How many iPhones did Apple sell in fiscal Q213?

“iPhone sales were the big surprise this time last year,” Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune.

“When Apple reported last April that it sold 35.1 million iPhones in its second fiscal quarter — up 88% from the year before and 15% above Wall Street’s consensus, the stock leaped nearly $42 (7.4%) in after-hours trading,” P.E.D. reports. “Nobody’s expecting that to happen this year.”

P.E.D. reports, “We’ve polled the usual suspects and have heard so far from 48 analysts — 30 Wall Street professionals and 18 amateurs. Although 10 of the 48 believe Q2 iPhone sales this year will fall short of Q2 2012, the consensus is that Apple will beat last year’s number, but not by much. The pros, on average, are looking for unit sales up 4% year over year; the indies for 8%. The median estimate — 37 million — would represent 5.5% growth.”

Read more and see the full list of analysts’ estimates in the full article here.

8 Comments

    1. I’ve been a member of what is now the Braeburn group for years. The amateurs there have consistently beaten the pros and several have been remarkably accurate on earnings and sales projections. Recently they have missed on the bullish side, but I’ll still take their numbers over those of people like Kass and Huberty.

      1. Agree. I don’t think the amateurs’ projections were even that far off if you imagine corrections for unexpected supply problems. A number of the “pros”, however, seem to rely on the Magic 8-Ball.

  1. Perhaps people were buying iPad minis and iMacs last quarter. Apple isn’t a one trick pony like so many other tech companies. Us old school Apple owners and investors call that the “Halo Effect”.

    I see they are not counting Apple’s giant server farms yet. As the server farms start to be identified and counted, will the talking heads understand that their numbers are growing and as important as the Apple Store count was. You need them to store personal data on and stream media and data from. How many server farms does Samsung have? ZERO!

    1. The question is, “How much money does Apple make from its server farms?”

      Other than those directly supporting the iTunes and App stores the answer is ZERO. Those that support iCloud just cost Apple money.

      It would not surprise me if the *net* income across all of Apple’s server farms (including those that support iTunes and the App store) is virtually zero. That will change with time, just like iTunes lost money its first year, barely more than broke even for a few year and is now making real money.

      It’s too early to consider the server farms as a significant income source. And if you’re thinking of them as large capital assets on the books, Wall Street barely cares about that — if at all.

    2. Apple may not technically be a one-trick pony, but Wall Street considers Apple a one-trick pony due to the fact that 70% of its revenue is based on iPhone sales. Nothing else really comes into play in Apple’s valuations except iPhones. Even if other product sales are up, when iPhones sales lag so does Apple’s share price. Halo effect does not enter into Apple’s share price at all. That’s only good for Apple’s internal wealth and cash build-up. Most of Apple’s peripheral business is completely ignored by Wall Street when it comes to the share price. All anyone wants to know about is how many iPhones has Apple sold and that says it all.

      Samsung doesn’t need server farms because it’s a conglomerate and they have things like their ship-building division, insurance division and their chip-building division, etc. I’m not sure how money flows between divisions but overall Samsung is pretty well-rounded as far as corporations go. When you look at Samsung on the KOSDAQ you can see all the various businesses that Samsung is into by multiple stock listings. With Apple there’s just AAPL.

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