Needham analyst Wolf ups Apple’s Q312 iPad estimates from 13.5 million to 20 million units

“In an note to clients Thursday that was unusually long and detailed for a simple revised estimate, Needham’s Charlie Wolf rattled off a long list of reasons he thinks Apple (AAPL) sold a lot more iPads in the quarter than ended June 30 than what he confesses was a ‘hastily formulated initial estimate’ published three months ago,” Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune.

“In April, he was looking for sales of 13.5 million iPads — in line with what a lot of Wall Street analysts were saying at the time,” P.E.D. reports. “Now he’s expecting Apple to report sales of 20 million units, which is the highest we’ve seen from any institutional analyst… [Wolf writes], ‘When iPad 2 was introduced in March 2011, sales increased 97% in the following (June) quarter. Our forecast of 20 million iPad sales in June implies a 70% sequential increase from March. While this number appears aggressive, it must be remembered that Apple has continued to sell iPad 2 at the lower price of $399. A study by Consumer Intelligence Research Partners found that since the introduction of the new iPad in March, iPad 2 has composed 41% of all iPad purchases.'”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: Welcome to reality, Chuck!

Related article:
Analysts iPad unit sales estimates for Q312 range from 12.7 million to 24 million – July 9, 2012
Another big miss by analysts looms; Apple reports Q312 earnings on July 24 – July 5, 2012

18 Comments

  1. “Lets pull the stock down another 10% before earnings, with burst trickle selling shall we” say all the big hedgeies and institutional holders…

    They can blitz sells and dump enough shares that they will sacrifice of their large holdings only to create a panic sell, which will drop the stock low enough so that they can buy it back and then some just before earnings for a quick 20-30% profit… Watch.

    This is the new trend…: “lets see in how short a time (pun intended) we can make obscene profits”. Mutha fukas!!!

    Stay long Apple is the only company making money and quality products that everyone loves.

        1. Easy as archery: Pull it back, release, watch it soar.

          It is a shame the SEC nor justice department seem interested in pursuing these criminals. I guess they have more important things to do like covering up gunrunning to the mexican drug lord schemes or attempting to put everyone else out of the e-book business so amazon can get back to enjoying their monopoly on ebooks.

            1. It was the justice department that covered up the gunrunning, don’t you watch the news or are one of those, eyes wide shut folks?
              But if they weren’t so busy I am sure they would investigate…not!

            2. It is within the purview of both the justice department and the SEC to investigate market manipulation. (as it is a federal crime, but then giving guns to mexican drug cartels is also a crime so I guess that kind of thing just doesn’t carry much weight anymore)
              Both refuse to even consider the the market manipulation issue. Seems you have blinders on my friend.

            3. I come up with facts and real questions, you use profanity and name calling and I am the desperate one?
              Well… Allllrighty then.

              Do you really think it is ok that we smuggled guns to the mexican drug cartels and then covered that up and then refused to answer questions (before the congressional committee)?
              You know this makes the Nixon watergate thing same tame by comparison, and yet the most of the “press” (and Obama supporters) seem ambivalent even dismissive. I am still amazed by the blinders some are willing to wear.

            4. First off,  just like you know nothing of the facts behind your “no doubt qualified” political ranting, you know very little about the meaning of simple words  either: IDOT- is not a profanity it’s not a profane word and neither is Moron ( if the shoe fits). Try updating your RAM and retaining.

              Second, there are levels of security and national security which are out of bounds to unprofessional qualified people, whether that qualification is security, professional or experience related. They certainly may be compromising of national security, ongoing and developing situations – classified. ‘You’ don’t have a clue…Ever stop to think different? Maybe certain things need to be classified and are known and disclosed only to the people thay need to be…(those on committees included) WTF do you know about what’s going on in the Justice dept and WTF does the gunrunning red herring have to do with the SEC looking into Apple stock manipulation?

              Kind of like Apple’s much criticized operational secrecy… in product development or anything Apple, that extends to all personel’s conduct relating to disclosures. You do understand leaks and how they can compromise a company’s business right?

              Basically, there are endless idiots that think they are qualified to tell Steve Jobs or Tim Cook what they could, should do or should have done, without any knowledge of any facts, ( facts- wassat?) – imagine that these loudmouths ran Apple…

              Yeah, excuse me for digressing to Apple again (I realize that your politically wet pants cant’ be wet enough) but this is an Apple forum you know…?

              Tessellator  
              Friday, July 13, 2012 – 12:08 pm ·

              I come up with facts and real questions, you use profanity and name calling and I am the desperate one?
              Well… Allllrighty then.

              Do you really think it is ok that we smuggled guns to the mexican drug cartels and then covered that up and then refused to answer questions (before the congressional committee)?
              You know this makes the Nixon watergate thing same tame by comparison, and yet the most of the “press” (and Obama supporters) seem ambivalent even dismissive. I am still amazed by the blinders some are willing to wear.

            5. First off,  just like you know nothing of the facts behind your “no doubt qualified” political ranting, you know very little about the meaning of simple words  either: IDOT- is not a profanity it’s not a profane word and neither is Moron ( if the shoe fits). Try updating your RAM and retaining.

              Second, there are levels of security and national security which are out of bounds to unprofessional qualified people, whether that qualification is security, professional or experience related. They certainly may be compromising of national security, ongoing and developing situations – classified. ‘You’ don’t have a clue…Ever stop to think different? Maybe certain things need to be classified and are known and disclosed only to the people thay need to be…(those on committees included) WTF do you know about what’s going on in the Justice dept and WTF does the gunrunning red herring have to do with the SEC looking into Apple stock manipulation?

              Kind of like Apple’s much criticized operational secrecy… in product development or anything Apple, that extends to all personel’s conduct relating to disclosures. You do understand leaks and how they can compromise a company’s business right?

              Basically, there are endless idiots that think they are qualified to tell Steve Jobs or Tim Cook what they could, should do or should have done, without any knowledge of any facts, ( facts- wassat?) – imagine that these loudmouths ran Apple…

              Yeah, excuse me for digressing to Apple again (I realize that your politically wet pants cant’ be wet enough) but this is an Apple forum you know…?

  2. Chuck must be getting tired of being blown away by the “amateurs”. If he’s proven right, we’ll probably start to see a trend of the “professionals” getting a lot closer to the amateurs’ estimates (despite their not wanting to- I just don’t get why quarter after quarter the “professionals” insist on being so absolutely wrong by so dramatically and consistently underestimating Apple).

    1. You may be impressed but Wall Street clearly isn’t. Apple has again fallen below $600 a share. It’s nothing critical nor does it reflect Apple’s sales. I’m only pointing out that Apple can’t do enough to satisfy Wall Street.

  3. What the hell did Wolf think in the first place? Tim Cook announced “significantly” more iPad sales sequentially for the June quarter. Last time he did that (April 2011), that meant that sales went up sequentially from 4.694M to 9.246M, almost a factor 2. In this March quarter they sold 11.798M, so it is a good guess they sold about 24M this June quarter, which is what Horace Dediu predicts. My guess is 22M.

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