Loup Ventures’ Gene Munster and David Stokman estimate Apple will sell 217 million iPhones in fiscal 2021 (compared to 187m in FY20) and iPhone revenue will grow 15% y/y (compared to 1% in FY20).
Estimating iPhone demand throughout the year has stages, with each building on the previous. The first stage is the pre-orders, in which we track two factors: intent-to-buy, along with iPhone delivery lead times. This week, we found positive indications on both of these fronts.
Our iPhone intent-to-buy survey suggests greater interest in the latest iPhones, compared to a typical year. Additionally, we continue to see delivery lead times extend slightly, suggesting demand is outpacing production. Historically, this has been a positive signal for sales.
33% of respondents said their iPhone was more than 3 years old. Recently, we wrote about an iPhone tailwind: a larger upgrade pool, aka, the number of iPhones that are three years or older. We estimate the current upgrade pool is about 400m out of just under 1B total installed iPhones (~40%).
MacDailyNews Take: The demand is pent-up and this iPhone super cycle will be a multi-year affair, even beyond 2021, as hundreds of millions of users of older iPhones decide to upgrade to Apple’s latest and greatest!
Beloved and esteemed interns, TTK and get pouring! Prost, everyone! 🍻