“Yhe US smartphone market has followed an almost perfectly logistic growth,” Horace Dediu writes for Asymco. “The other notable market observation is how closely the iPhone follows the same pattern as the market.”
“If we believe that the iPhone can be modeled behaviorally then it may be possible to forecast its growth,” Dediu writes. “So we can suggest that at 90% penetration (approximately saturation) the iPhone will have 68% market share of users in the US.”
Dediu writes, “Forecasting the addressable market (US population aged older than 13) at about 266 million that implies 180 million US users of the iPhone by early 2017.”
How Dediu got his numbers and the usual excellent charts, in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: Dominance.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Readers “Fred Mertz” and “Dan K.” for the heads up.]
I love the smell of napalm in the morning!
What the heck is ‘logistic’ growth?
It is like logarithmic growth only different.
LOL!
A model for a quantity that increases quickly at first and then more slowly as the quantity approaches an upper limit. This model is used for such phenomena as the increasing use of a new technology or saturation of a market (sales).
He means exponential growth.
read the article, he tells you what it is. And no, it’s neither logarithmic nor exponential.
I only read him for the graphs.
So, Steve Jobs suggested the iPhone would take maybe 3% of the smart phone market. Steve never did want to show his hand early. And now, the talking heads will not be satisfied with anything less that 100% (OR MORE) market share and keep telling us that Samsung and Google are winning. Really! At what?
That wouldn’t be dribbling heads, would it?
In all fairness, Steve predicted 1% of ALL mobile phone market, after one year (more accurately, buy the end of 2008). They achieved 1.2% (estimates vary, though). Beyond that first year (and a half), he didn’t venture any more guesses / predictions.
Samsung and Google are winning at making people talk about android…..nothing more.
Now that’s good!!!