Despite new models, analyst expects fewer Apple Watch sales in 2016

“Apple may sell fewer Apple Watch models in 2016 than it did in 2015, according to research conducted by KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo,” Juli Clover reports for MacRumors.

“According to Kuo, the new Series 1 and Series 2 Apple Watch models suffer from a lack of ‘killer’ applications, inadequate battery life, a heavy reliance on the iPhone and a multi-touch UI that he does not feel will be the ideal solution for wearable devices,” Clover reports. “As a result of these perceived shortcomings, Kuo has cut his estimates for 2016 Apple Watch shipments by 15 to 25 percent, projecting sales of 8.5 to 9 million units during fiscal 2016.”

“Apple does not break down Apple Watch sales numbers and has never revealed how many of the wearable devices have sold,” Clover reports. “The new Apple Watch Series 2 looks identical to the Series 1 Apple Watch models but includes better waterproofing to make it suitable for use when swimming, GPS, a faster dual-core processor, and a brighter display. Series 1 models also feature a faster processor, but are otherwise unchanged from the original Apple Watch. ”

Apple Watch Series 2 with built-in GPS and water resistance to 50 meters
Apple Watch Series 2 with built-in GPS and water resistance to 50 meters

 
Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: As we wrote back in June 2015:

Ming-Chi Kuo is solid on predicting Apple product moves… but we’re not convinced on the accuracy his unit sales estimates, which require a completely different set of tools, methods, and talents than those used to, for example, discover Apple’s choice of case material or display sizes for the next-gen iPhone.

The accuracy of Ming-Chi Kuo’s predictions regarding Apple’s choice of specs and materials is very solid, but his ability to forecast product unit sales remains in question.

17 Comments

    1. jambro, please stop. you are making a fool out of your self. Besides, those 74 Samsung fans you mentioned have all experienced exploding phones already. So have some heart.

      /s

      1. jambro.
        Respectfully cannot agree.
        My wifey and five other family members bought watches and a year later they are all wearing them every single day.

        It’s not for me, too bulky in its current form, but you cannot say the product has not been a success.

        eldernorm
        Are you an elder or just elderly? 😀

  1. truthfully, watchOS3 just rocks and as a result Apple gave me a shiny updated watch for free. The waterproof feature and the standalone GPS in Series 2 are great for that part of Apple’s audience. For me all the awesome features in watchOS3 are evolutionary improvements that make me love Apple Watch even more. The body and crystal have held up fine; the battery life for my usage is fine. I love Apple for their willingness to cement user loyalty rather than relentless sales of new watches. I hope sales of Series 2 are terrific to keep Apple interested in advancing this product line.
    Dan

  2. I wonder why people don’t need BT earpods that stick out like Q-tips without noise cancelling… they only cost $160.

    I wonder why nobody needs an iPhone 7, it looks and works just like a iPhone 6S and 6, only without a way to listen to your gear without an adapter and a slightly better camera that you’ll never use anyhow.

    I wonder why no one needs a buggy, expensive, ATV 4 with missing features, no 4K and a crappy remote.

    I wonder why no one needs an overpriced, underpowered netbook with one port.

    I wonder why no one needs a buggy, expensive watch that requires an iPhone to even use it, and that has a battery which barely lasts a single day.

    I wonder why no one needs a professional desktop computer that hasn’t been updated in 3-years, can cost as much as 12-grand, is outdated before you buy it and can never be upgraded.

    I wonder why no one needs a giant iPad that costs a fortune but can’t do anything a regular iPad can do, except support a stylus that you’ll never use anyway.

    I wonder why no one needs a pricey music subscription service that is buggy and does everything a free service does, only worse.

    I wonder why no one buys AAPL anymore.

    1. Keep wondering my friend.

      It is obvious with your words that you clearly don’t know what you are talking about. Headliner galore…

      Nobody knows why Apple sells anyway. Once you jump in. You will understand.

      For now, stay in school because Apple ain’t cheap my friend

  3. Vs the Anal…ysts thinking Apple watch sales will be down…..

    These same guys think every sale of Apple will be down. They were sure the iPhone 7 would be way down…. now they just say the sales are not HUGE…

    Some people never get smarter…… (ps jambro, take note here)

  4. Hang on MDN if his predictions on specs and materials is so solid how come he is reducing his forecasts for the most part based on those very factors post launch. One presumes they are not as impressive then as he anticipated when he made up those original numbers prior to launch.

  5. Watch is niche. Won’t be mainstream until it’s half the size, with a round option (for looks), is always on, and has health benefits beyond what every other smart watch has.

    Sorry but it’s true. And existing owners won’t upgrade for Series 2. Sonyeah, fewer sold this year. I agree.

  6. I’m ready to buy an Apple Watch. Now has everything I need so this Friday will be placing my order. Pity for the delay in shipping though – now out to 3/4 weeks

  7. I own WATCH Sport since day one. Was going to buy Series 2. Changed my mind. Going from loaded iPhone 6s Plus to loaded 7 Plus instead. watchOS 3 solved 99% of my problems with the original WATCH. My favorite new iPhone 7 Plus feature is 256GB storage.🙂

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