“Yhe US smartphone market has followed an almost perfectly logistic growth,” Horace Dediu writes for Asymco. “The other notable market observation is how closely the iPhone follows the same pattern as the market.”
“If we believe that the iPhone can be modeled behaviorally then it may be possible to forecast its growth,” Dediu writes. “So we can suggest that at 90% penetration (approximately saturation) the iPhone will have 68% market share of users in the US.”
Dediu writes, “Forecasting the addressable market (US population aged older than 13) at about 266 million that implies 180 million US users of the iPhone by early 2017.”
How Dediu got his numbers and the usual excellent charts, in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: Dominance.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Readers “Fred Mertz” and “Dan K.” for the heads up.]