“Calling a top in a stock, sector, or market is as hard as guessing at a bottom. Has Apple hit bottom yet? No one knows,” Bill Gunderson writes for MarketWatch.
“I have continually heard that it has all the way down from $705 to its current $430 level. Those that tried to guess at the bottom have been wrong all the way down. I bought Apple at $368, sold it at $637 and have been calling it ‘dead money’ ever since. I also stuck my neck out on CNBC with the same opinion. My opinion has not changed,” Gunderson writes. “Apple will eventually do a Netflix, however. That is, it will find a bottom, go sideways for a while, shake out angry investors, and eventually break out and start a new uptrend.”
Gunderson writes, “Just as Apple will eventually do a Netflix, the market will eventually do an Apple. Good stocks like Apple do not go down forever, and markets do not go up forever. Just as Apple rolled over, so will the market. The problem is nobody knows when.”
Read more in the full article here.
Related article:
Apple is dead money for now – February 4, 2013
Don’t count on it–the stock is way down past any rationale-commen sense, and headed lower due to momentum and an abundance of short positions !
An abundance of short positions does not make a stock go down further. It’s a springboard for a rise if and when those shorts buy back the stock they’ve shorted.
How dare you speak the truth around here! Don’t you know that everything associated with Apple is a conspiracy or a plot? The whole world is against Apple and its investors.
Actually, GM, I would say that the major players in the financial markets are able to parlay their superior market access and technical trading advantages to squeeze money from individual investors. But life isn’t fair, so it is a waste of time to bitch about it. As an individual investor I just try to do the best that I can and avoid the more obvious money-losing emotional traps and tendencies. Sometimes I am successful, other times I fail.
That’s the way you should approach investing in the stock market. Wall Street is no more against Apple than it is against Google, Ford, IBM etc.. It’s just odd how so many on this site think that the whole world is against Apple. It’s not. They weren’t complaining last summer when they were making boatloads of money on AAPL. But they’re sure whining and bitching now. Funny how bad investing decisions, like not taking your profit last September, makes everyone on Wall Street look like a crook. Suddenly! Why weren’t they crooks last September? I’m going to guess that you’re not a buy and hold forever investor. You don’t sound like someone who would pass up taking huge gains in an investment. Too many here confuse loving Apple products and the inability to take profit in AAPL when warranted. There’s not much you can do to fix that.
“Shake off angry investors.” I believe this is the main operation in the last week. There is not one valid reason than sentiment that apple stock has suffered as apple has flurished. The google balloon is $400 more per share? Ready to pop.
Main reason for drop in last 3-4 months, not week.
“Shake off angry investors.”
Not quite right. They will shake off angry speculators. Investors take a longer term view.
The Market = The glorifying of our decoupled reasoning from our heart = Who gives the greatness of human race a damn (we are just like cockroaches, we like to become cockroaches)
Brilliant.
After the sun sets, it usually rises again and after a stock fall, it usually rises again.
I should be a writer for MarketWatch.
No you could be an analyst!
What a stupid headline “Gunderson: Apple’s stock price will not go down forever, eventually it will break out”
That must have taken him all of two seconds to think up. lol
Why should Apple go back up unless the hedge funds change their minds? If a stock is no longer tied to its fundamentals, then anything goes. If Wall Street is only interested in market leaders in terms of having the highest market share, how can Apple do anything in the smartphone industry to change its own position. Apple refuses to go after market share (it makes sense to me that they don’t) it will certainly kill shareholders dreams of having a high share price.
Isn’t it conceivable that Apple will never go up higher than it is now if Wall Street considers Apple a poor investment as a company that has no future. Apple is one of the few profitable companies that is seen to have no future in any area. There definitely seems to be a universal opinion that Apple’s profitable smartphone days are numbered. Whether that’s part of the manipulation equation I don’t know. Maybe Apple reaching $700 was just a once-in-a-lifetime fluke. All I know is that Apple has too much uncertainty built into its DNA but I’m not exactly sure why. All futures are uncertain but Apple seems to have a definite uncertainty about it based on it’s ever-falling P/E.
I would think that only a new product category might change Apple’s outlook, but it won’t last because the product will be copied very quickly by Samsung or any other company. Apple would best be served by looking someplace outside of hardware or shareholders will never get what they feel is their due reward of a high share price.
Most of you think Apple’s P/E is too low, but why? Just a gut feeling? But, it can’t be that low or investors would be interested in buying it, but they’re not. How low will it go, I say it could easily go lower because I don’t see a anything to stop it from dropping. I’ve heard too many times people saying that Apple has reached a bottom and yet it drops lower. I can just assume that the bottom can certainly be further down, well below $400 based on what I’ve seen so far. If Apple is not supported by fundamentals, then nothing concrete supports Apple from dropping further.
Increase the dividend and split the stock. End of problem.
If fundamentals from investors perspectives aint raking in large profits (even much larger than the compettion) and the consumers getting HQ-products we don’t know what is. When AAPL started it downhill slope in sep there were nothing to show for it, it just started and from then on it was just a matter of psychology, herd mentality and old stenching bias against apple.
The problem with your comments is that you are assuming that the market will always ‘feel’ the way it does now. Investors are betting that Apple will continue to grow. That is the fundamental And even if it doesn’t grow as fast, it is a safer place to invest (not speculate). If we are right, and the market doesn’t let it go up, it will be earning 15%, or 20% or …….
The Manipulator: Apple’s stock price will not go down forever until negative numbers break out of Wall Street. When that happens, expect stock to drop forever.
If you want to make money and keep what you already have, then stay away from Wall Street. …
Really hope Apple hangs onto its money. It’s what Steve thought was best, and he was thinking about the long-term survivability of the company. Shareholders do not deserve higher dividends or any at all. That money happened due to the inventions from iPod to iPad and you don’t see new markets built like that often, and for most companies those never happen. Steve was against a stock split; don’t do it. Make products you want to use. Stick to what’s made the company great for the last fifteen years and protect your inventions through the courts as much as possible. F the analysts. Tim Cook is not an inspirational speaker, find somebody else to do the keynotes. It’s not that hard, hire an actor! Who cares, there are no rules except those Apple creates for itself. 🙂
You can’t look at what “Steve” did and think it will continue to work. Apple is a Company and in an industry where change is a constant. Apple doesn’t need all of that cash, and frankly that cash sitting there scares investors. Look at what HP did with Autonomy. IF a company has too look outside itself for growth of substantial Intellectual Property, then it tends to come with big substantial risk of failure.
Apple signing up with a big media content company, now that would make a lot of sense.
“Stick to the knitting!”
I realize that Apple’s always been more than just Steve, but to me that boatload of greenbacks is Steve’s gift to Apple. His legacy along with the innovation. Does and/or should Apple give a sh*t about the stock? No, IMHO. I profited hugely from the stock but I didn’t invest in Apple for that purpose only. It was a belief in what he/they were doing. If Apple doesn’t use that money to make amazing products then Apple won’t have a future. The way to totally waste his legacy is to give away that money. I’m not a market expert but I can’t stop wondering what analysts or hedge fund managers have to do with the iPad I use everyday. They fought against giving Apple a break for years and then now they are people anyone should be concerned about? F them and the Windows surface iPad knock-offs they rode in on. 🙂
This morning NBC news retold the the IDC fairy tale that android would have half the market for tablets.
The difference between Apple and Netflix is that Netflix lacked the resources to stop or reverse the decimation of their investors. Apple has chosen to sacrifice their investors by denying them the protection from the resources they invested in and turned to the investor and stated “be patient”. Really! “Be patient” until when asked the drowning swimmers (investors).
How many times are you going to drown that poor swimmer? You should’ve sold in September. You finally admitted as much. I’m sure that if you had it to do over again you would sell in September. That wasn’t the fault of Wall Street. That wasn’t the fault of Apple. That’s on you. We’re sorry you still have to work and can’t retire. Next time do better. And throw that drowning swimmer a lifeline.
Why does everyone on here think the only answer to the stock problem is that it is being manipulated? This may have been true in the past, but I don’t believe it is now.
Lets be honest, Apple is no longer in an innovation phase. They have moved to a (mostly) maintenance phase of their business. Their quality control is also suffering. The days of them introducing several ground breaking products and/or services a year are gone. I am not saying they are gonna die or anything, they have built incredible momentum and will be very profitable for years to come. But the reality is that things have changed.
Agreed. And look. By it’s very nature the stock market is manipulatable as it is based on a human player market. And the massive growth that Apple saw in the past, is a thing of the past. And good. I don’t need or want and Apple that is 5 times it’s current size.
Good stocks like Apple do not go down forever, and markets do not go up forever. Just as Apple rolled over, so will the market.
Two observations:
1) DUH!
2) Why is it so hard to get a tech analyst to say the OBVIOUS?
In any case, thank you Mr. Gunderson for not being yet-another bogus ‘Apple Bear’. It’s good to know that being stupid is once again going out of style. *snark* 😉