AAPL Analyst Smackdown: Once again the ‘pros’ blew it, humiliated by the ‘amateurs’

“With revenues that grew 73% and earnings that more than doubled, Apple (AAPL) proved Tuesday that the fourth quarter results that so disappointed Wall Street last fall were a fluke,” Phillip Elmer-Dewitt reports for Fortune. “The company that Steve Jobs built is still that rare beast in American business: A $400 billion giant that acts — and grows — like a start-up.”

“Tuesday’s results also revealed another fluke: The shellacking that our team of independent analysts suffered in October at the hands of Wall Street analysts with some of the worst track records in the business,” P.E.D. reports. “This time… the order we had documented in more than half a dozen consecutive quarters was restored.”

P.E.D. reports, “Once again, the Street blew it. And although even the most bullish independents were surprised by the strength of Apple’s Q1 2012 results, at least they were in the ball park. So kudos to Navin Nagrani, the Chicago real-estate executive who won this quarter’s Earnings Smackdown with the best revenue and earnings estimates of the 50 analysts we polled. I’m not sure what to say about Gabelli’s Hendi Susanto, who had the worst estimates for revenue (off by $11 billion), EPS (off by $5) and iPhones (off by nearly 12 million units) as well as the second worst estimates for iPods and iPads. As near as I can tell, he published his numbers on Oct. 19, just after Apple’s big miss, and never looked at them again. But he’s got plenty of company…”

Full article, with the complete results, here.

Related articles:
More iPhones sold than babies born in the world every day – January 25, 2012
Apple shares hit new all-time intraday high – January 25, 2012
Morgan Keegan hikes Apple price target from $513 to $650 – January 25, 2012
Canaccord ups Apple price target from $560 to $650 – January 25, 2012
Trying to put Apple’s mind-bending numbers into some sort of context – January 25, 2012
After Apple’s absolutely epic quarter, will the Street finally wake up? – January 25, 2012
MacDailyNews presents live notes from Apple’s Q112 Conference Call – January 24, 2012
Apple stuns Street with massive $46.33 billion record revenue; all-time record Mac, iPhone, iPad sales – January 24, 2012

13 Comments

      1. Ponder all the hours put into their AAPL projections. The WORLD has never seen the likes of a company like Apple.
        Why? It was never about the money for Steve Jobs. Apple is principled on doing the Right Thing. A concept that competitors have yet to grasp. Until they realize this concept, they will end up in the bowls of the cesspool just like the brown Zune. A brown Zune that squirts? Sounds like a bad case of diarrhea. How innovative.

  1. … and an infinite number of monkeys at typewriters can reproduce the works of Shakespeare. The Internet may have its stars, but on average it’s not much different from a room full of monkeys. One “amateur” was bound to get it right … no real news there.

    1. ” One “amateur” was bound to get it right” It’s worth the time to check out Philip Elmer Dewitt’s columns over at Apple 2.0 at tech.fortune.com He spends a lot of time covering the “amateurs” who have a very good track record covering AAPL.

      It’s the “Pros” who, quite frankly, suck. These amateurs kicked butt. Among the most worthless pros were Alex Guano and Katy Huberty. Perennial bottom-feeders of the institutional ranks.

  2. What cracks me up (but it’s no surprise) is that bonehead Cramer. Before the earnings report he said to sell AAPL – “take some money off the table” as it were. Well, if you sold you were as much of an idiot as Cramer. Today he’s saying “Apple just dominates, period.” Gee thanks for the swell advice, Jimbo.

  3. @BMWtwisty

    Actually, Cramer said that DAY TRADERS should maybe sell based on the historical price trends in the days after Apple earnings. He advised INVESTORS to hold, as there was a large risk of selling and then not being able to get back in at a good price

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