Investors should brace themselves for the U.S. election

The stock market took a turn for the turbulent in the last week or so, perhaps from the effect of the unwinding of bullish options bets, which appeared to help inflate further the big technology stocks that have dominated the market’s rally. Randall W. Forsyth writes that “there are other, more fundamental factors to consider along with this technical one, however.”

Randall W. Forsyth for Barron’s:

Investors should brace themselves for the U.S. electionThere is the matter of the election. The RealClear Politics average of opinion polls has narrowed but shows former Vice President Joe Biden with a 7.5-percentage-point lead over President Donald Trump. RealClear Politics’ average of betting sites put the two candidates in a virtual dead heat at the end of August after the Republican National Convention, but Biden’s lead was about in line with the site’s average of polls late this past week.

Confidence in polls isn’t great after they predicted Hillary Clinton would win the White House four years ago.

For the stock market, the 10 close elections in the post-World War II era have seen selloffs in the six to seven weeks before the election, according to a research note from Deutsche Bank’s strategists led by Binky Chadra… Investors should brace themselves for Election Week or Weeks, rather than Election Day, according to a J.P. Morgan client conference call. No clear winner may emerge on the night of Nov. 3 or even early the next morning, given the extra time that may be needed to tally mail-in ballots.

The Deutsche Bank strategists, meanwhile, find close elections have been followed by strong rallies averaging 5%, regardless of which party wins, as hedges against political risk are closed out. Futures on the Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX—also known as the market’s fear gauge—show expectations of increased volatility through October and diminished postelection volatility through December. Given the likely rise in voting by mail and the controversy over it, they suggest the market may be too sanguine pricing in a normal voting outcome, so they advise protecting portfolios into December.

MacDailyNews Take: Yup. This happens every four years. The market hates uncertainty.

Apple’s share price will bop around here for awhile. AAPL longs are used to some turbulence from time to time. Buckle up and enjoy the ride (or, if you have a weak stomach, try to sleep through it)!MacDailyNews, September 9, 2020

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Fred Mertz” for the heads up.]

45 Comments

  1. Not that he wasn’t a lock to win before (ignore the bogus polls; The Silent Majority doesn’t participate well in public polls), but Trump is now doubly guaranteed to win re-election with unemployment falling to single digits.

    Any so-called “news “of a “close race” is only in the media to attract eyeballs and produce as much political ad spending as possible before the election.

    I am privy to internal polling from both sides of the aisle.

          1. Dear BOB, you need to quit getting all of your info from the main stream media. If you actually delved into the facts and real truth you might not act like such an ignorant asshole. Then again …

            1. Hey Bob you DO know people like you are the reason no one on the Right trust mail in ballots….No?

              Keep on hitting that refresh button, you pathetic vote-rigger.

          1. TowerTone vote you down, no those are other people that use their own ears and eyes to hear and see. Plus, as far as i know, you can only vote once. See you are a liar, bird of a feather you are, like trump you are. Or Russian, which is it?

            1. Ah yes, the blacks have the race card, and the leftist losers have the Russia card. You are as predictable as Joe Biden forgetting how to tie his shoes.

      1. The Democratic leaders of Congress kneel in the halls of Congress for about 9 minutes, for the death of a black man named George Floyd and other persons.

        I have never seen them kneel for a fallen Police Officer.

        I have never seen them kneel for a fallen Soldier.

        I NEVER SAW THEM KNEEL FOR THE SOLDIERS THAT HILLARY AND OBAMA LEFT TO DIE IN Benghazi!!

        I have never seen them kneel for the thousands of (black and white) babies aborted EVERY DAY.

        I have never seen them kneel for a murdered white man or woman.

        I have not seen them kneel for the thousands of black-on-black murder victims.

        I have not seen them kneel for the thousands of elderly people that died in nursing homes due to the Corona Virus.

        I have to ask: WHY are Democrats putting the life of George Floyd as more valuable than the lives of everyone else?

        In fact, Democrats have put so much value on the life of George Floyd, they have allowed rioting, looting, arson, murder, and mayhem in communities Nationwide… ASK YOURSELF – WHY NOW?”

        IF YOU HATE AMERICA, VOTE FOR THE DEMOCRATS.

        The family (brothers and sister) of George Floyd opened a Go Fund Me account to “help the family”? It has already raised $14,455,100.00 and still counting from donations as of June 22, 2020. Yes, almost $14 1/2 MILLION. This is for a guy who was arrested NINE times; was a convicted drug dealer (and at a drug deal the day he died); held a gun to the stomach of a pregnant lady while his five buddies robbed her home; did prison time three different times totaling about eight years, and obviously didn’t learn from our penal system.

        And America is memorializing him by painting murals of the guy on the sides of buildings like he’s a hero? Unbelievable!! You got to be kidding me.

        Crime does pay! …..and to pour salt in the wound, Pelosi presented his brother a folded American flag flown over the Capitol in his honor in a beautiful tri-cornered presentation case.

        Democrats are lying, treasonous pieces of shit and only a fucking idiot would vote for them

        1. I haven’t seen Trump kneel for anything but his reelection and wealth accumulation. In fact he holds the military dead in contempt. If you want America to go straight into the toilet vote Trumpism. There are decent Republicans out there – you just aren’t one of them. You side with sheer un-American evil. This isn’t about politics. Stop playing the part of a disingenuous raving loon.

        2. Hal, you true piece of horse sh-t. The other horse, cow and sheep sh-t like you always have some more horse sh-t, cow sh-t, and sheep sh-t coming out of your mouths.

          What about white on white crime? Would you like to discuss that? That white 17 year old that killed two white people and shot the other another white person.

          Or how about that white president that lied to a bunch of white people and others, and those people are dying and dead by his actions.

          Or how about that white president that let all those white troops and others overseas be targeted and killed by those people over there, paid by a white guy, putin, to kill Americans.

          Or how about that white president who tells his dumb ass supporters to go and cause harm to their fellow citizens all so he can stay his rich white ass out of jail.

          Or how about that white president that broke America’s word to men and women of Kurdish heritage, that fought on America’s behalf, to die at the hands of America’s enemies.

          Or how about that white president that is such a traitor he sent his son-in-law to the russian embassy looking for a back channel so he could tell America’s secrets to the russians.

          Or what about that white president that rape a women and demands you pay for his defense. If he did not do it, all he has to is take a DNA TEST.

          Or what about those cops that are killing people that are unarmed. Hey why aren’t there a bunch of white people dying like that.

          Why are all these white mass murders taken alive.

          Or how about, even now, that white president after admitting the virus is worse than the flu and is airborne, knowing that a mask could keep you living, still holds a rally where he has crowds with no or little mask use. That asshole does not give a damn about you, hey and neither do I. Let’s all die together. Launch the NUKES, let’s get this party started right.

          Or how about taking a look at a republican senate that didn’t call for any witnesses to be called against a lying, cheating, traitor. Hell they did not have a trial. Rich white man’s justice. Translation for your poor ass, white guy gets off again.

          Or now how mitch wanting to tell people to wear a mask after hearing what that lying piece of sh-t said about the virus being more deadly than the flu and airborne.

          You want to talk about Black on Black crime please cut the horse sh-t.

          Your rage, well it’s just another lie. Too bad you don’t give sh-t.

      2. Imagine you don’t have a significant position in APPL or some other tech stock, then answer honestly,

        “Am I better off today than I was four years ago?”

        That will dictate your vote, since the buck stops on the President’s desk.

        1. Trump has yet to accept any “buck” that stops at his desk, including the pandemic. He is an inept, incompetent fool at attested to by his sister, niece and literally everyone who has worked for him or gone to prison for him. Open your eyes and ears and see his own words indict himself EVERY DAY.

          Also presidents doin’t get credit for the economy. Things were good under Bill Clinton too and I don’t give him any credit either, The current bad economy you CAN blame on Trump because of his basic idiocy in dealing with it. If he had come out with an immediate plan of stringent quarantine and social distancing and we had this pandemic under control by now he’d look a hero and his reelection would be a shoe-in. But as usual Trump shoot himself in the foot on a regular basis. Check out the verifiable things he said to Bob Woodward. The death toll is now close to 200,000 – how is that acceptable for the highest office in the land?

          If you still follow him after that you’re essentially a bigger imbecile than he is.

          1. Hey Festus,

            “Trump has yet to accept any “buck” that stops at his desk bla bla bla…”

            How about something specific?

            Oh you won’t because it would be sooo easy to make you look like an even bigger fool than you already present yourself to be.

        2. America is gripped by riots. America has record unemployment. America is split into two political groups tHat hate each other. America has record deaths in a pandemic that the government ignores.
          And somehow the democrats, the people NOT in power, are being blamed for it. Around 40% of Americans have drank some sort of kool-aid because this stupidity is beyond comprehension. And no, Bob is not refreshing and up ticking himself. People like me uptick him and downtick People like Towertone who is not. Russian plant unlike Hal and a bunch of ‘new names’.
          Wake up America and go back to being normal and regain respect in the global community vs the laughing stock you are now. And to the Normal 60%, I feel your pain but just wait. In two more months, this nightmare will be over and someone, and his crooked family, will be Extracted from the very deep and widened swamp, and will be headed For jail.

          1. “And somehow the democrats, the people NOT in power, are being blamed for it.”

            If you understood America is a Republic then you would also understand that the Democrats ARE in charge of the areas having these issues.

            As far as laughing stock, how far do you want to take that?
            I’ll be glad to challenge you, but you won’t like the reality of it.

  2. I love that Bob an others game voting here. Notice for the direct jabs there are like 30-40 votes the ones he doesn’t care about 5. It’s not just obvious, it’s such a delicious indication of how pathetic his ego is. Waving a flag of “im a giant loser, I’ll prove it with 30 more fake vote clicks” Bwhaahahaaa. The great thing is they believe in the polls which are even less accurate. Delicious.

    Keep clicking Bob. Youre winning! Youre totally winning! bwawahahaa

    1. ok, here is probably the same liar, with just a name change. Those that think you can vote more than ONCE give it a try. note the number of votes before you do, the thing trump would have you do, vote more than once. Let Zombie know he is a liar as well.

      HEY ZOMBIE I MEAN TowerTone, go ahead get all the anger out. Go through those stages you need to so you can’t dump trump. Well, unless you are Russian, and even in that case Siberia is warming up… that is if you want to quit doing what putin says. Of course, he may poison you. Look keep your day job, I’ll be here to keep telling the truth. See all people have to do is listen to trump’s words, not the media as you like to call it, but trump’s actual out of trump’s mouth words.

      I’ll ask this again, trump said it why don’t you believe it? How is it the “medias” fault? How is it some “media” trick? Can’t you see? Can’t you hear? Why are you picking and choosing to believe one thing out his mouth and not the other? Well yeah, he lies all the time, but what about you? You lie this much? You been married a few times too…. hahahahaha

      a life note :

      Just remember while you’re out lying and cheating, your partner is at home doing the same thing, or could be, thinking it’s nice not to have to go out to do whatever. Have a cell do you? Called home to say you will be out for a couple of hours. Well, it could be the perfect time for your partner in life to have a friend visit… hey don’t be like donald.

      1. Dance puppet dance. Keep that tor web browser running and vote some more!. Keep clicking puppet. I enjoy pulling your strings. Keep clicking you abject jackass. You’re winning! You’re winning. Bwahahhaa what a loser!

      2. “ok, here is probably the same liar, with just a name change. Those that think you can vote more than ONCE give it a try.”

        Hey dumb ass, it’s easy if you have a functioning brain. See if you can figure it out.

  3. Much smarter Republicans (than the Koolaid drinking, conservative, inbred hillbilly and dimwit banjo-playing types here without a valid argument and like monkey-see monkey-do only echo Trump’s misleading and lying tropes) have figured it out.

    I don’t consider any of you Cult of Trumpers (because the Republican Party of yore no longer exists) true Americans not being able to see the big picture. It ain’t about politics this time boys. You’re playing with fire at everyone else’s expense. Only the most blind and myopic can’t see it now.

    1. Hey Festus,

      “(because the Republican Party of yore no longer exists)”

      I’m guessing that you’re about 25 years old and living in your mother’s basement. Tell me I’m wrong.

    1. Please record you screams of pain when Tump wins and send it to me to use for a ring tone. I love libturd cries!!!

      Thanks for nominating a corrupt racist detention patient you fucking idiot.

  4. MDN….” Yup. This happens every four years. The market hates uncertainty.”

    How can there be “uncertainty” when both parties are owned by the same group of billionaires who control this country?

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