Analyst: Chinese iPhone sales dip just a temporary issue

Just ahead of the Lunar New Year festival, the Chinese government curbed travel in late January affecting iPhone sales in the country. Those restrictions stayed largely in place through most of the month of February. In addition, Apple’s branded stores in China were shut for at least two weeks in February as fears over the coronavirus outbreak mounted.

In February, Apple’s sales of iPhone amounted to fewer than 500,000 units in China, according to Chinese government data released on Monday, as the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak halved demand in the smartphone market as a whole.

Chinese iPhone sales. Image: COVID-19Malcolm Owen for AppleInsider:

Apple’s sales of iPhones are considerably down in China for the last quarter, according to Daniel Ives from Wedbush, but Apple’s ability to bring the supply chain back to normal is of bigger importance to investors.

“While this is a very nervous time for consumers, companies, investors, etc., we caution that Chinese demand in the March quarter is not the trend, but a ‘shock event’ that we believe will be shortlived as normalized iPhone demand trends start to take hold in 2H in China and across the globe,” Ives writes. “Cook and Apple when taking March guidance off the table last month foreshadowed these types of numbers and speaks to the near-term damage done in China over the last six weeks due to the coronavirus and its impact on consumer demand across the board,” Ives continued. “Now all eyes of the Street are around normalizing the supply chain by late April/early May and trying to better understand the demand trajectory in China over the coming quarters.”

ves doesn’t see any delay more than a few weeks for the 5G “iPhone 12” when compared to previous years’ launch windows, and a recovery of iPhone demand in China in the June and September quarters with only limited demand destruction… Given the core premise of a 5G “super cycle,” Ives is maintaining a $400 price target for Apple.

MacDailyNews Take: Again, with this news of Apple’s February iPhone sales in China, along with an obscene amount of coronavirus hysterics amplified by the media/social media echo chamber, get ready for AAPL’s discount sale, just ahead of the multi-year 5G iPhone super cycle, to deepen. Smart investors will take advantage.

MacDailyNews Note: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that, from October 1, 2019 – February 29, 2020, there have been:

• 34 million – 49 million cases of seasonal influenza
• 16 million – 23 million influenza medical visits
• 350,000 – 620,000 influenza hospitalizations
• 20,000 – 52,000 influenza deaths

That’s just in the U.S.

Worldwide COVID-19 stats as per Johns Hopkins CSSE:

• 111,354 cases of COVID-19
• 62,375 total recovered
• 3,892 COVID-19 deaths

2 Comments

  1. “an obscene amount of coronavirus hysterics amplified by the media/social media echo chamber”

    MDN really should quit getting its cues from MAGA-man. And comparing the stats from an emerging pandemic with those of established diseases does nothing more than reveal their total ignorance of epidemiology.

    Stick to your core subjects guys, or become irrelevant.

    1. You jump to a quick knee-jerk conclusion before spouting ignorance then leveling your empty threat.

      Perhaps MDN got their cues from Elon Musk:

      And/or from TIME:

      People with milder versions of the illness are underrepresented in official case counts, since they may not be sick enough to seek medical attention or realize they have anything more than a cold… That means the total number of reported cases is very likely an underestimate—and by not counting many mild or asymptomatic cases, we’re likely overestimating the disease’s overall mortality rate. President Donald Trump, for one, told Fox News he has a “hunch” that the actual mortality rate is likely below 1%.

      —— TIME, March 9, 2020

      And/or from NBC News:

      While some studies peg the death rate to 3.4%, experts expect to see this rate decrease as the health care system starts finding milder cases.

      “What I was able to find by looking at a few other data sources, rather than just the big flashy numbers, was that there’s actually a lot of reason to be reassured that the numbers are a lot lower,” said Dr. Jeremy Faust, an emergency medicine doctor at Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston.

      Because only the sickest people are showing up at hospitals, this group is likely over-represented among the full population of people who have COVID-19, according to Faust. Most COVID-19 cases are mild, and many individuals will never even see a health care provider to be tested.

      “If you had an outbreak on a cruise ship, and there’s any sign that care was delayed or that people who really should’ve been protected weren’t, then you actually have reason to say ‘Oh, actually, whatever we found on the cruise ship, it’s actually that’s the worst case scenario because they didn’t get treatment on time.’”

      Of the 705 passengers who tested positive for the virus on the Diamond Princess, six died — which is a death rate of less than 1%. All of the patients who died onboard were more than 70 years old.

      —— ABC News, “Early mortality rates for coronavirus are likely misleading, experts say,” March 9, 2020

      Do you have some vested interest in attempting to silence truth-tellers in order to further amp up what is already “an obscene amount of coronavirus hysterics?”

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