Apple Q414: Highest guidance error since Apple began new range-bound estimates

“In Q3 2014 Apple’s revenues were 5.3% higher than the upper end of their guidance,” Horace Dediu reports for Asymco. “This is the highest error in guidance since the new range-bound reporting regime started two years ago.”

“Since the newer, presumably more accurate method was introduced in 2012, the errors have decreased on average. As a result, for these two years, forecasting performance for Apple was no longer challenging,” Dediu reports. “The only questions for the analyst were how to allocate the revenues among products and to guess how many shares would be retired.”

Dediu wonders, “Is this about to change? Could forecasting make a comeback as sport and leisure?”

Read and see more in the full article here.

Related articles:
Apple’s Q414: The amateur analysts called it. The pros blew it. – October 21, 2014
Apple bulldozes Street with record quarterly revenue of $42.1 billion – October 20, 2014


  1. Regulars here at MacDailyNews know the strong reasons (all of these overlap):

    1. back to school sales
    2. iOS and OS features at WWDC for developers
    3. IBM partnership
    4. Apple Pay
    5. general stability in the iOS ecosystem (even without IBM)

    1. So, all of these contributed to an impressive quarter.

      Even the iPods 2 M sales is not to be brushed away. The comprehensiveness of the range of hardware products allows something for every customer, even the hardcore Android or Windows user.

      1. The iPod has been swept away a long time ago and for a number of years been considered a boat anchor for earnings by Wall Street. Wall Street considers any product that doesn’t move some needle at Apple a complete waste of time. I say any money is money but Wall Street dismisses anything that isn’t large enough to interest them. I’m sure the iPod line is still profitable for Apple, and they’re still fine products although somewhat aged.

        1. Wall Street is so out of anything Apple it is so sad. They only make themselves look even more stupid.

          My stock advisor kept pushing Muni and other funds and not to stick with Apple. It’s so dangerous to have only one stock.!!!!

          This time, checking the return rate over the last year, he just could not believe the roi. ” guess that Apple stock did good for you.” He said.

          That was at 92. Lol just so clueless.

  2. Poor boy, poor Horace, did poor boy not be given a goodie good number by Apple Wapple. Did Apple Wapple make an error? Bad baddie Apple. Poor mistreated Dediu. Poor boy!

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