“Venture Capitalist Fred Wilson recently spoke at the TC Disrupt conference in NYC where the outspoken investor had some interesting things to say about Apple,” Yoni Heisler writes for TUAW.
“Not one to mince words, Wilson boldly proclaimed that Apple by 2020 will no longer be one of the top three tech companies as measured by market cap. Instead, the top there spots will be occupied by Google, Facebook, and another company that we haven’t yet heard of,” Heisler writes. “Now to be sure, anticipating which companies might be market cap leaders six years into the future is a fool’s errand. Nonetheless, the reasoning Wilson proffers is nothing more than the oft-cited drivel that folks who don’t really grasp what Apple is all about like to bring up.”
“The notion that Apple is “too rooted to hardware” isn’t a new one. Still, it’s perplexing why some folks continue to gloss over the fact that Apple’s business model of developing both software and hardware is precisely the reason why the company has been so successful,” Heisler writes. “As for the argument that “hardware is increasingly becoming a commodity”, well, there’s a big difference between hardware being prevalent and hardware being a commodity”
Read more in the full article here.
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VC Fred Wilson: By 2020 Apple won’t be a top-3 tech company, but Google and Facebook will – May 5, 2014
This from an Apple bear who completely missed the Apple boom from the days of the iPod to now. Smart fella…or something.
Are you sure that isn’t actually Fred Flintstone, Stone Age Anal-Cyst?
Apple will dethrone Google in the search field – Steve has one last thing he would like to show us!
Hardware docent matter? That’s crazy. I will pay to get nice(Apple) hardware any day. Accepting crappy hardware because it’s cheap/free is a foolish mistake. Clearly this guy has no appreciation for quality in workmanship. I’m guessing he owns some Samdung phone he got free with a contract and a $200 Chrome book.
This guy knows why the other guy talks FUD.
Part of the reason Android phones are so annoying to use and have such problems is because the Android universe is fragmented into numerous hardware configurations, most built on the cheap so that the handset maker can squeak out some profit.
The best software in the world is useless without good hardware to run it. And Apple has by far the best integration of hardware and software in any industry.
Plus, Apple is investing heavily in specific hardware innovations to separate itself from its competitors and make its products far superior.
Running a venture capital firm takes a lot less brains, creativity, and genius than running Apple.
Is he going to write the related articles about how Ferrarri, Porsche, Burberry and Tiffany are all going to collapse… because cars, clothes and jewelry are all commodities?
“‘…it’s perplexing why some folks continue to gloss over the fact that Apple’s business model of developing both software and hardware is precisely the reason why the company has been so successful,” Heisler writes. “As for the argument that “hardware is increasingly becoming a commodity”, well, there’s a big difference between hardware being prevalent and hardware being a commodity”
I’m not sure the important notion is that there is a difference, it’s that even when hardware becomes a commodity, there is always a market for superior hardware. Chasing marketshare means making shit when hardware is commoditized. However, despite the sage advice of the Enderles of the world (does he even exist anymore? We used to get linked to his drivel all the time 4+ yrs ago), chasing marketshare in hardware is not the key to making profit – it’s simply one possible way. While that avenue is pursued by everyone else, Apple focuses on making flagship class hardware. More importantly than that, their software, again not focused on profit by itself, is customized to work with their hardware instead of being diluted by front end bullshit of carrier or hardware manufactures, is optimized to work with their hardware and provide a great user experience. Are there flaws in UE? Sure. But those problems are inherently more frequent in the Android ecosystem.
Ah, yes. The Enderle Group. Perhaps TUAW should’ve sought comment from one of the “Group,” such as Rob’s dog 😉
Running a Ponzi scheme 24×7 must be tough on the noggin. I guess he’s now hit the point of making his delusions public.
Apple is not just another VAR (value added reseller). Most companies who make products similar to Apple products are VARs. They assemble a package consisting of someone else’s OS, CPU, GPU, and LCD. Apple makes its own operating systems for each of its devices. If you want an Apple OS you need an Apple device. If you want Windows or Android, there are at least a dozen choices. While some people would say that consumers win with the selection, there’s a lot to be said for the hardware and software being tweaked by the same staff. Additionally the choice means that the main point of competition is on price, resulting in cost cutting measures that result in fragile plastic and sheet metal crap.
Yeah, an ATX motherboard is a commodity. So is an ATX etc. tower/mini-tower case. When was the last time Apple produced anything like that?
I bet Fred doesn’t drive a nice car since clearly they’re the same as all the other cars out there that don’t cost as much.
Said the same thing about computers and how did that one work out for the concept, at least as far as Apple is concerned.
“another company that we haven’t yet heard of.” – Sounds like he either had a remote viewing session or ran a query through the Bible Code, etc. I do not believe the future is set in stone any longer because there are multiple timelines now.
Another venture capitalist huckster scamming people into investing in what? A new top 3 market cap company that nobody’s heard of yet that will get there in 6 years? And telling investors to stay away from Apple because it’s hardware will become a commodity. He and all the dipwads that invest with him deserve the vaporization of their money.
Here’s one of Merriam-Webster’s definitions of “commodity”: “a good or service whose wide availability typically leads to smaller profit margins and diminishes the importance of factors (as brand name) other than price”
What a nitwit. The reason Apple has had its success is in knowing how to produce products that aren’t commodities.
There is a never ending supply of dullards. Also from Merriam-Webster, here’s an entertaining list of synonyms for dullard:
“airhead, birdbrain, blockhead, bonehead, bubblehead, chowderhead, chucklehead, clodpoll (or clodpole), clot [British], cluck, clunk, cretin, cuddy (or cuddie) [British dialect], deadhead, dim bulb [slang], dimwit, dip, dodo, dolt, donkey, doofus [slang], dope, dork [slang], idiot, dumbbell, dumbhead, dum-dum, dummkopf, dummy, dunce, dunderhead, fathead, gander, golem, goof, goon, half-wit, hammerhead, hardhead, ignoramus, imbecile, jackass, know-nothing, knucklehead, lamebrain, loggerhead [chiefly dialect], loon, lump, lunkhead, meathead, mome [archaic], moron, mug [chiefly British], mutt, natural, nimrod [slang], nincompoop, ninny, ninnyhammer, nit [chiefly British], nitwit, noddy, noodle, numskull (or numbskull), oaf, pinhead, prat [British], ratbag [chiefly Australian], saphead, schlub (also shlub) [slang], schnook [slang], simpleton, stock, stupe, stupid, thickhead, turkey, woodenhead, yahoo, yo-yo”
He might be right, given Wall Streets propensity to ignore actual performance when valuing stocks. That doesn’t mean Apple won’t still be producing great products in a profitable fashion. It just means that Apple will be under valued in the stock market.
Since Apple doesn’t need Wall Street to raise capital, it doesn’t matter much. At the end of the day, Wall Street shenanigans will doom it to irrelevancy long before there’s a stronger tech company than Apple.
And of course Facebook whose future is at the whim of teenagers who could abandon it in a single moment is a good bet. A vapourware company. And of course Google whose android strategy delivers well nothing. And it’s Apple with the only P/E that I s anything approaching reality from the low side, which is the only company with any creative capacity in either software or hardware isn’t going to make it? This guy is stunningly stupid or some kind of manipulative ingenuous prick.