“If Apple were to offer high-definition television sets with an average selling price of $1,500, one Wall Street analyst believes the company could capture 5 percent of the market and earn $17 billion in revenue,” Neil Hughes reports for AppleInsider.
“Ben A. Reitzes with Barclays Capital calculates that the LCD market will reach about 230 million units in calendar year 2012,” Hughes reports. “He suggested that Apple could, over time, capture 5 percent of that market and earn $17 billion in revenue, which would be almost 10 percent of his fiscal 2013 estimate of $183.1 billion for the company.”
Hughes reports, “With assumed gross margins of around 40 percent on a full-fledged Apple television set, he sees the company gaining about $5.40 earnings per share, or about 11 percent of his fiscal 2013 EPS estimate of $48.46.”
Read more in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: Idiocy. We’re going to do something radical: If there is an “Apple iTV” product, we’ll wait to see what it does before estimating its potential.
[Thanks to MacDailyNews Readers “Fred Mertz,” “Dan K.,” and “Sarah” for the heads up.]
What the hell? Where do people come up with this stuff?
It’s easy enough to generate from a BRED analysis of emerging FLAN technology. And if you feed the data into a SAMN graph, profits from an AAPL TV are somewhere in the $15B – $20B range.
Brings a whole new meaning to ‘revised’. This anal idiot should revise his ass to sit on his shoulders with his kind of amazing fotune telling talent.
iTV has already been announced and is in use. See http://www.itv.com for details.
Boys, you need to calm down, all of you (which includes MDN).
As we all know, Wall Street is one massive casino. Rich people bet on various companies, much like they bet on horses, or boxing fights, based on their assessment of individual strengths and weaknesses of those competitors. Much like in the gaming industry, there are people who make a living providing expert advice to the bettors in order to enhance their odds of winning. And these professional advisors analyse every possible scenario, as fantastic and out-of-this-world as it may be.
This guy is taking a somewhat likely premise, that Apple will release a HDTV set sometime in future, and projects possible outcome of such premise. Those who wish to bet on AAPL will then take this projection into consideration. There is nothing wrong with this, nor is it stupid, idiotic or moronic. The guy is performing a service for which there is a large market. He does it very clearly and openly; nothing under-handed or misleading. It is up to those who bet on Wall Street to decide whether the premise (Apple releasing a HDTV set) is plausible or not, and then to extrapolate whether the analyst’s projection holds water or not. And then, they decide whether to place that bet on AAPL.
That’s all this is; nothing more, nothing less. And there’s nothing wrong with that.
That’s one way of looking at it.
Of course, not all the players involved play fairly. There are those that bet on quick ups and downs in stocks and they strategically place flat out bull$hit in place of real information to manipulate that process. Not saying that’s what’s happening here, but I think anyone who has followed Apple stock over the past 10 years is — prepare for massive understatement — just a bit cynical about the process.
@Predrag
Nothing wrong?
$17 billion? Too little…
It’s “idiotic” because today’s Apple would not consider going into a new market with a brand new product, if its potential market share, “over time,” is only 5%.
The only recent exception was the original Apple TV, which Apple (still) carefully calls a “hobby.” This product that everyone is calling “iTV” will not be a hobby. If Apple is ready to release it, Apple has MUCH higher expectations.
When the iPhone was introduced Jobs said that a 1% market share of the worlds cellular handset business was a good start for Apple.
5% is seemingly rather low however, if that percentage is worldwide over time — it can only grow. And obviously be imitated during the success run. During that point Apple will see its fruits and push for improvements yearly on the device and grow the popularity and percentage of the market.
So, Nostradamus here predicts an Apple product with small market share but huge revenue?!? That’s not a crystal ball, it’s a rear-view mirror.
Ben Reitzes of Barclays Capital came 45’th out of 50 in the independent analysts versus Wall Street analysts.
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/01/25/apples-blow-out-quarter-once-again-the-street-blew-it/