“Apple this Wednesday is expected to report record iPhone and iPad sales from the 2012 holiday season,” Neil Hughes reports for AppleInsider.
“This Wednesday’s earnings conference call has already been declared Apple’s most important in a decade,” Hughes reports. “The report arrives as AAPL stock has taken a significant hit in recent months, dipping below the $500 threshold.”
Hughes reports, “The timing of Apple’s selloff is particularly interesting, as the company just completed a holiday quarter that was likely the strongest in its history. Consensus calls for Apple to report $54.58 billion in revenue, which would be up from its previous record of $46.33 billion set in the holiday 2011 period… Particular attention will also be paid to Apple’s guidance for the March quarter. Any potential decreases in demand are expected to be seen in the company’s second quarter of fiscal 2013, which is currently underway.”
Read more, including the analysts’ consensus estimates for Apple Inc. and Apple product unit sales, in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Note: Today is Martin Luther King Day in the U.S. and the markets are closed. As usual on such trading holidays, we will have limited posting today.
The stock will surge to at least $550 in after hours trading on Wednesday after the record breaking (yet again) results are released. Now that the options fix of 1/19 is over with, Wall Street will want to start pumping the stock up again for a while.
It may be up to $550 in Pre-Market trading, but I figure it will close on Thursday at $530. A 6% bump is about the best I would expect for the stock price.
Not a chance. Apple stock is not like Google or Priceline’s. Even if Apple has a great quarter, the share price will not move very much. It never usually does (at least not up). Apple’s P/E is going to be around 10 pretty soon. Wall Street is just bleeding this stock to death with their impossible expectations.
Imagine all those poor chumps who purchased Apple at around $600 or $650 hoping to turn a quick profit because the analysts said the drop was just some temporary bump or was merely the pull-back of a tremendous slingshot. Both rubber bands broke on the pull-back. I personally think that shareholders will be lucky if the stock goes up at all. Wall Street is definitely trying to break Apple for reasons unknown. Possibly to force the company to operate to their own liking.
I bought most of my shares in early 2004, so I can’t complain, but I still think something foul is going on when comparing Apple to other tech companies of various eras that were given much higher P/Es.
isn’t it interesting that the same analysts tracking AAPL on a LATTE curve sell as the average BUN approaches SAMN, even as BACN increases quarter by quarter with respect to TOST.
That is interesting. 🙂
When I told her I liked her BUNs, she threw her LATTE at me and yelled, “You SAMN fool, if you would quit eating eggs, BACN and TOST every day for breakfast, you wouldn’t be such a fat fsck.” So now I buy an APPL a day and feel much better…
Well here we go. Q1 should have good to very good numbers. Selling a lot of product is fantastic but that’s yesterday’s news now. What really matters is guidance for Q2. I’m in but lightly. A lot of risk here. If guidances is good the stock will rise but not as much as we would like. If guidance is conservative to poor, look out below because it will tank. This has nothing to do with “manipulation”. Apple’s earnings call and in particular guidance, has nothing to do with manipulation. This is all about facts and figures. Good luck to all.
Apple guidance is ALWAYS conservative.
They don’t give a toss what the market does or thinks. They will continue making great products and let the share price look after itself. That’s what they always say whether we like it or not. On the one hand I hate that, on the other hand……no one else is standing up to corrupt Wall Street.
No, Apple’s guidance is not always conservative.
Since you put “manipulation” in quotes, I’m going to assume you’re willing to look at that definition. In my view, as I’ve expressed here before, analysts announce their expectations and then Apple announces the reality; with Apple getting punished if reality is below what analysts expected. That to me works as “manipulation” since the cause and effect is essentially totally outside of Apple’s control. If I were Tim Cook, I would set aside considerations of stock price since they are not something I can control, and would instead focus on dividend payout as the way to increase shareholder value.
So is it manipulation when Apple beats the streets expectations? Why not? Is Apple manipulating things when they give guidance so conservatively that everyone knows that they can beat it? Isn’t that manipulation? I think the people who can’t make money in the stock market will always claim manipulation. Those are the same people who have lost so much money since the end of September. They just didn’t have enough sense to sell at the top. It’s always easier to blame someone else when you fail I guess.
I guess I didn’t state clearly how broadly I think “manipulation” can be interpreted. I did not assert intentionality on the part of analysts in over-predicting what Apple would produce top- and bottom-line. I do note, however, that the number of times Apple has exceeded their guidance is nearly 100%; as opposed to the number of times Apple has not exceeded the analysts’ expectations. I’ve never actually said I believe analysts are manipulating the stock for their own gain or the gain of their clients. However, many people call for the head of the CEO when analysts’ expectations aren’t met, rather than calling for the head of the analysts. That shift in blame is a form of manipulation. As to your question of whether or not Apple is manipulating when they give conservative guidance I would say “no” — throughout Apple’s modern history leadership has stated over and over again that they don’t pay attention to the stock price. I believe them, having been there and been a part of the conversations among those with fiduciary responsibilities. I do believe that the guidance given is the best judgement at the time of how component prices and the various costs associated with development, manufacturing, distribution and advertising are going to play out. Apple’s leadership has taken gambles that have paid off better than expected, and they continue to take gambles that may or may not play out as well. Awareness of those gambles is solely theirs to factor into guidance.
Over the long haul, Apple has been closer to with their guidance than the analysts have been with their expectations. Until there are consequences felt by the analysts for being wrong more than they are right, I do think they can participate in manipulation of the stock price through the expectations they publish. I just haven’t said that I personally think they are doing that.
And I can’t tell if you were including me in your “easier to blame someone else when you fail…” statement. I have not failed in any respect you raise, as I have not sold any AAPL in over a year, and have been long since 1984.
The stock is still up 600% from when I bought in 6 years ago so any increase will be gravy. An average of 100% gain per year (from the original buy) isn’t bad for a large cap stock. The cash situation and zero debt also is reassuring.
For the long term holder the ups and downs of the last 3 months is not an issue provided I still feel Apple are doing well. At this point Apple still dominate in profit on 4 product types (iPod, Mac, iPhone and iPad) and are gradually wearing down the competitors in the PC and Phone arenas.
AAPL could see a bounce – no where near $50, though – during the announcement of record quarter but collapse back, maybe below Friday’s close, when Tim starts talking about next quarter. Expectations are low but words from the hapless CEO will disappoint further.
I read your comments and feel depressed
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a significant drop. Until they announce a new segment-defining product, stock value will be uncoupled from company performance, and all the money in the bank won’t change that. Because Apple has been so big, it’s on everyone’s radar, and that makes it a)emotional and b) manipulatable. That has a lot of solid, mature, long-term investors looking elsewhere until it stabilizes or until Apple redefines the game again. Since no one can imagine how that might realistically happen (as evidenced by all the goofy analyst predictions and the comments on boards like this one), Apple stock remains in toxic limbo (and if you have another phrase that explains almost 30% fall in stock price of the most successful company in the world in 5 months with no scandal or change in fundamentals, I’d like to hear it).
Can’t say if you are right, but you are well spoken.
Apple has been uncoupled from revenue gains for at least a few years. The case of the incredibly shrinking P/E which is one of the most puzzling things I have yet to figure out. What makes Apple so different? Especially with all that cash money in the bank. Apple could start a few more companies with $130 billion in the bank and yet the stock is worth less to shareholders every day. Unbelievable. How can a company be so successful for itself and not its shareholders as a matter of course?
Consensus calls for Apple to report $54.58 billion in revenue, which would be up from its previous record of $46.33 billion set in the holiday 2011 period…
Therefore, illogic dictates that AAPL will drop to $450.
BWAHAHAHA! Our wonderful era of BizTards and TechTards. Apple has some face slapping to do this Wednesday. Bless you Apple! 😀
…illogic dictates that AAPL will drop to $450.
And it did!
2013-01-24: AAPL: 450.50: -63.51 (-12.35%)
So what does it mean when a person is able to predict the INSANE behavior of a gang of dimwits?
I am a system analyst. But this is not the kind of system I want to understand or predict, thank you. 😯
Why is it closes on Martin Luther King Day but opened half the day on Chriatmas…