Apple’s calendar chaos trade of 2013

“Apple’s (AAPL) shifting product release cycle has created a high degree of investor uncertainty within the quarterly biased tradition of Wall Street,” Jason Schwarz writes via Seeking Alpha. “For a company that attracts more product release hype than any other in the history of planet earth, this shifting product release calendar has caused investors and analysts to be mislead regarding the true state of Apple’s financial health.”

“It’s a phenomenon unique to Apple because no other company elicits the scope of product release volatility like Apple does,” Schwarz writes. “Especially in the most recent upgrade cycle to iPhone 5 in which Apple sold 47.8 million units in the holiday quarter, Apple has demonstrated a one-of-a-kind ability to generate product release hype that remains the envy of all its competition.”

Schwarz writes, “Unfortunately for investors, this recent round of hype has not translated into stock returns. The shifting of the product release calendar and its uncertain effect on year over year quarterly earnings analysis has trumped all other stock moving variables. It’s become more important than a p/e ratio. It’s more important than analyst upgrades or downgrades. It’s more important than Verizon’s iPhone sales number. It’s more important than being in tune with the hedge fund action that characterized all of those slingshot moves over the past three years. The hot new trade of 2013 is in sync with Apple’s year over year calendar shifts. We like to call it calendar chaos.”

Schwarz’s disclosure states, “I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in AAPL over the next 72 hours.”

Much more in the full article here.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Arline M.” for the heads up.]


    1. Jason Schwarz’ long Apple track record speaks for itself grasshopper.

      What’s amazing is that you lecture everyone here day in and day out and brag about your few hundred share timely cash out, flout your infantile investment and “world according to me” crap and expect everyone to heed your wisdom, and yet have the audacity to call everyone here amateurs for quoting and relating to a very factual and elaborately explained commentary from a well respected Apple analyst…

      You are really a conceited brat, deserving of all the resentful sentiment I see you regularly receive here. pretty thick skinned and transparent too.

      1. Respected by you because he says what you want to hear. A few hundred shares? I never mentioned any number of shares. I haven’t owned shares of AAPL in more than 2 years. I sold my AAPL calls. Sold them in September 2012 with AAPL at $700. Sat on the sidelines for three weeks, then started buying AAPL puts. Have ridden AAPL all the way down since October 2012. Have made even more money as AAPL went down than I did as it went up. And I made a bunch as it went up! Sounds like you’re way underwater in AAPL. Don’t take it out on everyone else because you fucked up.

        1. And ther you have it: you are a PARASITE, feeding on options, borrowing paid shares, with no pot to oiss in and a big mouth, that couldn’ t back you upif it had a gear box to backup with….some apple investor you are, ha.

          Shwartz is well respected by anyone who has ever read anything he’s ever published about Apple and certainly by most journalists, but your tiny infantile, arrogant stereotypical brain brands anything ‘also’ published by Seeking Alpha as “amateurs” while at the same time grandios about your pathetic self…

          You are a pathetic little grasspohhi g invalid with no freinds or company that listens. Go look for some freind before you come he and insult the human intelligence of everyone. Jerk.

        2. Every which way, but true.
          awwww, and now you’re making up stories about how astute an investor you are.
          It is obvious to anyone who looks at your weasel words, that you have never, never played AAPL, in any fashion.
          You are a daydreamer in Cuckooland.

  1. Oh, so when Apple botches product introductions (2012 iPad, iMacs) or simply doesn’t update products at all (iWork ’09, displays, Mac Pro, etc) then it’s called “shifting the product release cycle”?

    I call it sitting on your ass doing nothing because you think you’re far enough ahead of the competition that you think its okay to take an extended break.

    The Tim Cook apologists need to stop. Apple needs decisive leadership that can continue to roll out innovations — even small innovations, if that’s all there is to be had.

    Nobody has been able to give a single reason why Cook is a good leader other than the worn-out “Steve liked him” excuse. “Decisive” or “genius” he is not.

    1. IPad, iPad mini, iPhone 5, Mountain Lion, Apple TV, iTunes, IOS, iCloud, Siri, Maps, Macbooks, iMac… Rather a lot for a company which sits on its hands… …not to mention what is in the product cycle that none of us know about.

      As for iWork, the functionality is good and the interface is nice and clean: less is more in this case. Sensible enhancements every few years is a reasonable policy.

  2. Can they focus on the flagging sells of other brands? Maybe cut deep into others as to why they make so little profits on huge markets? Then why not punish those with large market share and little to no profit and saddled with debt! Surely, that has more impact than a company making money with little to no debt and bring to market tech that other try to duplicate. I reaally do not understand this slanting of Apple with the others getting a pass for really bad management. Then again, what better why of getting your name banner around the Internet and new cycles.

    1. What would be the point of attacking companies with little profits? Those companies have nothing for the hedge funds to bleed for any length of time. What other company could hedge funds bleed for six months besides Apple and not run completely out of blood? Companies like Netflix, LinkedIn, or Intuitive Surgical are basically P/E inflated stocks with nothing much in terms of real money. The hedge funds can’t attack the Android platform because it’s just made up of lots small companies barely eking by. Samsung is on the KOSDAQ so the American hedge funds can’t do much to it. They could probably do it to Exxon, but that’s pretty risky to be messing around with an oil company.

    2. “Then again, what better why of getting your name banner around the Internet and new cycles.”

      Two words: Validation hits.

      Much easier to accomplish when compared to factual in-depth reporting that is fair and takes into account the full picture.

  3. Want a good laugh. Microsoft beat all estimates and is on the rise despite Windows 8 and the Surface RT being a flop. Hey, one of the worst desktop PC recessions and record and Microsoft comes out smelling like a rose. No post-PC era crying at Microsoft.

    1. yeah, but Q413 is going to be a real @#$%^& given the latest PC sales numbers. MicroShaft is just trailing off the WEight push. Once OEMs cut productions and average-Joe-consumer picks up on the sh*tstorm that is WEight, I predict things will turn nasty quickly. You can iCal that.

  4. Why is all this insane?

    Simple: AAPL is trading at about 2.5 times the CASH Apple, Inc. has on hand. Name me one, just one, corporation that does more than $1 billion a year in revenue that is publicly traded that is trading at less than 3 times the cash they have on hand!


    Thought so.

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