Apple’s Q2 iPhone shipments are a tough call

“Apple investors are bracing for what could be an unsightly earnings forecast,” Jon Swartz writes for Barron’s. “They have every right to be squeamish about the state of iPhone, which accounts for about 60% of Apple’s total revenue. Rumors are percolating that iPhone X is all but dead, and shipments of iPhone are lagging in the June quarter.”

MacDailyNews Take: Rumors.

“Apple reports second-quarter results on Tuesday — analysts expect earnings of $2.71 per share on revenue of $51.9 billion — but it is the third quarter that has their collective attention,” Swartz writes. “Katy Hubert, managing director of research at Morgan Stanley, last week reduced her iPhone shipment estimates in the June quarter from 40.5 million to 34 million. [Apple sold 41 million iPhones in the year-ago June quarter.]”

“The world’s most-valuable public company, at $833.3 billion, faces more than just iPhone headaches,” Swartz writes. “Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook met privately with President Trump last week. It’s a good bet they discussed at length escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China, where many of Apple’s devices are made. ”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: It’ll be very nice to have real numbers – facts as opposed to rumors – when Apple reports Q218 earnings data next week. As always, guidance will be a big key for short term share prices.

Apple to release Q218 earnings, webcast live conference call on May 1st – April 3, 2018


  1. The focus on iPhone unit sales is totally irrational. Its the REVENUE, Stupid.

    Nobody knows better than Apple management, and since Oppenheimer replaced Anderson as CEO, Apple has never failed to achieve its bottom of range revenue guidance.

    THAT’S NEVER IN 23 QUARTERS (almost 6 years).

    I’m inclined to believe the people that actually KNOW, vs the multitude that is just guessing (or repeating others’ mindless guesses).

  2. When Steve Jobs was around, as an aapl investor I never worried about earnings calls or analyst estimates.

    Jobs didn’t worry about investors, as he said ‘Manage the top line the bottom line would take care of itself’ i.e take care of the products and the creative people and the money would come. In his second tenure aapl growth was astonishing: Fortune : “a 100-fold return in about 15 years or about 35% compound annual growth rate” .

    Steve Jobs never bothered to even attend Quarterly Financial earnings calls. He was absolutely confident investors would be pleased and his time was better spent working on his current products.

    But we’ve got a very different CEO now who doesn’t laser focus on products. We’ve got a Mac built in 2013 being sold as ‘current’ in 2018 on their website, we’ve got crucial eco system components like AirPorts (it’s not just the Wifi , it’s the control of the network.. ) neglected and dropped and devices delayed or launched incomplete ( 32 GB MBP, HomePod… ). We’ve got a CEO who seemed so SURPRISED last year that Macs were so underpowered, desperately he had to sell EXTERNAL GPU boxes to developers to write Apple software… !
    (If not for EGPUs and the rush for the iMacPro Apple staff would be using WINDOWS or Linux machines in their brand new 5 billion campus… ).

    Because of not taking care of the top line the stock is moribund.

    Today I worry.
    The stock is still relatively ‘safe’ as the P.E is so low but I wish Cook would ‘focus’ ( I could say something more rude… but I want people at Apple to listen… ).


    “Companies, as they grow to become multibillion-dollar entities, somehow lose their vision. ….. They no longer have an inherent feel or a passion about the products.

    1. Bollocks
      When the bubble burst in 2000 Apple fell from over $4 to just over $1.
      Then the iMac was Apple’s savior. The market overreaction was huge to reduced sales. Some warranted but definitely not a 75% drop.
      There are plenty examples of the stock dropping like a stone in the second Jobs era.
      FWIW I bought apple stock in 2007 and it has risen over 2000% during that time. My 401k funds not so much. I haven’t sold my stock during those down times and of course it bounced back up. When I feel Apple is not performing I will sell but that is not yet as far as I’m concerned. The fact that apples pe is low reduces the risk that the stock is over blown.

      1. like i said i never worried about aapl
        I never said Apple was ALWAYS up under Job’s tenure…
        When it did fall I was Ok, I knew it was the market’s issue , the products were intact, i KNEW the stock would bounce back. I poured every spare cent i had into aapl after the 2007 crash as I knew the iPhone was a hit, even cashing out a life insurance savings policy.

        Made hundreds of thousands, still have over a million bucks in aapl although i cashed out a small amount at 176. first time i cashed out in 10 years.

        but if you believe Cook is performing like Jobs with the same passion and laser focus and there are no worrying issues with aapl…. up to you.
        (note maybe your stocks bounced back due to Jobs? note also 80 – 90% of apple’s profits today come Jobs products… )

        that said i hope i’m so wrong — and that Mac, SIRI ETC issues are off NO CONCERN to the stock — sure hope you are right.

  3. Regardless of how well iPhones sold this quarter, it’s a wake-up call. The iPod came into its own once it supported Windows. It’s devices such as the Apple Watch and Airpods would sell far better once anyone regardless of OS could enjoy one. That goes to all of its services as well. Microsoft has mitigated the end of Windows with it’s cloud services and it’s most recent earnings were spectacular even with Windows losing another 10% of its OEMs.
    Diversification is the key to longevity.

  4. Again I can only rely on persistent reports that the 3 top selling smartphones in the biggest markets are the iPhones X, 8 Plus and 8. Corroborated by a friend of mine who is the CEO of a national reseller of phone and network services.

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