KGI estimates up to 75M iPhone, 15.5M iPad, 5.6M Mac, and 4M Apple Watch sales in holiday quarter

“KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has released shipments forecasts for the iPhone, iPad, Mac and Apple Watch for upcoming fiscal quarters,” Joe Rossignol reports for MacRumors.

“Kuo estimates between 70-75 million iPhone and 3.5-4 million Apple Watch shipments during Q1 2016 of the fiscal year, which encompasses the busy holiday shopping season in the U.S., Australia, Canada, Europe and many other regions,” Rossignol reports. “Kuo also forecasts between 14.5-15.5 million iPad shipments and 5.4-5.6 million Mac shipments in fiscal Q1 2016, which lines up with Q4 2015 of the calendar year, a three-month period ending December 31. ”

Rossignol reports, “The analyst expects iPad Pro shipments to be around 2 million in fiscal Q1 2016, and believes the tablet’s higher selling price will help offset an annual decline in iPad shipments, which could fall 16% to 40-42 million units in 2016.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Kuo’s Apple Watch estimates seem light. We expect Apple Watch to be a popular gift item this Christmas.


  1. The infallible Ming has a terrible track record on his predictions of AAPL sales figures. He has outstanding intelligence on supply chain that translates into great inside information regarding product releases, but his track record on sales predictions is usually millions off. The translation of new products to sales numbers is voodoo and Ming is just another guesstimator and not the Oracle of Delphi.

  2. And how many millions of AppleTV? Hey KGI, I don’t think AppleTV is going to stay a hobby for Apple. This Christmas it should be a hit. I’m not waiting till then to get mine though!

  3. Ming is bringing me down. Those numbers would probably be impressive for any other company on the planet, but for Apple it looks like another quarter down the drain in terms of share gains. I simply can’t wrap my head around Apple’s revenue and profits causing Apple’s share value to collapse every quarter. I can’t imagine how Apple is going to increase it’s revenue significantly enough to satisfy Wall Street. I don’t think it’s possible.

      1. Those numbers get me to $74B vs the Street at $76B. I agree that those would bring the stock down. There aren’t many that are below the $74M iPhones from last year Q1. Remember, they gain a week by moving launch later. Buy back is good, but not if they were buying at $130.

  4. We are actually seeing 3 days of positive gains for Apple. A couple of released numbers like iTune paid subscriptions may be helping the street by removing the uncertainty. A very rough calculation from Ming’s numbers is around $70BB revenue.

  5. Unless something very strange is going on I don’t understand the iPhone predictions. He’s predicting zero or negative iPhone growth. The last three quarters have been Q1 46%, Q2 40%, Q3 35% growth. I’d expect to see Q4 sales of 52-3M. We’ll soon find out Q4 sales and Q1 guidance next week.

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