Asymco: Estimates for Apple’s first fiscal 2013 quarter

“I’ve postponed my estimates for the fourth calendar for a long time,” Horace Dediu writes for Asymco. “The reason is that there have been conflicting data to deal with and I’ve been hoping for some clues to give clarity. Unfortunately, even though I waited, I have not received many clues.”

“It does not help that it comes on the back of two weak quarters which were argued away as exhibiting transition effects,” Dediu writes. “So I’m very uncomfortable with my forecast and find it hard to defend this quarter. I considered not publishing one at all because it gives too much confidence when none is warranted. However, I received so many requests to publish that I relent…”

More info and estimates in the full article – recommended – here.

MacDailyNews Note: Among unit sales estimates for Apple’s various products, Dediu estimates revenue of $60.0 billion and EPS of $15.74, both of which handily exceed the current analysts’ consensus estimates of revenue of $54.54 billion and EPS of $13.33.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Dan K.” for the heads up.]


  1. Pie-in-the sky estimates like those from the indies and pros were the reasons Apple missed 3 out of the last 5 earnings reports and would likely miss the current report later this month. Don’t forget the whisper numbers which are even higher to set Apple up for certain failure.

    As if those obstacles are not enough, BS artists like Andy Hargreaves have moved the goalposts by trashing the March quarter just in case by some miracle Apple beats earnings on the 23rd.

    No wonder, shorts and hedgies are having a field day with AAPL at your expense while Cook and company look on in silence. They simply can’t lose.

  2. Wall Street tries its best to drive Apple to the wall even though Apple has all the attributes and metrics of a very successful company. Wall Street’s thinking is that if it keeps on hammering on Apple perceived “failure” Apple would buckle. But remember this: nowhere in history has any “failed” company the biggest cash hoard as Apple. Apple has the distinctive advantage over any other company: It is not beholden to Wall Street’s financial clout and so it has the freedom to ignore Wall Street’s advice and guidance and strike on its own course. This alarming truth makes Wall Street to realize that if more companies were to follow Apple’s example of financial discipline, Wall Street would lose its power to dictate to advise and at the same time gouge the very customers it is supposed to serve and assist.

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