Asymco: Apple could easily sell over 250 million ‘iPhone 5’ units

“Phil Schiller stated (under oath) that when assessing sales for a new model of the iPhone, Apple used an easy shorthand: ‘Each new generation sold approximately equal to all previous generations combined,'” Horace Dediu reports for Asymco.

MacDailyNews Take: Schiller’s Law.

“In order to test this rule of thumb we need to know generational sales. Although we know overall unit sales for a given quarter, since Apple has been selling several versions simultaneously, we need to make some guesses about the ratio of generations in the mix. My guess is about 10% for 3G vs. 90% 3GS and 5% 3GS vs. 10% 4 vs. 85% 4S,” Dediu writes. “The assumptions show that… The 4S is only half way through beating the 4+3GS+3G+original. Assuming the current quarter’s sales roughly equal the last quarter’s, the total for 4S will reach two thirds of the sum of the previous generations (i.e. 100 million) by the end of September. Bearing in mind that the 4S is likely to remain in production at least one more year means it has a potential to come close to the target of 162 million.”

“This leaves us with the question of how many iPhone ‘5’s will sell. As it stands today, the cumulative total would have to be greater than 263 million units,” Dediu writes. “Unfortunately, this is a moving target. As the 4S (and maybe 4) remain in production, the target continues to increase with time… If the iPhone ‘5’ remains in production for at least as long as the 3GS then it might cross 200 million… Underlying all this is the question of a change in strategy toward more penetration (vs. current skimming.) That might allow for sustaining the 100% historic growth rate. If so then Apple will easily sell 250 million iPhone ‘5’s.”

It’s clearer in the full article due the usual excellent charts and graphs. Read it (and weep, if you’re a phone maker not named Apple Inc.) here.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Fred Mertz” for the heads up.]

11 Comments

    1. The screen width is already know like the outcome of the race for president. No wider screen, no wider deficits. Screen stays the same width, Romney takes over and they send the Kenyan back home.

      1. Dude, really? If you want to be taken seriously: 1) Don’t post off topic and 2) drop the “Kenyan” nonsense. You can hate BHO all you want, but he was born in the USA (cue music).

        1. Ah, Dude! Whether you like it or not BHO is Kenyan. His father was from there and so it makes BHO one. Ask the Kenyan people and govt. It doesn’t make BHO less of an American; it just means that he is a dual national.

          Whether he is qualified to continue to serve as President is not about his birth but about his performance (or the lack thereof) during his first administration. That is up to each in-duh-vidual to decide.

          As for selling 250 MM iPhone 5s or the “new” iPhone, one word: indubitably.

          Cheers.

  1. As a 4 user count me as another sale due to ‘pent up demand’.
    I have looked at the others, they’re wretched plastic fakes, not one has the design brilliance of even the original iPhone.

    Also, if you look at the customer satisfaction ratings, the iPhone stands on its own.

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