According to JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategist Marko Kolanovic, investors should position for the rising odds of President Donald Trump winning re-election.
Betting odds that earlier had Trump well behind challenger Joe Biden are now nearly even — largely due to the impact on public opinion of violence around protests, as well as potential bias in polls, said strategist Marko Kolanovic.
Based on past research, there could be a shift of five to 10 points in polls from Democrats to Republicans if the perception of protests turns from peaceful to violent, he said. People giving inaccurate answers could artificially skew polls in favor of Biden by 5%-6%, he added.
“Certainly a lot can happen in the next ~60 days to change the odds, but we currently believe that momentum in favor of Trump will continue, while most investors are still positioned for a Biden win,” Kolanovic wrote Monday. “Implications could be significant for the performance of factors, sectors, COVID-19 winners/losers, as well as ESG [Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance].”
Kolanovic, who has been accurate on calls including the stock rally after Trump’s election and the rebound from Covid-19-fueled lows earlier this year, said important drivers of the election in coming weeks include developments on the COVID-19 pandemic, which looks like it might subside as the vote nears.
Back in June JPMorgan suggested a Biden victory would lead to a weaker dollar. The tail risk of a large swing to progressive policies could lead to U.S. asset underperformance that would be dollar-negative, particularly against reserve currencies, strategists at the firm said.
MacDailyNews Take: Apple is well-positioned and likely to do well regardless of the outcome of the U.S. presidential election.
Someday, we hope the deification/vilification of the U.S. presidency will end.
The U.S. president is but a person; flawed, as is everyone, and merely the head of one of three co-equal branches of government (i.e. not a king; on purpose). You’d think the last 244 years of presidents would have taught us that they aren’t gods/devils, at least.
The U.S. presidency calls out for an unassuming person who can reset and ratchet down the misplaced adulation/condemnation. Sadly, the way we elect presidents today – 30-second TV commercials, YouTube videos, armies of spinners infesting the
news infotainment media, and ludicrous “debates” that aren’t even debates at all — an unassuming person is the very last person who’d ever bother to run, much less get elected to that thankless office.
For the several decades, at least, the people who want that job are, frankly, damaged in some way or multiple ways. For many years now, with several examples, narcissism seems to be the prevailing qualification for obtaining the office. Seriously, no sane person would want that job (or be willing to do what’s required to get it).
Don’t complain that the U.S. keeps electing narcissistic egomaniacs when virtually all of the requirements for getting elected to that job requires the candidate be a narcissistic egomaniac. If you want a competent unassuming president, stop electing presidents via TV commercials, YouTube videos, media spin doctors and a handful of televised pretend “debates.” (It’ll never happen. There’s too much money in the every 4th year presidential ad cycle.) – MacDailyNews, July 6, 2020
“No man who ever held the office of president would congratulate a friend on obtaining it.” ― John Adams