Analysts’ iPhone unit sales estimates for Christmas quarter range from 43 million to 63 million

“A year ago, Apple blew past all expectations by reporting sales of 37 million iPhones in the Christmas quarter, 128% more than the year before and a cool 10 million units better than the median analyst’s estimate,” Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune.

“Nobody expects a repeat of that kind of surprise in two weeks when the company reports its first quarter earnings for fiscal 2013. Breakneck growth like that just can’t go on forever — especially with Samsung flooding the market with cheaper knock-off Androids,” P.E.D. reports. “Also, Q1 2012 had an extra week — 14 rather than the usual 13 — a fact I fully expect many reporters to forget when they do their year-over-year growth calculations this time around.”

P.E.D. reports, “The high estimate of 63 million — from congenitally bullish independent Nicolae Mihalache — represents 84% growth year over year (adjusted for the short quarter). Topeka Capital’s Brian White, despite his Street-high $1,111 price target, has come in with the lowest estimate of all: 43 million, up only 26% (adjusted) above last year.”

Check out all of the analysts’ estimates in the full article here.

Related articles:
Apple could be looking at big holiday quarter – January 9, 2013
Apple stuns Street with massive $46.33 billion record revenue; all-time record Mac, iPhone, iPad sales – January 24, 2012

20 Comments

  1. Those up there in the high estimates forget the phone was inpossible to find for weeks. I dont think everyone waited 4 weeks for a new phone. Im with the lower ones. 45millon

      1. Unfortunately, worldwide does not help that much: with the minimum $800 price in unsubsidised market, only relatively rich people can allow iPhone 5. And since USA’s activations grew only 15% at average, you could see that iPhone 5 sales for the quarter might go up from last year’s 37 million to 45 (maybe 50 if lucky), but, alas, hardly higher.

    1. Every iPhone has been difficult, not impossible, to find at launch, yet iPhone sales volume doubled in each of the 4 December quarters.

      This year’s high estimate represents 70% YoY growth. Consensus (~50 million) represents 35% YoY growth.

      I do not expect another doubling of unit sales, but 45 million is only 27% growth, when iPhone share has grown ~80% in the US, substantially overtaking all Android models.

      1. I didn’t say a specific percentage but as a new analyst, I am going to say the it is up double to triple percentage digits but it will be below other analyst estimates and the stock will tumble or climb a bit.

  2. Android (Google Inc.) — 136 million units, 75 percent share (57.5 percent a year earlier)

    — iOS (Apple Inc.’s iPhone) — 26.9 million units, 14.9 percent share (13.8 percent a year earlier)

    Ok now play catch up!!Remind you of something?

    Yes windows vs macs? Battle lost years ago! Apple is like Hitler who tried to battle everyone simultaneously! GAME OVER COMING SOON…

    1. I believe Apple made a big mistake limiting themselves to a AT&T originally with the iPhone. It’s allowed Android phones to get a good start. But it’s too late to un do that now. And the Android phones appeal to a lot of people especially with the larger screen size. Apple will be playing catch up now. And they will catch up to some extent. They will start eating into the lead that the Android phones have built up. Production has caught up with demand and iPhone fives are selling well. A new phone for the lower priced market should help cut into the Android lead also. In six months Apple will be doing much, much better even without China Mobile. Once they get on China Mobile things will really heat up. Apple will do fine going forward. They just won’t have the whole world to themselves as they did a few years ago. But only fools would’ve ever believed that that would stay that way forever. Competition is inevitable, whether it’s worthy or not. And no company, not even Apple, could continue to grow the way it has. It’s simply will never be the cash cow that it was far so many investors the last seven or eight years. But again, only a fool would expect it to continue forever. It will have good growth and a dividend going forward. At least for the foreseeable future. Just be careful going into earnings.

    2. Sounds like the only metric that matters to you is the numbers of units sold, whether we’re talking hot dogs or steak, and forget about profit margins.

      Numbers from today you may or may not be interested in:

      Apple Market Cap: 486.4 billion.

      Google Market Cap: 242.5 billion.

      Microsoft Market Cap: 224.7 billion.

      Any questions?

    3. Play catch up? Really? You mean like they did here in the US and even surpassed Android?

      Android is used by bottom feeders to sell cheap, low-margin devices. Apple is not and has never been a part of that market. Anyone with half a brain knows when you target a specific segment of the market, you’re only going to capture so much share.

      Mobile phones like computers are a commodity devices/products, Apple’s share of both markets reflects that.

      Look at iPod and iPad which are luxury devices. Apple is and will always remain at the top because the people REALLY interested in those devices are the same that Apple caters to. All other tablets sell well as gifts, because they’re cheap – no one is buying them for themselves as we will see after the holiday season when all those sales drop off a cliff, just as they did last year.

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