Apple Watch’s long-term success depends on trailblazing early adopters

“After spending time with Apple Watch, it became abundantly clear why people will like the device: it’s new and cool. A device that can fit into one’s life, but still seemingly blend away when not in use, shares many similarities to the iPhone,” Neil Cybart writes for Above Avalon. “While coolness may not be enough to use as the conclusion of a 5,000-word product review, and it certainly won’t cause the general public to run out to an Apple store and spend $400+ on a watch, it will lead to imagination. Apple Watch’s long-term success will depend on the people pre-ordering the device today; the trailblazers who view the Watch’s potential with the same eye that saw iPhone’s potential in its early years. ”

“Watching people of all ages try on and interact with the Apple Watch, the impression I got was that most saw it as an interesting watch. That is to be expected considering the wrist was ruled by the watch for decades and anything destined for the same spot on our bodies will likely be initially compared to a watch. This is one reason why I heard a few complaints about the screen turning off when not pointed at the wearer, or having to charge it each night. Regular watches don’t have those ‘tradeoffs,'” Cybart writes. “The same was said about iPhone ‘drawbacks’ such as not having a keyboard and needing to charge it more frequently compared to feature phones.”

Much more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: As we wrote on April 9th: [These surveys of Apple Watch desirability are all happening] before Apple Watch lands on the wrists of friends and coworkers. That percentage will rise dramatically after Apple Watch launches. In a survey of 3,489 people conducted in April 2007, two months before Apple launched something called the “iPhone,” ChangeWave found that 9% said they were likely to buy an iPhone once it became available. Extrapolate.

As we wrote on March 27th: Just like the tens of millions who said they didn’t want or need an iPhone, who are now on their fifth iPhone, so it’ll go with Apple Watch.

As we wrote last September: Apple Pay capability will sell more Apple Watches than any other feature. After the initial launch weekend rush, once average people see the early adopters seamlessly paying with their Apple Watch, that’s when the wildfire sales will begin to rage.

And, as we wrote last week:
Here’s what makers of Swiss or any other watches should do: Push the idea of wearing of two watches, one on each wrist or two on one wrist, into vogue. Because once people start using Apple Watch, they aren’t going to want to leave it at home. Ever. They won’t want to go to dinner parties without their Apple Watch. And that’s bad, bad news for watchmakers not named Apple.

Furthermore, as we wrote on March 30th: The amount of Android to iPhone upgraders that Apple Watch triggers is going to boggle the minds of some pundits. These generally new-to-Apple users will also eventually purchase Macs and iPads due to Continuity and handoff. Watch and see.


  1. Yep, the Apple Watch is to wrist watches, in the same way the iPhone was to cell phones. They may be called a Watch and a Phone, but in reality they are tiny computers in a convenient package.

    When the iPhone was launched in 2007, one could hardly imagine what you could do with a computer in your pocket, and now apparently many can’t imagine what you can do with one on your wrist.

    1. Yes, early adopters will determine Watch’s success. Um, wait, they already have by selling out of pre-orders in minutes. And that was before any third party apps were even available to preview. Just wait until the app developers release their horde of apps to truly explode Watch’s capabilities. Then the Watch’s success will make April 10 look like a bucket in the ocean.

  2. I ordered the black stainless steel watch that comes with the link bracelet. That combo can be worn anywhere with casual to dress up. I also ordered a black sport band for every day use. I love a good combo platter.

  3. Just like many others, this reviewer doesn’t totally get it. The Apple Watch is not an iPhone. It’s an ACCESSORY to and dependant upon the iPhone. Comparing the two is thus a mistake. The Watch needs an iPhone, the iPhone doesn’t need it. Neither did the first iPhone need another device to fully function. Apple is asking people to spend hundreds of dollars on an iPhone accessory that is hamstrung by poor battery life and a tiny screen.

    It remains to be seen how successful the Watch is over the next year.

    The other point about battery life is important. My iPhone 6 Plus has a massive battery. I’m leaving the house with half a charge, and my MacBook Pro has half a charge. I don’t care, you know why? Because I can use them plugged in! I’ll have my iPhone plugged into my car and mounted AND using it for maps, music, etc. while I drive. When I get to the office, my MacBook Pro will be plugged in and used at the same time.

    The problem with the Apple Watch is that it’s not something you use plugged in. You need to wear it. And when u wear it, you can’t charge it.

    This alone is what I predict will cause issues for people with this first gen. As the months go on, we’ll see people saying it’s collecting dust because they forgot to charge it.

    Not everyone of course, but this is a reality with 1 day battery life with a device you can’t really use while charging.

    I also predict that the demand will taper off because the device won’t have sustained appeal due to lack of utility: people will jump more and more directly to their smaetphones and bypass the watch. Cool product, but slightly redundant.

    We’ll see how my predictions fare. iCal me.

        1. A sure sign of an impending runaway hit (actually already there) when case makers start cranking out new bands, protective cases, battery bands, etc. before the product is even available in stores.

    1. You may be as clueless as everyone who is pontificating on the watch. No one will know anything until users have time to appreciate and adjust. When they do, then we will know what we know and what we don’t know.

      1. Dean:

        What is the reading comprehension problem here? Read my post many more times, you’ll notice I said exactly that: we need time to see what happens with the Watch. My prediction is what I said. There will be issues and there won’t be sustained demand and use to the extend of past new Apple products because of flaws in the product and flaws in ghe whole concept of using a watch as a medium to compute.

    2. People are making a big deal about having to take the Apple Watch off each night in order to charge it. While I’m sure that future versions will have a longer battery life, the fact is, I seldom wear my watch to bed. For years, I’ve taken it off and laid it on the nightstand when I go to bed. I haven’t any references to a professional poll, but I suspect most people do the same. So the concept of taking the watch off and laying it on a magnetic charger cable isn’t foreign to a lot of people, since they typically take their watch off anyway.

      1. netcruizer:

        You oversimplify the problem. The problems are:

        1. There are people who want to wear a smartwatch at night for sleep monitoring.
        2. Having to worry about charging yet ANOTHER device can be annoying. Reading the early reviews of the Watch, many stated it was an issue to have to charge it everyday in this context.
        3. You oversimplify people’s lives. People live dynamically. They’re active. They camp. They go on hikes. Vacations. Etc. it’s not the case that people just do the same thing each day where they go to bed and can charge the Watch.
        4. You can’t use the watch while it’s charging. If you leave the house in the mornig and don’t hit the office, say you’re a real estate agent, or whatever, you’re not going to be able to use your Apple Watch that day.

        1. Why make it harder than it has to be?
          1. The Apple Watch is not sold as a sleep monitor. (at least not yet), so if you want a sleep monitor, than go buy a sleep monitor. When version 2 or 3 of the Apple Watch begins to offer sleep monitoring, then you can buy an Apple Watch. I’m sure by then, they’ll have figured out the battery/charging issues.
          2. I agree with you on this one, adding another device or charger to the mix can be irritating. None of my current watches need a charger.
          3. While people live dynamically, they do tend to follow certain behaviors even while doing other things like camping, or traveling on vacation or business. Charging a watch at night for a few hours is not really that complicated.
          4. True, you can’t use the watch while its charging, but again, a few hours of charging while you’re asleep shouldn’t be an issue. On the rare occasions that you forget to plug the watch up, you still have your phone to tell time.

          Either way, I’ll know for sure when mine arrives. 🙂

    3. You’re iCal’d, because your comments are ridiculous. You can plug your Watch in at work, too, should you so choose. Plus, with such a small battery, it should charge very quickly. And the third party apps haven’t even been unleashed yet, which are going to make the Watch much more useful than what people have seen thus far.

    4. Hey, didn’t you learn anything from your recent rant last week? You offer nothing different here, we get it! you don’t see the utility in the Apple Watch. I, and millions of others do, but none of us expect you to buy one, and, you know… that’s OK.

    5. There are already 2 wrist band chargers for WATCH announced. So your main premise is flawed. Plus the watch does do some things without an iPhone. Plus even when it does need the iPhone, it only needs wifi connectivity not short range Bluetooth.💥👀😱⌚️😀

  4. The earth’s long term success depends on the sun rising in the east every morning and setting in the west.

    Capt. Obvious

    ps – all Apple products depended on early adopters and . . . This just in: All products in the world depend on early adopters.

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