Some analysts see Apple Q312 earnings missing Wall Street’s consensus estimate tomorrow

“Apple Inc faces an unusual phenomenon when reporting earnings this time around: low expectations. Few are expecting the world’s most valuable technology company — which surpasses Wall Street expectations with near regularity — to deliver a bumper quarter once more on Tuesday,” Poornima Gupta reports for Reuters. “The main reason: consumers holding out for the new iPhone.”

“The iPhone 5 is only expected to hit store shelves around October — just in time for the holidays — with a thinner, larger screen and fine-tuned search features. Couple that pre-launch lull with slowdowns in Europe and China, Apple’s biggest markets outside of North America, and sentiment on the Wall Street darling is more muted than many can remember in a while,” Gupta reports. “‘No longer is Apple the company that beats every time,’ said Tim Lesko, portfolio manager at Granite Investment Advisors, which owns Apple stock. ‘I expect Apple to beat Apple’s guidance, but I don’t know whether they will beat Wall Street’s guidance.'”

“Apple is expected to report fiscal third-quarter earnings of $10.35 a share on revenue of $37.2 billion, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S,” Gupta reports. “Top Wall Street analysts are betting the numbers will undershoot that. Apple may miss the average sales forecast by about 0.2 percent, according to Thomson Reuters Starmine’s SmartEstimates, which places greater emphasis on timely forecasts by top-rated analysts.”

MacDailyNews Note: On April 24, 2012, Apple CFO Peter Oppenheimer provided Q312 guidance of “revenue of about $34 billion” and “diluted earnings per share of about $8.68.”

“Wall Street estimates Apple sold about 29 million iPhones, down from 35.1 million sold in the March quarter. Sales of the new iPad, expected to be 14 million to 15 million, is likely to offset part of the anticipated sequential drop in iPhones sales,” Gupta reports. “Wall Street expects that the outlook for this year’s holiday season will be enormous for Apple as it may include the launch of a new iPhone as well as a potential new ‘mini iPad.’ Apple has been working on a smaller tablet, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters.”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Note: Apple reports fiscal Q312 earnings results tomorrow after market close. We will have them results as soon as they are available, right around 4:30pm EDT. As usual, we will also provide live notes from Apple’s Q312 Conference Call starting at 5pm EDT tomorrow, July 24.

[Thanks to MacDailyNews Reader “Fred Mertz” for the heads up.]

13 Comments

  1. Considering Apple has not released the new iMacs yet I can confess that I contributed to Apple’s failure to attain expected earnings last quarter. It’s all my fault.

  2. So once again, Apple will outperform their own estimates but because this country has incompetent overpaid analysts (so called professionals) that over/under-project consistently, Apple’s stock will once again suffer. At least these analysts will have a bright future in weather forecasting if they ever decide to find a real career.

  3. I did my share. A new 13″ MBP, iPad 32g and 3 iPhones. I honestly believe most people don’t read MDN, don’t follow analysts and buy Apple products when they want them. I do believe Apple will knock the socks off again with higher than expected earnings. The stores are always packed.

  4. Reoccurrence of the use of “disappointing” such as occurred after the last WWDC and discussion concerning the delay in new iMacs, whether there will ever be a new MacPro, and if the new iPhone will be “magical” or just catching up with the competition are going to result in a whole bunch of us AAPL owners saying that WE are the ones most disappointed.

  5. This is like saying “the target missed the arrow.”. Just because the analysts can’t guess what Apple’s earnings will be does not mean Apple missed anything.

  6. “. ‘I expect Apple to beat Apple’s guidance, but I don’t know whether they will beat Wall Street’s guidance.’”

    Wall Street does not provide guidance, only wild guesses that work best to make wall street analysts and stock sales people the most money.

    When amateurs make getter projections than professionals, you know where the brains are.

    Just saying…
    en

  7. I think apple will surprise in a good way. The iPhone is picking up a lot of new users who haven’t had a smartphone in the past. The iPad is popping up everywhere. And macs are containing to make in roads.

    It is bit early for a jump in stock prices but you never know with the market. This type of talk is designed to drop the price so that the brokers can buy in and then pump the stock.

  8. Every year the analysts project the summer quarter as if it’s the same as all other quarters, and it’s not. Anyone who doesn’t know iPhones are released in the late summer/early fall, and waits for them, isn’t paying attention.

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