“In a note to clients Monday night, Piper Jaffrey analyst Gene Munster laid out a provocative theory about what Apple’s growing cadre of virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) experts might be up to,” Philip Elmer-DeWitt reprots for Fortune.
As a starting point, we expect in the next two years Apple will add VR to the MFi Program (Made for iPhone), which should make it easier for third parties to build virtual reality headsets powered by the iPhone, much like Samsung’s Gear VR today. In the next 5-10 years, we expect Apple to release a mixed reality headset with the long term goal (15+ years) of replacing the iPhone. — Piper Jaffrey analyst Gene Munster
“As Munster sees it,” P.E.D. reports, “screens as we know them today will slowly disappear and be replaced by holograms seamlessly overlaid with the real world through eyeglasses that cost $500 to $800, same as today’s iPhones.”
We believe 10 years from now Generation Z will find reality inefficient. Generation Z will see the benefits of mixed reality headsets that augment the world with real-time information as they need it and in their field of view, without needing to look at one piece of information at a time on a smartphone. — Piper Jaffrey analyst Gene Munster
Read more in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: Do not discount. We’re been running into spots where reality is far less efficient than AR for quite some time now.
“Generation Z will see the benefits of mixed reality headsets that augment the world with real-time information as they need it and in their field of view”
… and everybody else will laugh at them, just as they did with the Glassholes and before that at the people walking down the street always wearing BlueTooth earpieces.
There needs to be a sense of proportion with technology. We mustn’t become slaves to it or addicted to it. Technology should support the things we do in real life, but for some people technology totally controls their life.
…particularly, far-seeing analysts like Gene Munster. Next thing you know, he’ll be pushing neural implants, explaining that they would eliminate the need for wearable technology altogether. And you could get a discount on the surgical procedure by agreeing to an inconspicuous advert tattooed on your neck; something like “Intel Inside.”
MORE LIKE FOREHEAD!
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Totally agree. Technology, like fire, is a good servant, but a very bad master.
People are distracted enough without VR displays in their field of vision.
Technology is a part of modern life just like breathing or eating is. People watch content to be entertained or to escape. Others Snapchat or Instagram to communicate. Some research, code, engineer, and make discoveries using technology. People use microwaves, washers and dryers and drive vehicles.
Taking technology away would devastate many. Consider Egypt as an example: The government shutdown social media a few years ago and the people protested in mass. How would you feel if the government decided that society was too addicted to technology and banned grocery stores? This act would force the population to hunt and gather for food. But, of course technology is addicting, so no guns or compound bows would be allowed. I guess someone could tie a piece of string around a stick and chip some rock to make a bow and arrow, but this technology could still be deemed addictive and subject to a fine. Chasing after varmint with shoeless feet would probably be allowed.
How it really happens:
The tech industry releases crazy products that are barely functional.
The technology improves over time
Apple sees an opportunity to make the product work really well
Several years later Apple releases the killer product.
Every other tech company sees it and says “Now I get it”
Everyone copycats.
Scavenging after the battle can be a smart strategy…
Especially when you learn from everyone else’s mistakes.
“Everyone copycats.”
And that same “everyone” calls Apple the copycat, even though they were the only ones who made it worthwhile in the first place.
But copy they do…
Apple never copies or simply duplicates, that’s what Samsung does. Apple innovates on the idea and makes it their own. THEN others copy Apple’s lead since Apple would have figured out the correct approach.
Or as every good utility patent does, incorporates and applies prior art /a-tents into new inventions.
I don’t see everyone wanting to wear eyeglasses, even if they look stylish. I wear eyeglasses, and I prefer them to wearing contacts (or getting surgery), but I’m not “most people.”
This VR/AR stuff does not really catch on, until Apple finds a way to make it work without looking through a miniature screen over each eyeball.
Peripheral antennae on each temple that project images onto the eye. Or a hat-like device that does the same from the rim.
They better have self driving cars by then or generation Z will suffer from Darwinism.
Munster caught up to google’s failure?
I might wear dorky glasses to play games, even watch a movie or 3D documentary, but I like the fact that my handheld computer slips into a pocket and is out of the way.
Not a lot of use for showing something to somebody else if they don’t also have a (compatible) vr unit as well. With tech like airplay, airdrop, etc not being 100% usable I won’t hold my breath. The point is that we still have to interact with reality you can’t just ignore it.
Heaven help us all if that ever happens!!!
I’m already enjoying my Audio VR via ReSound hearing aids. They’re hardly visible, yet I can change programs automatically by location for various acoustic environments including listening to my iPhone media or receiving a phone call. These things are so good that even folks with great hearing might soon be flocking to get their Audio Alternative-Reality earphones.
Get outside. The resolution is WAY better.
The idea of myself wearing glasses on purpose with push notifications, alarms, messages, spam and more all trying to get my attention is a nightmare. How could that help me get better at anything?
That idea makes me feel like a sci-fi receptionist that could walk everywhere without any possible scape until she realizes she better stop the madness, takes the wanderGlasses out and destroys it.
Not surprised, analyst have been living outside of reality for years.
The usual abuse of the term ‘hologram.’
“As Munster sees it,” P.E.D. reports, “screens as we know them today will slowly disappear and be replaced by holograms seamlessly overlaid with the real world through eyeglasses that cost $500 to $800, same as today’s iPhones.”
NO!
A) Holograms refers strictly to 3-D imagery created by the interference patters of LASERS. No laser = no hologram. But even the likes of stupid Microsoft abuse the terminology. ‘Hololens’ <-NOT.
B) Yeah right, we're all going to wear AR/VR goggles on our heads. That will certainly be great at home. But out in the world at large they'd either be consider to be techno-aburd or outright dangerous and therefore illegal.
I PREDICT: The future iPhone will be a shoe phone. That makes just as much sense as this poorly thought out rubbish. Why do people pay you, Gene Munster? For laughs? 😕
Repair: “…they’d either be CONSIDERED to be techno-ABSURD or…”
This is absurd, and merely reveals that this guy has been watching way to many Star Trek series films, and has become fixated on the Borg, or may just Seven of Nine with her Borg implants! After all, taken to the natural conclusion of his vision, the BORG ARE THE END RESULT. No thanx, I will not be assimilated.
Several years ago Gene Rodenberry had a show called Earth: Final Conflict, the denizens of that show carried communicators that featured what appeared to be hand held devices that would unfurl at the press of a button into a screen, and would then roll up into a very small portable device. The screen could be made as large as was required, or inversely, as small as required. Not long ago I read that LG had either acquired or developed technology that would deliver such a screen made of some type of mylar, that could be rolled up, was touch sensitive, capable of full color, and other attributes that appeared to be able to deliver on what Gene envisioned in the late 90s. So I imagine this to be the next screen, the size of on ink pen that fits in a shirt pocket, an ink pen is about 6″ long, so the screen could be close to 6″ high and as wide as desired when unfurled, would be touch activated and thus ideal for some sort of AR without the need for BORG implants or unsightly & unnecessary add-on vision apparatus.