According to a new forecast from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Tablet Tracker, tablet shipments are expected to grow 58.7% year-over-year in 2013 reaching 229.3 million units, up from 144.5 million units last year. IDC now predicts tablet shipments will exceed those of portable PCs this year, as the slumping PC market is expected to see negative growth for the second consecutive year. In addition, IDC expects tablet shipments to outpace the entire PC market (portables and desktops combined) by 2015. (A press release summarizing IDC’s latest PC market forecast can be found here.)
“What started as a sign of tough economic times has quickly shifted to a change in the global computing paradigm with mobile being the primary benefactor,” said Ryan Reith, Program Manager for IDC’s Mobility Trackers, in a statement. “Tablets surpassing portables in 2013, and total PCs in 2015, marks a significant change in consumer attitudes about compute devices and the applications and ecosystems that power them. IDC continues to believe that PCs will have an important role in this new era of computing, especially among business users. But for many consumers, a tablet is a simple and elegant solution for core use cases that were previously addressed by the PC.”
While Apple has been at the forefront of the tablet revolution, the current market expansion has been increasingly fueled by low-cost Android devices. In 2013, the worldwide average selling price (ASP) for tablets is expected to decline -10.8% to $381. In comparison, the ASP of a PC in 2013 is nearly double that at $635. IDC expects tablet prices to decline further, which will allow vendors to deliver a viable computing experience into the hands of many more people at price points the PC industry has strived to meet for years.
“Apple’s success in the education market has proven that tablets can be used as more than just a content consumption or gaming device,” said Jitesh Ubrani, Research Analyst for the Worldwide Quarterly Tablet Tracker, in a statement. “These devices are learning companions, and as tablet prices continue to drop, the dream of having a PC for every child gets replaced with the reality that we can actually provide a tablet for every child.”
In addition to lower prices, another major shift in the tablet market has occurred around screen sizes. Apple’s first generation iPad, which included a 9.7-inch display, was perceived by many as the sweet spot for tablets. That is, until 7-inch Android-based tablets began to gain traction in the market. Apple responded with the iPad mini in the fourth quarter of 2012, and in the space of two quarters the sub-8-inch category exploded to overtake the larger-sized segment in terms of total shipments.
Worldwide Tablet Market Share by Screen Size Band, 2011 – 2017
Source: IDC Worldwide Tablet Tracker, May 28, 2013. * Forecast Data. Table Notes: Shipments include shipments to distribution channels or end users. OEM sales are counted under the vendor/brand under which they are sold. IDC considers all LCD-based slate devices with screens between 7 and 16 inches as tablets, regardless of whether or not they include a removable keyboard (such as the Surface RT). Convertible devices with non-removable keyboards (such as Lenovo’s Yoga) are not counted as Tablets.
Source: International Data Corporation (IDC)
MacDailyNews Take:
When we were an agrarian nation, all cars were trucks, because that’s what you needed on the farm. But as vehicles started to be used in the urban centers, cars got more popular. Innovations like automatic transmission and power steering and things that you didn’t care about in a truck as much started to become paramount in cars… PCs are going to be like trucks. They’re still going to be around, they’re still going to have a lot of value, but they’re going to be used by one out of X people. – Steve Jobs, June 1, 2010
I see cannibalization as a huge opportunity for us. Our core philosophy is to never fear cannibalization. If we don’t do it, someone else will. We know that iPhone has cannibalized some of our iPod business. That doesn’t worry us. We know that iPad will cannibalize some Macs. But that’s not a concern.
On iPad in particular, we have the mother of all opportunities because the Windows market is much, much larger than the Mac market. It is clear that it is already cannibalizing some. I still believe the tablet market will be larger than the PC market at some point. You can see by the growth in tablets and pressure on PCs that those lines are beginning to converge.
If somebody buys an iPad mini or an iPad, if it’s their first Apple product, a percentage of these people wind up buying another type of Apple product. If you remember what we had termed the halo effect for the iPod with the Mac, we’re very confident that will happen with the iPad as well. – Tim Cook, January 23, 2013
I think the iPad is an incredible device, game changing even. I do many things on it that would be unimaginable a few years ago – reading books would a primary use I make of it. I read more books now than I ever did before mainly because I don’t have to carry a stack of them around – all the weight of a library of books condensed into the weight of an iPad. And don’t underestimate the convenience factor as well – synching books to the iPad from iTunes is as simple as 123 and I have a huge library of books ranging from technical to scientific to work related to ordinary novels. The iPad has widened my reading horizons by a factor of ten, that is for sure.
I also get a lot done on my iPad like writing e-mails, writing the occasional document that does not need much formatting, doing the occasional spreadsheet that isn’t too complex, in fact most of my day to day activities can be accomplished on an iPad.
But at the end of the day nothing touches the Mac when you want to be truly productive, especially when it comes to manipulating files and organising your work in nested folders rather than the one dimensional folders that iCloud allows.
To me, the biggest shortcoming of an iPad is the absence of an integrated file system that allows you to reply to mails and select files to send as attachments. I don’t understand why in this day and age Apple still cripples the functionality of the iPad by refusing to allow file attachments when replying to e-mails. But other than that I spend almost half my day huddled with my iPad. I couldn’t do without it.
“To me, the biggest shortcoming of an iPad is the absence of an integrated file system that allows you to reply to mails and select files to send as attachments. I don’t understand why in this day and age Apple still cripples the functionality of the iPad by refusing to allow file attachments when replying to e-mails.”
But it does allow attachments. Simple as pie. tape twice where you want the attachment and use the contextual menu to pick your document.
I use it all the time.
Only if you limit your attachments to photos. I’m talking about attaching document files, which you still can’t do at the moment.
I think that red line is going to keep trending down for some time. 😎
I’ll bet the iPod touch is NOT being counted as a < 8" tablet.
I’ll bet the iPhone isn’t counted as a tablet either.
Tablets and smartphones are the future.
In other news, worldwide shipments of half-liter bottles of fizzy sugar water exceed those of mammoth 2-liter bottles.
Who would believe that the less expensive product would sell more? /s
No, that is wrong.
In 5 years no one will need a tablet any more. Maybe a big screen at the work place but not a tablet.