Next quarters for Apple: How much will iPhone demand drop?

“Investors are optimistic that Apple’s earnings report coming after the closing bell Tuesday will beat expectations, but what happens to iPhone demand in the next quarter is the big question,” Josh Lipton reports for CNBC.

“Apple’s stock has enjoyed a very strong run. In the past 12 months, it has surged some 45 percent. And it’s coming in red hot for this earnings report: In just the past five days, the stock is up over 6 percent,” Lipton reports. “Of course, a lot of the enthusiasm has to do with iPhone demand.”

“But what happens in the months ahead, specifically during the first and second quarters?” Lipton reports. “Analysts at RBC think iPhone shipments will slow down hard from 64 million to 50 million units, a 22 percent drop. ‘The deceleration is really a reflection of the fact that you get some seasonal patterns that kick into the March quarter,’ said RBC’s Amit Daryanani. ‘Also, supply starts to get in line with demand. And the initial rush of the iPhone demand is behind you.'”

MacDailyNews Take: Yes, Virginia, after Santa comes, sales tend to settle down a bit.

Lipton reports, “If RBC is right, that deceleration in iPhone shipments would be worse than last year, when it dropped 16 percent from the first quarter to the second quarter.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Or RBC could be wrong. It wouldn’t be the first time.

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    1. And China has different holidays that the west, so the second quarter drop off may be somewhat offset by growing demand in China. Also, the fact that iPhone supply was somewhat constrained during the first quarter may also reduce the drop off for the next quarter as supply begins to catch up.

    1. Buy a huge Android phone and enjoy screwing around with it endlessly.

      In three or four months, the boredome will have gone and you will get to beat the android phone with a hammer and come back to the fold.

    2. I think that everyone would love to see some really cool, new, groundbreaking Apple products, trondude. But paradigm-changing devices like the iPod and iPhone do not come along everyday. Meanwhile, technology advances incrementally month to month and year to year getting smaller, faster, more efficient, and more capable. That may be a little boring, but it still adds a lot of value to the system.

  1. Apple is selling a huge number of iPhones in China and the Chinese New Year is next month, so there is likely to be a new cycle of purchases that was barely there before, furthermore a lot of those iPhones will be the larger screen versions, so the average selling price will hold up well too.

    Analysts seem obsessed with scrutinising the past, but rarely understand what is clearly visible ahead.

  2. I see just the opposite … I see sales steady to increasing and here’s why:

    More and more new iPhones 6 and 6+ are out in the wild …. I am seeing them show up at work and I am hearing the SamDung Phine Owners and other saying:

    When my contract is up I’m getting an iPhone!

    So as more and more folks see …. More and more will want, you can’t stop the train!

  3. ssshhh. I picked up my girlfriend’s iPhone 5S and it is near useless compared to the 6. this is going to be a monster upgrade cycle the likes analysts have not seen, plus apple is adding new customers at the expense of Samsung.

  4. Sales may slow compared to the last quarter, but they will be markedly increased from this quarter 2014. China is just opening up, and the iPhone 6/6Plus is a huge hardware update for anyone and everyone, iOS or Android user. Apple will sell every last iPhone it can make and will be looking for additional capacity.

  5. I think the more that non-iPhone users see Pay in use, the more they will be drawn to iPhone 6 and 6+….and the more that people start using, the more companies will begin to see the wisdom of accepting Pay. It’s a wonderfully vicious cycle.

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