“The more that I look at the Apple Watch, the more I realise that it is not another runaway hit as the iPhone was,” Ewan Spence writes for Forbes. “The wearable is following a similar pattern of adoption and understanding as the iPad. That promises a long and healthy life as a secondary product range, but not one that can create the sort of wealth that the iPhone fostered.”
“This week’s research note from KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi-Kuo suggests that Apple sold 10.6 million units during 2015,” Spence writes. “Even with the launch of a second-generation Apple Watch, the 2016 sales estimate is a smaller 7.5 million units in total – a thirty percent drop on the 2015 sales.”
“A single Apple Watch is going to have a much longer life cycle than the iPhone,” Spence writes. “It’s likely going to match the iPad in terms of hardware turnover and importance to Apple’s bottom line – a notable contribution but not a driving force.”
“And that’s fine,” Spence writes. “Not every piece of hardware can be a home run over the green monster. It’s just as important to grind out a win by getting on-base as often as possible.”
Read more in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: Actually, it’s way too soon to say what Apple Watch’s replacement cycle will be.
And, Ming-Chi Kuo is excellent when it comes to forecasting materials, specs and features, much better than he is at forecasting unit sales.