Analyst: History says to buy Apple stock before new iPhones launch

For quite some time now, Apple investors and iPhone users (current and future) have been anticipating the arrival of the first 5G iPhones. Now they’re almost here. Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani reminds his clients that history says to buy Apple stock before new iPhones launch.

Image: iPhone 12 render (image via
iPhone 12 render (image via

Eric J. Savitz for Barron’s:

“With the iPhone launch expected in around three months, we think it is instructive to review Apple’s relative price performance in the periods before and after an iPhone launch,” Daryanani writes. “In past launches, the greatest average outperformance has come during the 180 day period leading to the launch. The 90 day period prior to the launch has also generated solid outperformance with lower volatility than the 180 day period. The 30- and 90-day periods following a launch have underperformed on average, although the dispersion of results here is far wider than in the periods prior to the launch.”

The analyst notes that relative performance seems at least partially tied to the strength of the cycle, “with the iPhone 6, X and 11 outperforming across most time periods.”

His core conclusion is that Apple stock has historically been a good investment prior to iPhone launches, and Evercore sees no reason for that to change now.

MacDailyNews Take: History says to buy Apple stock. Period.


  1. Basically, any time is a good time to buy Apple stock because eventually it definitely will be going up in value. I believe Apple Silicon Macs will have more impact on Apple’s share price than the iPhone. Apple Silicon Macs will offer things to consumers that will be quite unusual in terms of laptops thanks to all the various functions SoCs will be able to deliver and what Intel processors can’t. If Apple prices Apple Silicon Macs competitively, Apple will make a killing in the educational market, especially if the pandemic continues to force remote learning. So, more than buy before the iPhone launch, buy Apple before the Apple Silicon Mac launch.

    1. Agreed. AAPL’s EGG trajectories (+-BUN) remain vertical going into FQ3, which suggests only medium pullback on PLUM over the next 4 to 6 months, with SAMN consistently positive.

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