“Assuming that Apple doesn’t exceed its own guidance for the March quarter, the company will suffer a y/y revenue decline and probably a decline in iPhone sales as well,” Mark Hibben writes for SeekingAlpha. “Some have asserted that this represents ‘Peak iPhone’ and that iPhone sales will inevitably decline going forward.”
Hibben writes, “Such assertions ignore an important historical fact: the world has yet to see ‘Peak Mac.'”
“Except for the decline in 2013, annual Mac sales have been rising steadily since 2003. Fiscal 2015 represents an all-time high in Mac unit sales,” Hibben writes. “There have been several peaks in Mac sales that could have been declared “Peak Mac” with the same sense of finality that some are now declaring Peak iPhone.”
“Over the years, AAPL has been able to continue to innovate in the Mac OS X operating system, in hardware platforms, and in services such as the Mac App Store, iMessage, and FaceTime for the Mac,” Hibben writes. “Apple has been able to keep the platform fresh, and most importantly, keep it growing despite the competitive pressures of Microsoft and its hardware OEMs. Given that Apple has been able to achieve this with the Mac, how can anyone claim with certainty the iPhone is in permanent decline?”
“The next few months will probably wear on the nerves of Apple’s investors. Since the December-quarter earnings, the gloating of the Apple bears has been relentless, and it’s unlikely to let up anytime soon,” Hibben writes. “I wish it could be otherwise, but the next few months will definitely test the mettle of Apple investors. I remain long Apple and recommend it as a buy for those with long-term (3-5 year) investment horizons.”
Read more in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: Smart long-term investors can see the forest for the trees.
SEE ALSO:
Why the Mac has so much staying power; Apple’s indomitable workhorse deserves some praise – February 5, 2016
SAP: Apple’s Macintosh is key for any modern enterprise – February 4, 2016
Apple’s Mac sales continue to outgrow Windows PCs – January 20, 2016
Apple Macs gain even more share against Microsoft Windows PCs – July 23, 2015
And the forest is vast…
Yup, Apple has barely touched India, which may become the most populous nation on Earth in the near future.
Agree we haven’t seen Peak iPhone or Peak Mac. But what about Peak iPad?
No. The rush for an Apple tablet pushed that original peak higher, and faster than it should’ve. It’ll settle down to a consistent level and slowly make its way back up as non-early adopters move their computing to a “post-pc” device.
People will eventually tire of using their smartphone for everything, and the next logical step for them will be a tablet that they are already familiar with.
Apple’s tablet competitors would LOVE to have the same iPad sales (and profit) problems with their tablets.
Microsoft and Google long ago shot their entire load and been pretty much flaccid ever since. It was all they could apparently manage.
I have an original iPad and iPad mini. I”m considering buying another one of the larger tablets this year. I want to see them first. The replacement cycle is longer, but after a while, I think I”ll be overcome by the desire for a better display and faster processor. 2016 might be the year.
I’ve got $5,000+ I’m Praying to be able to give them…where’s my 5k iMac w/Thunderbolt 3 and matching 13″ Macbook or Macbook Air…PLEASE Apple – take my $$$$
Peak iPhone will be when better technology/hardware is introduced. What could these disrupter technologies be? AR might be a choice, but the current designs such as Microsoft’s HoloLens are bulky and not very portable. The other issue with AR is the input methods. Voice/Siri, while getting slightly more accurate over the years, is still not as efficient as touch and type.
A type of AR device that could disrupt the smartphone is a stylish AR device that is also a BCI. While some of the current non-evasive BCI devices allow the user to play some games, navigate the web, etc., they are still cumbersome and not completely accurate. Texting/word input is doable, but slow. It appears it will take time to fully flush-out non-evasive brain controlled interfaces.
An invention that could disrupt both smartphones and tablets sooner than AR and BCI is a hybrid device that can be folded or stretched from an iPhone into an iPad. These types of devices could replace all phones and some of the tablets. Apple controls a lot of these patents, which means they have a competitive advantage.
And there are still areas for improvement with the current devices like 5G, wireless charging at a distance(no need for charging pads), better batteries, hologram displays, faster chips, AI, etc.
As long as Apple is on the path they are on with all Macs they will never hit the “peak.”
The Titanic is not sinking… someone help me re-arrange these deckchairs.
“iPhone sales will inevitably decline going forward.”
This makes me wonder if it is possible for iPhone sales to decline going BACKWARDS?
I thought Mac peaked in 2008.
Apple gave up on the laptop and desktop world years ago. That’s why they have never achieved double digit marketshare with OSX. Won 10 actually achieved greater marketshare than the entire OSX install base within the first 100 days of release.
The current iMac ships standard with a 5400rpm HDD, as it did when it was first released! There is still no biometric login capability. The platform is a place-holder only.
Apple is a phone company. It is 67% revenue and 80% of their profits. That is what they do. They do it well but they have hit the wall in terms of innovation and growth.
In addition, the rising $US makes iPhones very expensive in foreign markets where growth can be found.
Sorry, I forgot to that iPad was down 25% in the last quarter ad Macbook down 4%. If I were a shareholder I would be selling while the stock is still worth something.