The Apple Watch demand FUD is out of control

“A significant swath of the Wall Street analyst community and financial press seem determined to prove that the Apple Watch is a failure: even if it means ignoring key facts and context,” Adam Levine-Weinberg writes for The Motley Fool. “”

“A story by MarketWatch columnist Brett Arends with the blaring headline “Apple Watch Sales Plunge 90%” epitomizes this attitude,” Levine-Weinberg writes. “There was a nugget of truth behind Arends’ headline — a sales estimate from Slice Intelligence — but it was ripped out of context in order to mislead readers.”

MarketWatch hack claims ‘Apple Watch sales plunge 90%’ – July 7, 2015

“The firm estimated that Apple sold 1.4 million Apple Watches during the first week of online availability (which began on April 10). After that initial surge, Slice’s data shows weekly sales staying fairly steady in a range of roughly 150,000-175,000 per week through the week of May 31. That suggests Apple had sold another 1 million or so Apple Watches by the end of May. It was only in June that Apple Watch sales in the U.S. apparently plummeted to 100,000 or less per week,” Levine-Weinberg writes. “It’s possible that the “90% slowdown” picked up by Slice Intelligence (and fixated upon by the MarketWatch column) is partially an artifact of its data-collection method. It’s surprising that Apple Watch sales would have held steady around 150,000-175,000 per week for a month and a half before suddenly plunging to half that level.”

“However, the Apple Watch started to become available in stores in mid-June. As of June 17, Apple allowed customers in the U.S. to reserve the Apple Watch online for an in-store demo and (hopefully) purchase,” Levine-Weinberg writes. “Recall that Slice Intelligence tracks sales volume via e-receipts. While Apple does send e-receipts for many in-store purchases, it’s possible that a shift in customer buying behavior (in favor of the Apple Store rather than online) is making the drop in Apple Watch sales look worse than it is.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: As we wrote on Tuesday:

Ooh, look at that dramatic, oh-so-worrisome “drop-off” that began in mid-June – or precisely when Apple Watch began arriving in Apple Retail Stores. It would seem that Slice is not seeing emailed electronic receipts from Apple Retail Stores to their customers. Shocker.

As for Bret Arends, here’s a little something the hack scribbled for MarketWatch back in January 2011:

Here’s how it’s going to go down: First, scammers will go into the derivatives market and buy a bunch of put options on Apple shares. Puts are effectively a bet that a stock will drop quickly. Then they’ll send out word that Steve Jobs is terminally ill with cancer and isn’t expected to return to work. Simple. Easy. Free money.

(Above, substitute “Steve Jobs is terminally ill with cancer and isn’t expected to return to work” with “Apple Watch sales plunge 90%.” – MDN Ed.)

The stock will plummet. Nervous investors will bail in panic. The put options will balloon in value… The scam artists will cash out, and walk away. What makes this possible is Apple’s refusal to say anything whatsoever about Jobs’s illness or his absence.

(Above, substitute “Jobs’s illness or his absence” with “Apple Watch unit sales figures.” – MDN Ed.)

Nature abhors a vacuum. And if Apple won’t offer details, that leaves the door wide open for others.

Brett sees the door wide open, an information vacuum into which he’ll happily take a dump. Don’t fall for his shit.

Profit from it.

MarketWatch hack claims ‘Apple Watch sales plunge 90%’ – July 7, 2015


  1. why worry about it?

    these people, the fudsters, are going to do what they do. that wall street is a rigged game is no secret to anyone and the fact that the sec will do nothing is equally obvious.

    so the stock value goes down… it is not like mr. apple is barely hanging on and a drop in valuation is going to imperil its future viability.

    for those of us in the long haul, it is a buying opportunity, not to mention we are doing quite nicely with the dividends as well, thank you very much.

    even if things continue to go lower, even much lower, this has happened before and the stock has always rebounded stronger than before.

    this also presents mr. apple with another golden opportunity to buy back more stock at a discount.

    relax, it is summer. maybe hit down a mikes hard lemonade and watch the show, and buy on the downswing.

  2. Clever.

    The watch, like the first iPhone, is ahead of its time.

    Wait until it is a standalone product and developers gets their ideas together…

    The watch is here to stay. At the end of the year, this will all be dusted FUD like so many Apple colateral verbal diarrhea from the jealous market competition and paid anal-ysts.

    In the meantime, buy, buy, buy AAPL!

  3. Same MO: just prior to earnings, knock the stock down 10-20% which keeps it lower than due, even after a rise after block buster record earnings results… For more of the same FUD and shenanigans…

  4. “other” revenue will be 1.6B$ without watches (from long term extrapolation). all beyond that can be attributed to watches.
    my guess is 3M watches at 550$ each, this will lead to 3.25B$ in “other”.

      1. The blackout period starts about five weeks before the earnings release and extends to about 48 hours after earnings are reported.

        The earnings release will be July 21.

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