EO’s that had the economy just bumping along during Obama 1.0 with results that never measured up and always surprised and perplexed the so called experts. It will be a tough row for Apple to hoe!

  2. That will depend on big investors having confidence in Tim Cook. Honestly, big investors will likely load up on Tesla because of Elon Musk. Everything he touches turns into gold. It’s also obvious Wall Street is totally hung up on EVs because supposedly that’s where the big money will be. Tesla has a P/E of 1300 and doesn’t make much in terms of revenue or profits. Meanwhile Apple has practically everything going for it in terms of revenue, profits, dividends and massive stock buybacks, but can only manage a P/E of 38-42 and that’s with the constant cries of Apple being terribly overvalued.

    Big investors are likely bored with iPhones considering the glut of Android smartphones everywhere. Apple would have a much better chance of reaching a $3T market cap if they could purchase more video content in place of massive stock buybacks. Netflix is knocking it out of the ballpark with plenty of video content and high subscriber numbers. AppleTV+ is said to be “sputtering” along. Netflix is going to grab most of the Golden Globe awards while Apple will get nothing. Apple could certainly use more content to stream to all those active devices Apple has in the world. Apple could have plenty of subscribers signing up for AppleTV+ if they simply had more content. Apple can afford it, so why not?

    I think Apple should reach a $3T market cap this year because they’re actually not that far away. It will take a share price of $180 to put Apple just over the $3T mark if outstanding shares remain the same. That’s just $43 a share from Apple’s current share price. Apple SHOULD be able to gain $5 a month the end of the year, providing big investors think Apple is worth it. I’m just thinking Tesla will likely give big investors a $150 share price gain or more, so they might not want to waste their money on Apple. This stock market is weird and filled with gamblers and speculators all trying to grab for some gold ring. Apple may not excite big investors enough with mediocre gains.

    I’ll be sticking with Apple because it’s a solid and reliable stock to own. I want my Apple dividends and I’m not looking for huge share gains because I’m not selling my stock. For me, Apple is performing well, but there are so many other momentum stocks big investors can buy and have huge gains almost guaranteed.

  3. There’s always been a glut of android phones but Apple has always taken the lion’s share of the profits – as well as locking the users into the Apple ecosystem. I think Apple will continue to do well

  4. Apple will hit 300 dollars.

    if Apple builds a car they may as well build a car company, Apple clearly can afford to build from scratch auto manufacturing. if we continue if-ing, Apple could spend off a car company, and in that case stockholders could get shares in a new company. Naw. IPO? Naw.

    Would love to see Apple hit 700 dollars.

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