Apple, Apple and more Apple: I am not selling any more Apple shares

Apple Fifth Avenue
Apple Fifth Avenue

“I am not selling any more Apple based on my price targets. I will sell more Apple when the chart turns,” Stephen Guilfoyle writes for Real Money:

It was not so long ago that I wrote you and said that if [AAPL] shares somehow reached my target range (at the time) of $258-$269, that I would take some off (and I did). The shares have not traded below their own 50 day simple moving average for anything more than a couple of days since early June. The 50 day SMA stood at $194 at that time. These shares closed on Thursday night at $309.63. That’s almost 60% in half a year, for a (very) widely held multi-mega cap name…

I am cancelling my most recent price target of $310. Why? Because this is silly. I am not selling any more Apple based on my price targets. I will sell more Apple when the chart turns.

MacDailyNews Take: May the great awakening continue to spread far and wide!

Apple is not a normal company. Apple is rare. When they do something like stopping the reporting of unit sales, it’s not to hide something, it’s to illuminate something else… Apple is “damaged” only in the eyes of investors who cannot see the forest for the trees… Someday, Apple investors will look back on this period that Apple’s stock price is currently enduring and laugh while they count their money! — MacDailyNews, January 18, 2019, on which date AAPL closed at $154.50 (vs. today’s close of $310.33).

Interns, TTK! Prost, everyone! 🍻

14 Comments

  1. I might sell some Apple stock if I needed the money in an emergency, but otherwise, I’ll just hold onto it and collect the quarterly dividends. On second thought, I would likely sell some of my other dividend stocks first. Apple doesn’t seem like it’s in any danger of collapsing, so I might as well just keep holding it. A 20% dip in the share price wouldn’t faze me at all. In fact, I sort of expect that to happen when all the big investors start profit-taking after the massive run-up. That’s just the way Apple is but I bet it won’t happen to Microsoft. That stock will keep climbing non-stop because of all those loyal institutional investors who won’t be grabbing their money the first chance they get. Besides, Microsoft’s cloud business is said to be much more stable than Apple’s hardware business as far as Wall Street is concerned.

    1. ” That’s just the way Apple is but I bet it won’t happen to Microsoft. That stock will keep climbing non-stop because of all those loyal institutional investors who won’t be grabbing their money the first chance they get. Besides, Microsoft’s cloud business is said to be much more stable than Apple’s hardware business as far as Wall Street is concerned.”

      Are you daft? You know you can look up historical gains in stocks and Apple has far outperformed Microsoft and continues to do so.

  2. There’s going to be some significant profit taking at some point. The question is when?
    There’s quite a lot of bullishness in the market at the moment so it is hard to say when the dip will occur. I’m tempted to sell some stock prior to the earning call.

    1. Im not so sure this time. Supply of AAPL is shrinking as Apple continues to retire shares and the ownership is increasingly held by longs, who are not inclined to sell. Apple is filly getting the respect it deserves from the market. It wasn’t too long that they quit reporting unit numbers and started pushing the services narrative

      1. If Bernie sanders wins he wants to stop buybacks , so that’s it for retiring shares.

        And if Elizabeth Warren wins she wants to break up the tech companies.

        If Biden wins he wants to double taxation on capital gains

            1. Downvoters you can down vote all you want but my statements are just facts. That’s what the candidates said they would do.

              So
              “Are you saying they are lying or unable to get more sensible Democrats in the Senate etc to vote for the changes?”

              Which two options is it as there are only two unless you can suggest another one.

              Down vote all you want. Ain’t going to change the facts.

        1. If either one of those two, “grab & spread” folks win, we’re in for a debt burden beyond what exists now. If Joe wins, it’s hard to say what will happen because he’ll likely forget his statements.

  3. good point about the scarity of shares. Still Apple have retired only ~30% of shares so statistically that would not have a significant effect. Still with the market, perception is more important that reality.
    I would therefore argue that the combination of share demand, share availability PLUS overall market sentiment is what is continuing to drive APPL stock higher.
    It really doesn’t take much for market sentiment t drive the stock down again. To be honest, I am skeptical that the makers gives APPL the respect it deserves. Greed and FUD can easily drive the stock down again.

  4. Pretty good “discussion” this week giving reason to AAPL’s booming rise.

    Stock buybacks are a part of the discussion, but it’s not linked to a simple reduction in shares.
    Other factors are mentioned and explanations seem reasonable.

    Neil Cybart: Why Apple doubled (passive versus active investing)
    https://www.ped30.com/2020/01/10/apple-cybart-active-passive/

    Bernstein’s Toni Sacconaghi, disputes active vs passive rationale.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/10/sacconaghi-knocks-down-theory-apples-surge-due-to-passive-investing-buybacks.html

    Brian Belski “The mere fact that people are debating Apple right here [at $308] means that there is not euphoria in the market.”
    https://www.ped30.com/2020/01/09/apple-brian-belski-bmo/

    Stability.

  5. Buybacks are a scam, and only benefit Wall Street insider’s and Apple’s current management, which is why it’s poplar, governments, people and companies all have a problem with just saving money. Look most people in the eye and say just save your money and most will say I gotta spent it now….

Reader Feedback

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.