Analyst: No material impact to Google if Apple Maps become iOS default mapping app

“Apple may be trying to minimize Google’s presence on its mobile screens, but Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster doesn’t expect the search giant to feel much pain,” Philip Elmer-DeWitt reports for Fortune.

“Munster estimates that Google will generate about $4.5 billion in gross mobile revenue in 2012, the lion’s share ($4 billion) from search ads and the rest ($500 million) from display. He believes that iOS is likely to remain the biggest or close to the biggest source of that revenue, generating roughly 40% of the total (or $1.6 billion). Assuming Google keeps half (after subtracting so-called acquisition costs), iOS would generate about 2% of Google’s total revenue in 2012,” P.E.D. reports. “Bottom line, according to Munster: ‘We do not expect any material impact to these assumptions if Google Maps were to no longer be the default mapping application on iOS.'”

Read more in the full article here.

MacDailyNews Take: In the short-term, perhaps, but what about long-term, Gene?

There was a reason for Google’s weak maps dog and pony show yesterday; a few days before Apple’s June 11th WWDC keynote presentation. It wasn’t just circumstance.

Related articles:
Google is scared witless of Apple’s Maps for iOS 6 – June 6, 2012
Google unveils new 3D maps coming to iOS and Android; demos to press on Apple iPad – June 6, 2012
Apple to dump Google Maps off iPhone and iPad – June 5, 2012
Leaked images of Apple’s new iOS 6 Maps app with 3D mapping – May 29, 2012
Apple’s iOS 6 dumps Google Maps, debuts in-house ‘Maps’ with incredible 3D mode, sources say (with video) – May 11, 2012
Apple acquires second 3D mapping company: C3 Technologies; looks to take iOS Maps to mind-blowing level – October 29, 2011
Patent application shows Apple looking to advance iOS ‘Maps + Compass’ with augmented reality – August 18, 2011
Evidence in iOS 5 that Apple is building its own mapping solution – June 23, 2011
Evidence in iOS 5 that Apple is building its own mapping solution – June 23, 2011
Apple looking to ‘radically improve’ iPhone Maps and location services – March 25, 2011
Apple acquires Poly9 online mapping firm – July 14, 2010
Apple’s purchase of map firm Placebase a sign of Google rift? – October 1, 2009

Android sees lowest U.S. user growth in three years – June 4, 2012
Nielsen: Apple’s U.S. iPhone market share surges as Android stalls – March 29, 2012
ABI: Apple iPhone tops smartphone market as Android suffers its first decline in share – January 27, 2012
Apple overtakes Samsung to take world’s largest smartphone vendor crown – January 27, 2012
These charts will make the Fandroids want to puke – January 26, 2012
AT&T sold 7.6 million iPhones and fewer than 1.8 million Android phones in Q411 – January 26, 2012
Apple’s iOS passes Google’s Android to take U.S. smartphone market share crown – January 25, 2012
Analyst: Verizon’s record iPhone sales signal waning demand for Google Android phones – January 24, 2012

18 Comments

  1. Does no one remember one year ago when Schmidt was at AllThingsD and said this: “We just renewed our Map and Search agreements with Apple, and we hope those continue for a long time.”

    Obviously, Google has some interest in keeping these deals. I would imagine that they do, in fact, gain monetarily from such deals, contrary to what Munster is saying. Google pays Mozilla a boatload of money to be the default search for Firefox, but they probably make even more money from the number of clicked ads that result from such a deal. In any case, it appears that the deal may not continue for many years as Schmidt had hoped.

    source: http://www.mygreatiphone.com/news/google-apple-ink-new-deal-to-keep-google-maps-on-idevices/

  2. Gene is wrong on this one. Why do many people use Google ? Because everyone else does. If iPhone and Mac users get used to using Apple Maps there’s one less reason to go to Google.

    And remember building a search engine is not that hard – true, Google’s success was (initially at least) due to it’s proprietary algorithm. But there’s no reason why Apple couldn’t, if they wanted to, build their own successful search engine.

    1. Correct, but so many people use Google only because it is the default search engine. (on Apple devices) Most people will not even look to change the setting. Once Apple, takes that option away Google will be badly hurt. And they will.

      The agreement for Apple placing Google Search as Default was the exchange for two sweet Apps from Google. Maps and Youtube. These two apps on iPhone positioned and very enticing sell to most people, in the early days of iPhone. The options have arrived. Say good bye to those two key apps Apple will replace Maps, and search is down with Siri’s engine. Text entered search will default to Bing.

  3. Apple has all of the user interfaces built in for search, and they can turn on their search engine anytime they want to. That is what concerns Google the most.

  4. “Oh, you should never, never doubt what nobody is sure about.”
    from Willy Wonka & the Chocolate Factory
    (quote based on “The Microbe” by Hilaire Belloc)

    Apple never tip-toes into a new arena. Never! There is no reason to expect it with maps. Don’t people ever learn?

  5. This wasn’t because Apple wanted to minimize Google’s presence, it was because of the restrictions Google placed on Apple, like not allowing voice turn by turn, in the iPhone while featuring it on their Android phones.
    Also, this is not new news, this has been in the works for years.

  6. If you understand that C3 technologies is first a Social Mapping system and accept that FaceBook and Google are merely advertising revenues; YOU CAN BET these news maps from Apple will be combined with Siri and definitely hurt Google in a material way.

    If you disagree, why has Google bothered to up their game and proposed a challenge to Apple going with MapGL?

  7. Death by a thousand cuts may be slow but it is still death. The next to the last thing to die is hope. Google is still hoping but the blood trail is there. Anyone see sharks yet?

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