Another big miss by analysts looms; Apple reports Q312 earnings on July 24

“What will Apple (AAPL) earn in the upcoming quarter? Don’t ask the analysts: They haven’t been right in years. Apple has beaten consensus estimates 25 out of the last 26 quarters, usually handily,” Stephen Rosenman writes for Seeking Alpha.

“The always-off-the-mark guys have actually cut estimates for Apple’s upcoming quarter,” Rosenman writes. “Consensus estimates are now $10.33. One analyst actually predicts $9.10 a share! I’m predicting another big miss by the analysts. When it comes to predicting profits, the rear view mirror is far more accurate than relying on the pros. Take the case of Apple’s June quarters. Apple has made more money in its June quarter than in its March quarter for the last 9 years. That’s a reliable pattern, one you can use to predict June’s numbers accurately. In fact, the March numbers are far better predictors of June than a roomful of analysts.”

Rosenman writes, “Consensus June estimate is $10.33. Apple made $12.30 in the last March quarter. I doubt analyst forecasts will be correct (not to mention breaking a 9-year trend.) Expect the historical pattern to continue: Apple makes at least $12.30 and trounces estimates.”

Read more in the full article here.


  1. I used too be among the group that derided the pros. Today, I realize that they have a different customer/motive. First it is important not to be wrong on the SHORT side. Second, they get paid for their estimates, the estimates that get post for public dissemination are meaningless. If you want what they really think, you gotta pay.

        1. Oh yeah Demotards never lie. And I’ve got swamp land in Florida to sell you if you believe that! I was a political photographer for Democrat politicians and they are as corrupt, disingenuous and self-serving as the day is long. Nothing to be proud of in either party. Sorry to burst your sorry bubble.

    1. Does this really make sense though? Are there any other stocks that the analysts always miss on by such a margin? There are thousands of stocks to make money on and the vast majority fall reasonably in line with analyst estimates. What makes Apple special that they would intentionally give bad numbers? I think a lot of them really are clueless because they haven’t seen anything like it before.

  2. Ah, the analysts.

    They are still clinging to their unsubstantiated belief that the arc of success must wane, any day now.

    They seem to be as well paid as TV weathermen, and just as insouciant when their predictions prove wrong.

  3. The one quarter Apple didn’t “beat” estimates is when the analysts didn’t pay attention to Apple’s own prediction of lower numbers due to slate intro of the iPhone 4S.

    1. They look at the numbers in their local Apple Stores and extrapolate for USA numbers. They take the USA numbers and extrapolate for the rest of the world.

      They should be bribing an engineer at each Foxxcon plant to get real numbers.

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