“Apple is expected to report earnings on Tuesday, July 22nd,” WhisperNumber writes for Seeking Alpha.
“The whisper number is $1.28, five cents ahead of the analysts’ estimate and showing some confidence from investors,” WhisperNumber writes. “Whispers range from a low of $1.20 to a high of $1.35. Apple has a 70% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 45 of the 64 earnings reports for which we have data).”
“The whisper number has been more accurate than analysts’ estimates in 76% of earnings reported since 1998,” WhisperNumber writes. “Last quarter the company reported earnings $1.33 ahead of the whisper number. Following that report the stock realized an 11.8% gain in thirty trading days.”
Read more in the full article here.
Let’s stop quoting stories blindly.
There’s a BEFORE and an AFTER , apples and oranges statistics mixed up here.
BEFORE is Steve Jobs era when whisper number was historically low. Enter Tim Cook era. Earnings guidance is way more accurate now and so are the whisper numbers.
Blowout numbers may occur, but are smaller and tempered by disappointments elsewhere. iPad and iTunes sales are comparatively weaker. iPod revenues are a cup of water.
That’s said, this past 6 months and next 6 months is a mighty wind.
Yes look for .10 above street numbers!
All the manipulators and slime are crawling out of their damp mold ridden underlining this morning. Ready to build up the expectations in order for Apple to disappoint. Thus providing a huge buying opportunity, to just ramp up fever and Suck Out huge profits like a BLOOD SUCKING VAMPIRE.
Feel better now, Sonny?
I. Loathe. Whisper. Numbers.
Not just for Apple but for all publicly traded companies. I wish they could be declared unlawful. They set false expectations and make realistic targets unreachable.
I cringed when I read an article published earlier today by MDN on analyst consensus for sales and earnings projections for Apple and specific product lines. I instantly felt they were too high relative to Apple’s guidance. Hype, rumors, whispers and hysteria push analyst expectations unrealistically high, which results in a plummet in a stock’s price due to “performing beneath analyst expectations.”
Expectations? How about, “I don’t know what I’m doing, so I’ll act like a sheep in the herd and plug in similar projections to what the other sheep are bleating.” With few expectations, that’s how the herd of analyst moves, blocking cars in their path.
I won’t say it’s a game. But I remain unimpressed by how analysts arrive at their projections. Of course, analysts aren’t doing their job for the benefit of retail investors, but institutional investors. I get that. But when a schmuck like me can cringe at the projections in advance of an Apple quarterly earnings announcement, that’s a bad sign. And don’t get me started on the amateur analysts. They fared even worse. It’s not that they’re amateurs – in many cases, they do better homework. But it’s the bias of being a fanboy (which I am admittedly) – their projections were even higher than the Wall Street pros.
Summary: we set ourselves up to fail. Guys, can you not pay closer attention to Apple’s guidance? The old lowballing tricks Apple once used are history. Be realistic next time. Please.
Now get ready for the ubiquitous “Apple disappoints Wall Street and underperforms again” meme articles in 5, 4, 3, 2, 1…
It’s why I remind myself to ignore the BS and look at the long term, something analysts never do.
Yeah, it’s always infuriated me…
Apple: “We project profits of $1.15 a share.”
Analysts: “Our prediction is $1.20 a share.”
Whisper-whisper: “Hey, I’m hearing Apple will report $1.25 a share!”
Headline: “Massive Failure From Apple As Profits Only Reach $1.19 / Share!”
Apple: “But, but — That was better than our projections! You assholes just made that up- aw f*** it.”
——RM