“What will Apple (AAPL) earn in the upcoming quarter? Don’t ask the analysts: They haven’t been right in years. Apple has beaten consensus estimates 25 out of the last 26 quarters, usually handily,” Stephen Rosenman writes for Seeking Alpha.
“The always-off-the-mark guys have actually cut estimates for Apple’s upcoming quarter,” Rosenman writes. “Consensus estimates are now $10.33. One analyst actually predicts $9.10 a share! I’m predicting another big miss by the analysts. When it comes to predicting profits, the rear view mirror is far more accurate than relying on the pros. Take the case of Apple’s June quarters. Apple has made more money in its June quarter than in its March quarter for the last 9 years. That’s a reliable pattern, one you can use to predict June’s numbers accurately. In fact, the March numbers are far better predictors of June than a roomful of analysts.”
Rosenman writes, “Consensus June estimate is $10.33. Apple made $12.30 in the last March quarter. I doubt analyst forecasts will be correct (not to mention breaking a 9-year trend.) Expect the historical pattern to continue: Apple makes at least $12.30 and trounces estimates.”
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