JPMorgan: Investors should prepare for rising odds of President Trump’s re-election

According to JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategist Marko Kolanovic, investors should position for the rising odds of President Donald Trump winning re-election.

Apple CEO Tim Cook (left) confers with U.S. President Donald Trump in September 2019
Apple CEO Tim Cook (left) confers with U.S. President Donald Trump in September 2019

Joanna Ossinger for Bloomberg News:

Betting odds that earlier had Trump well behind challenger Joe Biden are now nearly even — largely due to the impact on public opinion of violence around protests, as well as potential bias in polls, said strategist Marko Kolanovic.

Joe Biden
Joe Biden
Based on past research, there could be a shift of five to 10 points in polls from Democrats to Republicans if the perception of protests turns from peaceful to violent, he said. People giving inaccurate answers could artificially skew polls in favor of Biden by 5%-6%, he added.

“Certainly a lot can happen in the next ~60 days to change the odds, but we currently believe that momentum in favor of Trump will continue, while most investors are still positioned for a Biden win,” Kolanovic wrote Monday. “Implications could be significant for the performance of factors, sectors, COVID-19 winners/losers, as well as ESG [Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance].”

Kolanovic, who has been accurate on calls including the stock rally after Trump’s election and the rebound from Covid-19-fueled lows earlier this year, said important drivers of the election in coming weeks include developments on the COVID-19 pandemic, which looks like it might subside as the vote nears.

Back in June JPMorgan suggested a Biden victory would lead to a weaker dollar. The tail risk of a large swing to progressive policies could lead to U.S. asset underperformance that would be dollar-negative, particularly against reserve currencies, strategists at the firm said.

MacDailyNews Take: Apple is well-positioned and likely to do well regardless of the outcome of the U.S. presidential election.

Someday, we hope the deification/vilification of the U.S. presidency will end.

The U.S. president is but a person; flawed, as is everyone, and merely the head of one of three co-equal branches of government (i.e. not a king; on purpose). You’d think the last 244 years of presidents would have taught us that they aren’t gods/devils, at least.

The U.S. presidency calls out for an unassuming person who can reset and ratchet down the misplaced adulation/condemnation. Sadly, the way we elect presidents today – 30-second TV commercials, YouTube videos, armies of spinners infesting the news infotainment media, and ludicrous “debates” that aren’t even debates at all — an unassuming person is the very last person who’d ever bother to run, much less get elected to that thankless office.

For the several decades, at least, the people who want that job are, frankly, damaged in some way or multiple ways. For many years now, with several examples, narcissism seems to be the prevailing qualification for obtaining the office. Seriously, no sane person would want that job (or be willing to do what’s required to get it).

Don’t complain that the U.S. keeps electing narcissistic egomaniacs when virtually all of the requirements for getting elected to that job requires the candidate be a narcissistic egomaniac. If you want a competent unassuming president, stop electing presidents via TV commercials, YouTube videos, media spin doctors and a handful of televised pretend “debates.” (It’ll never happen. There’s too much money in the every 4th year presidential ad cycle.)MacDailyNews, July 6, 2020

“No man who ever held the office of president would congratulate a friend on obtaining it.” ― John Adams


  1. JPMorgan sees the writing on the wall.

    Poor Rapey Joe. Well past his prime and a puppet of leftist commies who hate the country and want nothing more than to lead it into ruin.

      1. Republican standard M.O. is to accuse Democrats of the misdeeds actually they themselves are committing. And hoping that if you say a lie often enough it’s accepted as truth. Hmm, I seem to remember another regime in history that tried that and ultimately failed. Trump is following the standard dictator’s handbook. Authoritarian rule anyone?

    1. I am not an American, only an interested observer from another country.

      All I know is Trump is destroying your good “American” brand worldwide. I do not know a single person among my relatives, friends and work colleagues who is interested in visiting the USA and time soon. This sentiment did not exist in the decades before Trump took over the GOP.

      As odd as it may sound, the rest of the world looks back longingly for the “happy” times under Dubya 😉

      Today the mismanagement of the COVID pandemic has given you your wall without having to physically build it. And you are banned from travel in all but a handful of countries.

      I feel sorry for you. You can’t see the fascism growing right out in the open across your country. I fear the divisive nature of your president and his supporters is a cancer that may be too advanced to cure.

      Donald J. Trump is a conman in every sense of the word. His lackeys and shills have managed to convince the weak minded to blindly follow. They will say anything and do anything to hold to power.

      If you don’t see through his grifter cult persona, congratulations you are the “mark”.

        1. I’ll say just about anything to get my hair done, EXCEPT that it’s safe to go to the polls.
          Getting my hair done (while everyone else is needs to stay home) is safer than voting. In addition, I’m in Congress.

          1. The Soeaker called her hairdresser and asked if she could lawfully have her hair done. The hairdresser (who just rents her chair) asked the shop owner, who did not raise any objections. The shop owner, who admits all the above, then posted the security video from the shop and released a statement that she was outraged by the situation she helped create. Sounds like the Trump outrage at the results of the virus and civil unrest crises that he helped create.

            1. You are supporting a Senator that’s claiming ignorance of the laws in the district in which she presides? It’s the same person that’s vigorously increased lawmaker’s mask restrictions/requirements and has spoken correctively to the nation about wearing the mask. She then bucks the law and blames it (being discovered) on someone else…and having been “set-up,” nonetheless. You’re voicing support for such hypocrisy because of that thing on your shoulder? Are you ok?

              “Pelosi’s staff insisted Pelosi wore a mask while getting her hair done except for a brief period when she got her hair washed.” CNN (Whoopsie…those videos made me lie.)

              “We’re supposed to look up to this woman, right?” eSalon owner Erica Kious told Fox News in an interview Tuesday. “It is just disturbing.”

              Kious described Pelosi’s visit as “a slap in the face that she went in, you know, that she feels that she can just go and get her stuff done while no one else can go in, and I can’t work.” CNN

              The new restrictions in San Francisco say hair salons can operate outdoors, though certain procedures, such as shampooing, color and chemical treatments are still prohibited. CNN

              Using Trump in this from-out-of-left-field manner is so tit-for-tat-juvenile and weak IF you are interested in making a point with worthy logic. When one exists, just argue the point at hand. You practiced law for how many years and used such tenuous associations in pursuit of a credible point? Incredible.

              Harkening back a few months, but it’s now perfectly applicable….I’d say Nancy’s actions are lawlessness of the Somolia-kind, with a dose of deviousness…wouldn’t you?

            2. Again, Ronner, the “outraged” Ms. Kious is the person who (1) told Rep. Pelosi’s hairdresser that this was OK and then (2) released the video of the visit that she had first facilitated and later decried as intolerable. Rep. Pelosi does not “preside” over the City of San Francisco and has no more reason to familiarize herself with the city’s regulations than any other resident. Like other residents, she relies on businesses to follow the law and to give correct advice to their customers about what the rapidly-changing rules require.

              This is a less-lethal equivalent of an officer asking a motorist for his license and registration and then shooting him when he reaches into the glovebox.

              Just out of curiosity, how do you think that a woman can wash her hair when it is partially covered by a mask? Do you think it is hypocrisy for someone who supports masks and social distancing to remove his mask to eat in a restaurant that is following every public health guideline? Speaker Pelosi thought her hairdresser was following the rules, as did her hairdresser, because the “outraged” Ms, Kious deliberately misinformed them.

            3. Totally false! You and your ilk are the ones creating a setup and its not Pelosi.

              Pelosi chose to get a haircut. Pelosi chose the shop. Pelosi’s aide made the appointment at the direction of Pelosi. Pelosi chose to follow through and come to the shop. Pelosi chose to BREAK THE LAW not wearing a mask. NO ONE on planet Earth put a gun to Pelosi’s head and made her not wear a mask. All the BLAME rests entirely on Pelosi’s shoulders, PERIOD!

              So what the shop owner knew she was coming, it’s called professional business courtesy to inform the owner regarding an international powerful person in power to plan accordingly and maintain security. The cameras were installed five years prior in the shop and they film EVERYONE.

              Bottom Line: Pelosi is not a victim and was not setup. She does not take responsibility for her actions and does not admit her culpability and say she is sorry to the citizens of San Francisco for not obeying the laws she expects the rest of the world to live by, but they don’t apply to me — only to thee. Classic move by the powerful privileged class when caught blame everyone and everything, but themselves.

              Every fair minded person sees through the Pelosi excuses and deflections. The best was Don Lemmon calling out Pelosi on his CNN show and asking her to apologize for her epic mistake instead of acting like a victim. It’s so obvious to everyone, with the exception of Pelosi and TxUser two of a kind self righteous liars…

    2. Voting for Biden because you don’t like Trump is like easting dog shit became you don’t like broccoli.

      America is not divided by race color, gender or sexual orientation.
      America is divided by wise people and idiots.
      And idiots divide themselves by race color, gender and sexual orientation. Democrats are millions of times more racist than Republicans.

      Who owned slaves? Southern Democrats.
      Who fought to end slavery? Republicans.
      Who freed the slaves? A Republican.

      Who created gun control to keep blacks from owning guns? Democrats.

      Democrats created and fuel Antifa. ANTIFA Profile:

      Violent, unstable personal background
      Clear pattern of sociopathic activity
      Hard left (Communist) political ethos
      Unkempt physical appearance, featuring filthy black clothing, skin piercings, tattoos, foul odor.
      Perpetually non-productive, non-contributing. They don’t work. They parasitically subsist on government “welfare” and thievery.
      Extensive arrest/incarceration record. Hordes of these ANTIFA clones, manufactured by our leftist public “education/indoctrination” system, are “in-action” in all major US metro areas, Western Europe, and the UK. They’re bussed-around by sleazy, leftist politicians who use them to terrorize political opponents.

      They enthusiastically share a vile hatred of “everything West,” and a nihilistic goal of destroying all trappings of Western Civilization, history religion, economy, infrastructure.

      Being absolutely amoral (like the leftist politicians who support them), they are extremely dangerous and have no compunction about committing vandalism, theft, mayhem, murder!

      This is just one of hundreds of ways that Democrats are destroying this country. Nothing is beneath those pieces of shit. Only an idiot would vote for democrats.

      Pelosi, AOC, Omar, Waters, Schumer, Wilson and soooo many others.
      These people are vile, despicable and pathetic will do anything and everything to destroy this country and try to blame Trump for it in order to win elections.

      Collusion was a lie and Democrats knew it.
      Impeachment was a farce and Democrats knew it.
      Testimony against Kavanaugh was all lies and Democrats knew it
      Nothing is beneath those pieces of shit. Only an idiot would vote for democrats.

      EVERY voting anomaly favors Democrats. Coincidence? They lie, cheat and steal. They are frauds. Nothing is beneath those pieces of shit. Only an idiot would vote for democrats.

      Every major city is a cesspool and they are all run by Democrats. Democrats are letting their cities burn and business are allowed to be destroyed. There are no arrests and criminals are being let out of prison, they then persecute cops and prosecute honest Americans trying to protect their families. The openly support violent criminals and hate honest Americans. They are despicable pieces of shit. Only an idiot would vote for democrats.

      Democrats did everything they could to slow and stop aid to Americans during Covid. They continue to do so to destroy the economy so they can blame Trump to try to stop his unstoppable re-election. They don’t care how many Americans they hurt to do it. They are despicable pieces of shit. Only an idiot would vote for democrats.

      Democrats support illegal immigrants because thinking Americans don’t vote Democrat anymore. They steal money from the mouths of Americans to give to illegals.
      After 3.5 years and 40 contenders, Democrats picked a corrupt, racist, dementia patient????? Biden can’t form a single coherent sentence. Only an idiot would vote for him.

      Dems lie when they call Trump a racist, but they support Dementia Joe, who is a proven racist. Here’s just one proof, there are many more:
      How stupid can you people be?

      American are disgusted by the left’s lies, stupidity, threats and violence. Democrats are despicable pieces of shit. Only an idiot would vote for them.

      1. Christ, will you please stop copying and pasting this tripe? You’ve been corrected on your gross mischaracterization of history at least once. Regurgitated falsehoods do nothing to advance the respectful discussion we Americans so desperately need right now.

          1. Based on the downvotes half the readers don’t want violent and treasonous Demonrats punished. Thats why you are libturds and stupid enough to guarantee Trumps reelection by nominating a corrupt, racist dementia patient. Thanks for your stupidity!!!!!

  2. I’m not going to even attempt to pick a winner of the presidential race. I will say with certainty, mail in ballots will mysteriously appear at the last moment to question close races within battleground states, leaving the nation without a clear choice and continuing the doubt of validity of the election. In other words, “Here we go again, folks”!

      1. Is this clearer now? I know it’s hard to expect any cognitive clarity from a Trump supporter. Republicans are getting busted now for editing Biden videos like yours to suit their dishonest narrative. You can’t beat those Lincoln Project videos put out by Republicans against Trump honestly. Speaks volumes for you and many other Republicans serious lack of character.

        1. The video I linked to above is unedited Dementia Joe. (And you all know it.)

          P.S. I’ll just leave this here:

  3. Trump WANTS the protests. He has egged them on and trolled them every chance he gets. He refuses to acknowledge what the protests are about, and celebrates people who express violence against the peaceful ones. Condemning the criminals is fine, but Trump won’t even do that for killers with a badge, or shooters with maga hats.

    1. You Lie.

      I also want to provide an update on left-wing political violence that we’re seeing in Democrat-run cities. Under my administration, federal law enforcement is working with state and local authorities all over the country to comb through hours of video, track down rioters, looters, and arsonists, and bring them to justice. We’ve just come up with a report that we’ve arrested a large number of people. It’s over 200. And you’ll be hearing about that, but they’ve been arrested in various cities throughout the United States. We’re doing it very low key, but we’re trying to help cities. They are, in all cases, Democrat-run, but we’re doing the best we can to help them without really much of a consent.

      We’d like to have the consent, as an example, in Portland. We could solve that problem in approximately one hour, but the mayor refuses, perhaps for political reasons. I don’t know why it’s good for him to have a city that’s falling apart and that’s under siege now for 94 days. But, really, it’s been under siege for years, if you know Portland.

      So, to the mayor, I say: Whenever you’re ready, let us know. We’ll solve your problem of violence. We’ll solve your problem of crime. We’ll arrest those criminals very rapidly, and you’ll be able to have some nice evenings in Portland.President Trump, August 31, 2020

      Liars lose. Just like Hillary.

      1. Tau Myx said that President Trump is aggravating the conflict by refusing to acknowledge that racial bias and excessive force in policing are real problems, by demonizing all of those protesting said bias and excessive force, and by lionizing those who use force against the protesters.

        First accused him of lying and then listed a bunch of Trump quotes that do not refute, but actually confirm, what Tau Myx said.

        None so blind as those who will not see.

        1. Are you stupid because you believe the Washington Post or do you believe the Washington Post because you are stupid?

          Or, if Biden would ask, are you green because pancakes are boxes?

      1. Here we go again, First Troll and his alter ego the Nonexistent Black Trump Supporter.

        All tou need to know is how many blatant lies he’s told. That disqualifies Donald from any elected office, period. The lack of peace and prosperity is just more obvious stuff that the troll farm wants voters to ignore. First is obviously a paid troll

  4. I don’t understand why the voters are not flocking to the Democrat platform of burning cities to the ground, inciting racial hatred, championing the killing of police men and women, killing babies, promoting energy that is only available during sunny daytime hours and when the wind is blowing, concerting “education” into Orwellian brainwashing and slogan chanting, and of course trashing every bit of our history, traditions and our Constitution. It such a positive action plan. And Joe is such a brilliant, honest and virtuous man.

  5. I am a Republican but this year I had a chance to register as a Democrat to insure I get a chance to vote and when I do vote it will be for Trump. If asked I say I’ll vote for Biden. I even texted to Joe 30330.

  6. Trump, MDN, and First then are as bad as the Democrats they demonize. Why? Cause MDN blocks me when they don’t agree. I dare them to post this. Wimpy stupid repugnants. You ass clown boy Trump is going down hard. Watch and see you ignorant morons.

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