Juniper Research: Smartphone market to fragment in emerging markets; new players to capture 13% OS share by 2018

New findings from leading hi-tech analysts, Juniper Research, has revealed that the Smartphone OS market will see new emerging players, such as Asha, Sailfish and emerging HTML 5 based OS players begin to gain ground in niche areas. The market globally however is expected to continue to be dominated by Android and iOS.

The report argues that these new contenders will take away important niches – focusing on cost innovation and utilising local knowledge – in synergy with the next generation of consumers. This may begin the slow decline of the current global OS elite.

In terms of smartphone shipments, Apple and Samsung will continue to dominate the global market, shipping 17% more smartphones in 2018 than were shipped globally by all vendors in 2012. The new Juniper report found that Apple and Samsung’s global smartphone shipments will hit nearly 800 million by the end of 2018, compared with 677 million last year.

Juniper’s latest report, Smartphone Futures: Differentiation Strategies & Emerging Opportunities 2013-2018 forecasts sustained growth for Apple in the emerging markets over the forecast period, with Apple expected to announce a diversification in its product portfolio shortly. It notes that this brings Apple closer to the Samsung model of catering to diverse set of markets utilising different models which will maintain the current global dichotomy.

The new report noted that significant growth is expected across emerging markets such as the Indian Subcontinent and China. These areas will see particular growth in the Ultra-Economy and Economy sectors, with heavily localised handsets. Slower growth is forecast for the Ultra-Premium and Premium smartphone sectors, but only if they can offer clear differentiation within a crowded market.

Other Key Findings Include:
• There will continue to be a lack of short and medium term diversity within the OS market.
• The Average Selling Price of a smartphone will fall as new lower income demographics are exploited.

The complimentary ‘Smartphones: Ultra-Premium to Ultra-Economy’ whitepaper is available to download from the Juniper website together with further details of the full report here.

Source: Juniper Research Ltd.

MacDailyNews Take: Predicting 5 years out in a fast-moving market like this, not to mention with major patent litigation cases yet to be resolved, is a fool’s errand. For all anybody knows, within half a decade, Android smartphone sales could collapse from the weight of its own fragmentation and patent infringement issues.

1 Comment

  1. As long as Android is available there will be plenty of cheap smartphone options that will appeal to emerging markets. As each of those markets mature then customers will upgrade to better quality units. We have seen this happening already in countries like China and India where Apple are making significant gains in a typically hard market.
    If the rend continues, Apple will hold the share in profit terms and will build long-term customer loyalty in places they never have been able to penetrate.
    The key example is Japan. Who would have though 5 years ago that Apple would be the largest smartphone maker in Japan. To succeed in such a competitive market with many established homegrown companies is amazing.

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