Tero Kuittinen: iPhone sales projections now so low it’s ridiculous

“If iPhone sales volumes fall as low as some Wall Street analysts now expect during the spring quarter, the decline would actually be worse than the biggest disasters in mobile phone history, including Motorola’s post-RAZR crash in 2007 and Nokia’s collapse in 2012,” Tero Kuittinen writes for BGR. “Can it really be this bad or are analysts simply locked in a race to outpace the possible upcoming share price plunge?”

“As Apple’s share price has continued drifting lower, major brokerages have been moving spring-quarter iPhone volume estimates to as low as 26 million units,” Kuittinen writes. “The overall spring consensus is still above 30 million, but it includes old estimates and is out of date at this point.”

Kuittinen writes, “The 26 million unit volume would mean a decline of 45% between the December and June quarters. A year ago, Apple’s iPhone volume declined from 37 million in the Christmas quarter to 26 million in the June quarter of 2012. That 30% decline was partly a result of how slight an upgrade the iPhone 4S represented compared to the iPhone 4. Now Wall Street has started anticipating zero volume growth between the June quarters of 2012 and 2013… while global smartphone shipment volume soars by more than 30%.”

Read more in the full article here.

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21 Comments

      1. that’s not growth for apple
        to grow revenues and profits they have to sell iphones to people that don’t have smartphones or current BB/Android/WinMo users.

        1. Maybe Apple isn’t looking for growth at all. The company may be perfectly happy selling to only a small percentage of the global population. It would be a disaster for recent investors, but Apple could easily remain profitable as long as they came out with new products from time to time. Apple may choose not to play Wall Street’s market share game and just let the company’s share price fall to cash value. It probably wouldn’t matter to anyone in the company. I think investors should just give up expecting anything from Apple from a financial standpoint. Apple can’t possibly beat Wall Street if growth is the only means for Apple to gain in share value.

    1. Yes. Some people in the US still don’t have smart phones, some people have Androids or Blackberries or Windows phones but would switch to iPhone given the opportunity, some people even used to own an iPhone until it broke or was stolen.

      Also, there’s iPhone owners who upgrade regularly.

      Then there’s that whole non-US thing … what was it called? Oh, yeah, the rest of the fucking planet. I think there’s at least a few people who live there and can make use of a mobile voice and Internet communication device, and they probably got some weird type of monetary or currency system they could use to exchange for such devices.

    2. Yes. I don’t have an iPhone (or any cell for that matter.) It’s not the phone that’s the problem: Until I get reliable service/signal strength in my area, I won’t buy one.

  1. I think the iPhone is nearing market saturation. However, people where lining up to get the iPhone on T-Mobile April 12 which is safe to say the iPhone still commands great interest.

    Further analyzing, I still have a 4S and very happy about it. I am looking to get a 5 soon but with talk about a 5S or even 6, I’m holding on a little longer.

    Further, many people sell their iPhones because there is a strong market for used iPhones.

    The quality of the iPhone is excellent in my opinion. I wouldn’t need to be replacing my phone at least once a year like other phones. So there is good and bad with sales volumes and I doubt it should matter to Apple but would matter to Walll Street quick greed analysts.

    1. No need for name calling. I think Tero is making a point that WS most certainly grossly underestimates iPhone sales given among all indicators of strong new markets.

  2. This is exactly why I had to sell my meager amount of shares. So I can wait until these Dick-heads are done with their relentless bashing in their quest to bring Apple shares down as far as they can. Then I’ll buy back in. Should have done that at $600 and I could be buying back in now. But who knew the anal-ists would just keep up the negative reports and lies all the way to below $400. I don’t agree with any of their Apple doom and gloom predictions but they had my money by the short hairs because everyone ELSE believed them and made the stock dive. Butt wipes.

  3. Sales can also decline ahead of the anticipated introduction of a new model; or due to seasonal buying patterns; or from unrealistic/ deceptive analysis or news stories. I think MDN has made this last reason unmistakably clear, from its numerous postings of stories emanating from Wall Street.

  4. Just two thoughts here, which is two more than Wall Street ever has. 🙁

    1) Market share is not all that wall street seems to think it is. Especially with technology and a little thing I like to call PROFIT!

    2) Forever expanding sales. No one wants to talk sales (PROFIT) but rather its the change in sales. If you are not selling more today than you were yesterday, YOU ARE FAILING!!
    If you are talking grocery store, then yeah, growth is a very good thing (small profit, and people only eat so much). But with technology and especially stuff that lasts 3-5 years, this growth is critical junk is just like market share.

    So, if an anal….. yet uses the words market share or growth (in relation to Apple) as critical,,,, then you know he has absolutely NO idea what he is talking about..

    JAT>

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