Goldman Sachs sees U.S. unemployment rate hitting lowest level since the late-1960s

“The U.S. economy is heading into 2018 with strong momentum that’s likely to boost wages and inflation more broadly, requiring the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates four times next year, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists said in a research note,” Brendan Murray reports for Bloomberg.

“”The New York-based investment banking and securities firm raised its growth outlook for 2018 to 2.5 percent and lowered its forecast for unemployment to 3.7 percent by the end of 2018, said Goldman chief economist Jan Hatzius, a co-author of the note, which was released by email late Friday,” Murray reports. “Before the latest revision the most recent Goldman Sachs forecast for 2018 growth was 2.4 percent, according to forecasts compiled by Bloomberg.”

“The U.S. jobless rate, which was 4.1 percent in October, may reach 3.5 percent in late 2019, Goldman predicted,” Murray reports. “That would be the lowest level since the late-1960s.”

“‘Our projections would imply an evolution over the current cycle from the weakest labor market in postwar U.S. history to one of the tightest,’ the economists said in a summary of their report. ‘We expect that a tight labor market and a more normal inflation picture will lead the Fed to deliver four hikes next year,'” Murray reports. “In the world’s largest economy, the risk of a recession in the near term ‘still looks fairly limited,’ the Goldman economists wrote.””

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Boom!

This certainly bodes very well for the economy in general and for makers of coveted goods, like Apple, in particular.

Now, bring on the much-needed U.S. personal income and corporate tax reform and repatriation tax holiday!

American consumer confidence soars to highest level since December 2000 – October 31, 2017
U.S. jobless claims plunge to lowest level since 1973 – October 19, 2017
U.S. economy picks up steam; second-quarter GDP up 3.0% reflecting robust consumer spending and strong business investment – August 30, 2017
U.S. consumer confidence shows Americans upbeat on jobs, economy – July 25, 2017


    1. Let’s apply context and perspective.

      Obama brought unemployment down from 10.1% to 4.8%, for a decrease of 5.3%. Under Trump, it’s gone from 4.8% to 4.4% so far, for a 0.4% decrease.

      1. Certainly you are aware when large numbers retreat to fractions there is a percentage limit on how far it can go.

        To put it into proper perspective the final number is the gold standard accomplished under President Trump …

        1. Your comment makes no sense. The counter argument you should make is the the decrease under Obama was over eight years, versus one for Trump. That said, Trump has three (or seven) more years to go to see if the trend continues. The point is that it’s too early to take credit for a drop in unemployment. His success or failure can only be measured at the end of his term when his policies will have been implemented. Don’t pop the champagne yet.

          1. “The point is that it’s too early to take credit for a drop in unemployment.”

            Umm, the point is the unemployment number in less than a year under President Trump is ABSOLUTELY OUTSTANDING!

            I know you don’t like to hear that, SORRY, but Trump Train gets credit where credit is due.

            Keep your expensive champagne, I prefer the champagne barley water of the working class …

  1. And yet there is virtually 0 wage growth. The problem is that the US gov’t (all governments really) think that they can address the changes in the real economy with the same tools they used to deal with recessions over the past 100 years. Unfortunately it will not work, as we are in the midst of a technological revolution, not just a standard economic cycle. Governments won’t come up with any good solution to the problem of needing ever fewer workers.

    1. Of course, the article’s info is welcomed, but w/o the elephant-in-the-room part of the story, citizens are enabled to keep napping while the debt pillow is like Yellowstone’s super-volcano that’l someday blow a world-wide blanket of toxic instability. If you go partisan on this topic, you are blind. The R’s say it’s their (budget/debt, ect) issue and they’re hypocrites for not drawing a firm line. The D’s criticize R’s b/c they’re mean for “taking things away” from the working people…so, they’re foolish to spend what the don’t have. R’s = hypocrites…D’s = foolish. Both = self-serving palace dwellers.

      1. Not to mention that with a lower tax rate as well as continued low interest rates, the next time we have a slowdown, there will be no fiscal OR monetary means left to stimulate the economy and pull us out.

    1. A one (more)-time repatriation tax holiday to allow companies to bring the hundreds of billions of dollars they’ve already accumulated back home and corporate tax reform to address the need for any more repatriation tax holidays in the future.

    1. Gee, what a surprise.

      If you expect more from the biased MSM working for the Democrat Party that threw out critical thinking coverage the day Trump took office, you will be disappointed.

      But the good news is the American people see the bias for what it is and media circulation numbers continue to decline as a result …

Reader Feedback

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.