“The iPhone 5 hasn’t even hit stores yet and it’s already blowing the doors off the competition. Apple pre-sold 2 million iPhone 5s in one day, setting a new smartphone record,” David Goldman reports for CNNMoney. “Industry analysts widely expect the iPhone 5 to be the bestselling mobile device of all time.Given the way Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) continues winning over consumers around the world, the iPhone 5’s global record will probably last exactly one sales cycle, until the iPhone 6 is released.”
Goldman reports, “In the United States, however, there’s a reasonable chance that the iPhone 5 will hold the nation’s smartphone sales record for much longer — maybe forever. As the smartphone boom comes to an end and carriers make upgrades more expensive and onerous for their customers, the iPhone’s popularity in the U.S. is likely to plateau.”
Most of Apple’s iPhones get sold to brand-new customers. Last year, Apple newbies bought two-thirds of the 30 million iPhones sold in the U.S., Macquarie Securities estimates,” Goldman reports. “Those numbers will start dropping as the pool of untapped iPhone customers willing to splurge on a new iPhone dries up. The iPhone represented 45% of all smartphone sales last year at the ‘Big Three’ national carriers — Verizon, AT&T and Sprint. Analysts at Macquarie, Nomura and other Wall Street firms expect that figure to rise significantly this year — then level off.”
Read more in the full article here.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Edward W.” for the heads up.]
Ooh the sky is falling, didnt they say the same befor the iPhone 5?
And Ballmer monkey boys will fly outta my butt… (Ouch!)
Who made this assumption? The same dumb azzes working for Obama that said the Egypt attack on Ambassador Stevens was because of a movie on 10 people saw?
Arrogantly stupid on your part.
The droning drive by media narrative is about the same in both cases.
Stop with the Trollitcs. This is a site for Apple related discussions, there are plenty of places for that type of talk.
Like when one watches the Oscars and has to put up with a Sally Field tirade or go to a Dixie Chicks or Madonna concert and put up with their view of how things ought to be. Welcome to our world.
We are not at the Oscars, and we did not purchase a ticket to a Dixie Chicks or Madonna concert. We are on MDN. Keep your world to yourself.
With due respect, you missed a few dozen arial maneuvers over a several schools of sharks if you think this place is a haven from political opinion.
Also with a major US election coming up, expect politics to pop up in more and more places.
“Nothing in all this world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance
and conscientious stupidity”
– From Strength to Love, 1963
MLK
Gonna use that! Class quote.
Oh great. Let’s skip the subject and go all PoliTardical! So you want that Romney numbnutz over that Obama putz and just have to propagandize your jizzz all over us. Oh, and you have to do it as an anonymous coward. Well done little ditto head. Report back to headquarters for a free car sticker. 😯
@ Andrew21742: Please do some quick fact-checking before you sound off. Egyptians didn’t attack Stevens. Stevens was in Libya and was attacked in a well-planned raid on the compound by Al Qaeda. The timing was for the raid to happen on 9/11. That there were less violent protests in Egypt about a film was purely coincidental and bore no relationship to the assassination of Stevens.
Ah, it was Libya and not Eygpt. Easy mistake, they both have 5 letters.
And its asses, not azzes.
And its Egypt, not Eygpt.
… or something
Uh….I’ve upgraded each time. I know many people who do.
Right!! This is the end of history. Nothing new will ever be invented again. Progress is over! We are living today in the era the world was created for. What arrogant nonsense!
The Duell Syndrome:
http://www.ideafinder.com/guest/archives/wow-duell.htm
As fewer people are without a smart phone and with the two year contract cycle, it becomes more difficult to increase the rate of acquiring new customers. There is some sense to this, but it may take a little longer as the Android crowd will likely contribute to new iPhone sales as they switch.
One more reason why Apple needs to control the whole experience and do away with cellular companies altogether. Its been talked about, rumored, praised and wished upon and eventually I’m confident it could happen.
Bingo- good comment. The article says future iPhones may not garner so many sales, because of the Telco’s, not Apple. These over controlling installers of transmitter boxes have put zero value add into my smartphone experience in the 3 years I’ve had my iPhone and all they want to do is figure out how to connive me out of my grandfathered agreement. All apple needs to do is Trojan in a 5th transmit band into their iPhone , launch a few dozen satellites And say goodbye to ’em all!
Those newbies that represented 2/3s of sales last year will join the hundreds of millions of loyal iPhone customers who are now within a very predictable and stable 2yr upgrade cycle. Also note that customers who previously had opted for cheaper Android and Blackberry offerings are now moving to newly built but older iPhone models. So yes, maybe the brand new top of line iPhone will not see the same meteoric trajectory in sales over the previous top o the line model, but tons on revenue will continue to flow to Apple via its huge install base of iPhone users. Studies have shown that once uses enter the Apple evosystem, they are very loyal.
Yes, I agree.
To get around this idea, the author tries to fiat in the concept of rising carrier charges for upgrade “as the smartphone boom ends”. I’m not sure why they would do this if people are already upgrading at a good rate, which, as you note, iPhone owners do.
I’m sure the carriers would like to have more months without paying for the iPhone subsidy, but I suspect they have already factored in the shorter upgrade cycle.
Also, empirically iPhone owner are more likely to spend money on and via their tech – not sure that even a small bump in rates or subsidized phone prices is going to slow this train.
“As the smartphone boom comes to an end. . .”
And what evidence of this is there?
Wishful thinking trying to manipulate the stock. There’s one or two in every crowd. So far they’ve always been wrong and will continue to be. It will be interesting what Apple will do for a follow up with iP6. They probably know the space will need a bit of a kick in the posterior to reignite (if needed) and maintain sales and interest. Before smart phones phones didn’t change much for decades yet we expect yearly chewing satisfaction now. Such is the digital way. Once you get on that train there’s no getting off.
The guy is pulling a delayed August Effect. On vacation, nothing to write, pulled it out of his back orifice. Thanks David Goldman who reports for CNN. Incompetence noted. 😛
Apple, of course, would never target the other 80% of the worlds population outside of the US & EU markets, so…
In addition, Apple has multiple versions of Airport, MacBook, MacPro and rumored iPad, but Apple would NEVER make an iPhone Mini, now, would they?
Apple’s marketing team above all else is not stupid.
I was going to comment but you did it for me. Thanks.
US smartphone penetration has only just passed 50%. That means 150,000,000 people still don’t have a smartphone. What plateau? Idiot.
Precisely. I’m on one of the smaller regional carriers that has, thus far, not been blessed with the darned thing (CDMA). I could change carriers I suppose, but my choices are Verizon or ATT. So far, I haven’t needed a smart phone, so no real impetus to change; my 7-year-old dumb phone does the job for my little bit of calling, and I’ve got an iPad for my mobile computing. Whether my carrier ever jumps into the LTE pot remains to be seen; if it does and the phone is made available, then I might consider going to an iPhone. I certainly would like to have one, but I really don’t need it. Regardless, I remain a potential owner, and I certainly have no interest in an android device. The iPhone has already won me over; the industry, not so much. (Though counter to the claims some are making about kids not thinking iPhones are cool anymore, my nephew is getting one for his birthday next month [shhhh…it’s a surprise] and it is all he has been asking for; all his friends have a 4 or a 4S. He’ll be at the top of the heap with a new 5. His mama [and his uncle] sure are nice people to him)
hilarious logic:
iPhone/Apple naysayers i.e. Samsung ads mock iPhone lines.
they state there’s no painful lines to wait for their phones.
exactly!!
no lines = less unit sales schmucks. + less loyalty.
fans are not stupid, but Samsung etc. take us for granted. not Apple!
the other Samsung mockery:
apple fanboys standing in line for each product should get paid. does that not spell out total loyalty, more than stupidity?! it’s more sales. Samsung’s wishful wed dream! they’re merely jealous.
keep poking fun, Apple’s not the one suffering hermorrhages & mockery reversal up your asses right back at you…
OMG they’re predicting sales will eventually slow with the iP5 before another iPhone comes out!!? This has never happened before.. eh,, oh wait… Schmucks.
No, they’re predicting that Apple won’t have another US sales record before the iPhone 5 even comes out. Forget waiting to see what Apple has up its sleeve for the next 4 or 5 iPhones.
Whenever someone proclaims that a record can’t be broken, it always is.
Just one word… China.
Or as Joe Biden would say, “a four letter word: C-H-I-N-A, China!”
Absolutely nobody outside of Apple and only a few people at Apple have an idea how the 2013 iPhone will be. So any predictions about the acceptance is just bullsh*t.
uh-oh! Do you smell another attenuation-gate in the future?
OMG! Apple is DOOMED.
Again.
The tech media, as they’re calling themselves (aka media outlets in Google or Microsoft’s pockets), is tired of the iPhone.
I’m not.
IPhone iteration means different things to different analyst. They get their predictions wrong because they always think the new iPhone is a totally different device each year. They are not and the reason for new and old to buy the latest release is that the price is the same. As a consumer in the USA for forty years, I replace my car every four years. I love replacing my iPhone every year or every two years. I get a new battery with every new IPhone. They look very reliable and it has it’s own cache. I used to buy MBs for the same reason. Cache built in and extra,extra care in its manufacture.
In other news, flying monkeys may take over Washington D.C. As the politician boom ends, flying monkeys are expected to slowly take over. Politicians have had a good run but their popularity is waining. Analysts believe that this will probably be the last election in which politicians will be elected.
Right….just until the next best seller comes out 🙂
Now that Steve is gone, Apple has run out of ideas. No one else at Apple has the ability to think for themselves. I suppose a company such as Samsung will always come up with new smartphone designs and Apple won’t be able to. I know for a fact that most analysts are clueless when it comes to understanding why consumers buy products. I’m sure Apple knows very well why consumers buy their products and I’m sure it’s a very simple reason. High-quality products and great customer service. That’s a no-brainer. As long as Apple continues to deliver at least those two things, consumers will continue to happily buy from Apple.
Those numbers will start dropping as the pool of untapped iPhone customers willing to splurge on a new iPhone dries up.
How amusing. I read EXACTLY that same prediction EXACTLY two years ago from some other TechTard journalist. Notice how wrong they were then and watch how wrong they are now…
FUD! FUD! FUD! FUD! 😯