“Shares of Apple (AAPL) may be a decent long-term investment for those willing to ride out recent problems but investors need to look through their loyalty to the company and rationally analyze near-term risks,” Efficient Alpha’s Joseph Hogue writes for Seeking Alpha.
“The upside potential over the next few months does not compensate for some serious downside risks to a disappointing product launch,” Hogue writes. “Investors may want to avoid the shares until better guidance is available for future revenue and growth.”
Hogue writes, “At its 2012 highs, calls were for the company to be the first to reach a market cap of $1 trillion. Still one of the biggest in the world, the company trades for just $443 billion now.”
MacDailyNews Take: Currently, Apple is the world’s most valuable publicly-traded compnay in the world at “just” $447.63 billion. For reference, Exxon Mobil is #2 at $390.27 billion or, in other words, behind by a Hewlett-Packard plus $13.5 billion.
Hogue writes, “The most likely release this year will be a revamp of the iPhone5 [sic] leaves me worried that the ultimate launch will be a blah-moment. The market is used to being wowed by Apple launches and new features. Simply rehashing the same design and hardware to get a new product on the shelves risks leaving the market cold and represents a downside to the shares.”
MacDailyNews Take: Yes, just like Apple’s iPhone 4S. (dripping sarcasm)
Read more in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: iCal’ed. People should get their facts straight and fully understand what they’re talking about before proffering investment advice.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Edward W.” for the heads up.]
The key word here is “could”. Anything “could” happen…
What is wrong with your spellchecker MDN? compnay?!
Because this Analyst says to not invest, it makes me want to invest more in Apple.
What a hater!
I think the site he is writing this on should be changed to “Seeking A Brain”.
I think nearly every one of those “contributors” on Seeking A Brain have their heads up their behinds and are just doing everything they can to get noticed by someone. They all seem to be trolling for some kind of legimitacy but AFAIK, most fall short. Especially the head doofus, Rocco.
I just ignore that site as well as anything Henry Blodget cranks out.
Philip Elmer-DeWitt’s column is the go-to place for legitimate Apple/AAPL information, IMO.
Consider the source: Seeking Alpha. The site is a collection of blogs by individual investors who have neither industry expertise, nor a deep understanding of either Apple or investing. Many write their blogs from the basement of their parent’s house, still hoping to have a date someday.
Take most investment punditry with a huge dose of salt. Seeking Alpha definitely falls in that category. Along with Minyanville.
I may not agree with much of what I read on Seeking Alpha, as the blogs constitute opinions, some more informed than others. When I see screeds like the one referenced above, without any quantitative, fundamental analysis or understanding of how Apple will increase its earnings and cash flow, I stop reading. Immediately. You should too.
Essentially, Seeking Alpha and Minyanville are glorified investor versions of The Bleacher Report.
NOTE TO MDN: Please stop quoting and linking to these assclowns. Our blood pressure will be better for it. And you will prevent these losers from getting a false sense of authority. Thanks.
Another day, another imbecile
Geez, why not just say Apple products cause cancer, global warming and serial killers while your at it?
Remember back in the day when anti Apple FUD was at least somewhat subtle?
Well Joe just lowered the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) standard. It is hard for anyone with out the ability to “Think Different” or skate to where the puck is going to understand Apple. There are so many things he can’t see:
• Apple’s iPad has and is collapsing the old PC box market into just a shadow of what it was.
• Apple’s Mac Pro will soon come to market and is also the Home Hub and environmentally ready to re-enter the European market place again.
• Apple’s many server farms are coming on line (we know of only 5)
• Parallels Access for iPad will further extend the iPad into the office killing off the need for new Microsoft Windows laptops for the road.
• HP is collapsing
• Dell is collapsing
• RIMM is collapsing
• Open Android devices will now be the hacked devices like the Windows PC were in the PC market.
• China Mobile with 67% of the market in China will sign with Apple and can use the new iPhones now.
• 85% to 95% of the young people leaving college and (maybe) entering the work place are Apple Mac and iOS device users.
I can do this for the next 20 minutes. This clueless idiot doesn’t understand Apple. Not now or tomorrow!
And don’t forget about those server farms.
WARNING! Reading this article could be one of the worst investments of your time.
How many times have folks like Pundit Hogue underestimated the impact of the next version of the iPhone? Ah, if only these people were paid based upon the accuracy of their predictions…
Similarly, television “meteorologists” would be eating out of dumpsters
The most important question that comes to mind after reading this is the HUGE omission in the MDN take of referencing past geniuses like Lara Goldman who put a full sell on Apple stock right before its biggest price growth, where is that comparison? There are so many idiots to reference.
I’m a tiny bit disappointed MDN.
There are few things I enjoy more than reading the entirely predictable MDN responses to anything critical about Apple. I’m trying to understand the reason for this website’s existence. If the only purpose is to provide a place to come and ignore the fact that everything we used to celebrate about the once great company is no longer actually happening, then- what’s the point?
So, tell me to just go away. The problem is I simply can’t resist the daily reminder of the nation’s largest collection of lemmings to be found anywhere.
Pardon, did you say something?
Okay I’m telling you to go away just like you asked. You are nothing but a skipping record regarding Apple and Tim Cook.
I’m trying to understand the reason for this Jay Morrison’s existence.
Same as cockroaches, fleas, mosquitos and horseflies, he seems to have been created to be a major irritant, without having any conceivable use to humanity at large.
I’m not going to tell you to go away, Jay, I’m going to suggest that you find a nice splintery stick, and sodomise yourself repeatedly with it.
How’s that?
So very typical. Such responses make be smile really big.
Tank you for this comment!
I like the word “lemmings” in this context.
MDN is also known as the “Apple-Balkan”.
I’m heavily invested in Apple because I bought in during the iPod era, but let’s be realistic. Apple WAS called to become a trillion dollar company in 2012 and now its market cap is a “measly” $445 billion [/s] which isn’t even half a trillion dollars. Apple is still stuck with a lower P/E ratio than sputtering Microsoft. The hedge funds are going grab on like leeches and continue to suck value out of Apple. It’s seems no matter what Apple does, Wall Street seems clearly pessimistic. A company that shouldn’t be a risk by any standard fundamentals, continues to be called a risky play.
I’m dead certain Apple is going to sell tens of millions of iPhones this holiday season and will likely break sales records if they can manufacture enough of them, but I don’t trust Wall Street giving Apple fair value. Those hedge funds can’t be trusted. Last week you could almost tell they can hold the stock within such a narrow range of movement. I find it frightening.
Apple is still opening retail stores, no layoffs, it still has a solid market cap after not releasing any products for nine months or so, at least two solid products in the pipeline despite what the pundits say. Apple looks set to explode if it were any other company. However, when it comes to Apple too many things get turned around to make Apple look like it’s performing poorly and the share price suffers.
I’m quite skeptical of Apple returning to $700 despite it having a more fundamentally solid base than its previous run to $700. I’ll continue to get my dividends either way, so I can’t complain but I’m just not convinced the hedge funds are going to let Apple fly again.
Free advice from a financial analyst is worth what you pay for it.
Well like it or not short term I’m not clear which way the shares will go depends on how good the next product launches actually are.
It would be interesting to publish a table of all these tea leaf reading pundits with their predictions and the reality that happened and a score say out of ten. Do it for the last 5 years and show exactly who got it partly right and who got it completely wrong. Then we and everyone else could see who has a clue. Requires a little work but I’m sure it would be informative. Analyse the analysts. The Dr.
I’d want to see a statistical analysis differentiating the findings of the three major groups: readers of tea leaves, inspectors of chicken entrails, and those inspired sorts who simply pull predictions out of their asses.
CLASSIC FUD. Let me count the ways:
1) “near-term risks”
2) “serious downside risks”
3) “the company trades for just…”
4) “leaves me worried”
5) “blah-moment”
6) “rehashing the same design”
7) “risks leaving the market cold”
8) “a downside to the shares”
IOW:
– No actual DATA
– Only FEAR MONGERING
– Nothing more than mental manipulation with YOU as the victim.
I.E. Joseph Hogue who writes for Seeking Alpha: Don’t forget the sunblock. Your FAIL August Effect is showing. And you’re getting BURNED.
This topic could make me increase my bet on Apple as I know too many people want AAPL cheap .
If I’m not mistaken, hedge funds are presently increasing their positions in Apple in advance of the new product announcements. If this is right, then this ‘news’ is maliciously intended to get the less informed (read less connected to the street) investor to sell off. Doing so offsets any tick up in APPL stock value triggered by the hedge funds.
Think about this. Apple’s market position for all its products is very strong. Apple has incredible profitability (as measured against any erstwhile competitor). Apple has a mountain of cash; a veritable mountain. Apple have virtually no debt (again in comparison to competitors). Apple has a track record of product success through through innovation (which no other competitor has). There is no possible news that Apple could reasonably announce that would fundamentally (i.e. based on the evaluations above) *reduce* the value of the company (notice that I did not say ‘value of the stock’). At the worst, the ‘bump’ that the street investors are trying to create for their favoured clients doesn’t happen and those investors make a little less on the new product releases.
Remember, NOTHING that the analysts say has anything to do with the fundamentals of Apple as a company or Apple products, it’s entirely about stock manipulation to the end of extracting money from either Apple or Apple shareholders who aren’t part of the Wall Street Club – that’s the only thing that they are concerned about. As proof of that, I refer back to Icahn, whose only objective is to get Apple to distribute its cash reserves, he doesn’t care a whit about anything else and even the distruction of Apple to get it wouldn’t deflect him from that objective.
This guy is worrying too much. And worry, they product, what ever it is isn’t launched yet and the two following quarters of sales have not passed yet and he is worried now? It was because of allot of idiotic traders that should not have been in Apple from the beginning that the stock went down. They had nothing invested in the company except the stock they bought. They didn’t care if Apple’s products were amazing or the history or legacy of the company. They were staring at papers with numbers and making assumptions on rumours. Such investors Apple can do without…